Vegas Golden Knights and Montreal Canadiens
The 2021 NHL semifinals weren't billed as much of a mystery. The Vegas Golden Knights and Tampa Bay Lightning, respectively, would win their series and meet in the Stanley Cup Final. End of story. Except, not really.
Updated NHL playoff picks for the Vegas Golden Knights and Montreal Canadiens are a must given how the first four games of the series have unfolded. From controversial goalie changes to nail-biters, this matchup has everything.
More importantly, the Canadiens, with two wins under their belt, are putting up more of a fight than expected. Though the top online sportsbooks continue to favor the Golden Knights, the margin on those lines has thinned from their opening placement. Just check out these latest series-winner odds from BetOnline:
| Series Favorite |  | | Series Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | -325 | +325 | Montreal Canadiens |
Reevaluating The Vegas vs. Montreal Series
Given this shift in dynamics, it's a good time to reconsider, well, everything—the series winner, who will win Game 5, how long the best-of-seven set will go, all of it.
Just remember, as always, to double-check all the NHL playoff odds you see here before placing a wager, as they will continue to move. The ones we're working with are accurate as of Monday, June 21.
Game 5 Odds: Vegas Golden Knights (-233) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+208)
The Golden Knights made the controversial decision to bench star goalkeeper and 17-year veteran Marc-Andre Fleury ahead of Game 4 after his late gaffe in Game 3 allowed the Canadiens to force overtime and eventually pull out the victory. The decision, which we thought was an overreaction, ended up panning out.
While Vegas fell behind 1-0, backup goalie Robie Lehner wound up stopping absolutely everything else that came his way. Montreal didn't score from the middle of the second period on, and he finished with an incredible 96.4 save percentage.
Perhaps Lehner gives the Golden Knights some unexpected stability between the posts. The Canadiens actually got off more shots than their average in this series, and he didn't crack. At the same time, he has fewer than 20 games of total postseason experience, and he didn't face pressure from Montreal's most dangerous offensive players. Regular-season points-leader Tyler Toffoli, for example, only got off one shot the entire night.
Game 5 will prove to be much more difficult in all likelihood. Vegas is still wildly dependent on their defensemen to keep the puck away from their net. They have outshot Montreal by 20 so far and started to show a few more holes in their zone during Game 4 despite the win.
Call us suckers, but we think the Canadiens rebound here, just like they did after their first one-goal performance of the series.
OSB Prediction: Canadiens (+208)
Series Odds: Vegas Golden Knights (-325) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+270)
Following their close-call victory in Game, Vegas' outright odds are actually back up around their opening-line levels (-340). That seems a little ambitious to us given the series is tied.
Of course, on the flip side, we still expect Vegas to take this. They have the deeper defensive lines and are more equipped to turn in four-goal performances thanks to the playmaking of their wings.
Yes, this comes with the caveat we expect them to win Game 5. But that's more of a "They need a wake-up call" pick.
Vegas has consistently played better this season with their backs up against the wall. That includes Game 4, when they needed to drop in two straight goals to even pick up the W.
OSB Series Prediction: Golden Knights (-325)
Series Length Prediction
Generally speaking, we're not the biggest fans of working series-length props. Too many factors are at play over best-of-seven sets, especially in the NHL, where playoff upsets are more common.
Still, predicting the exact outcome of the series isn't a bad risk to take when a best-of-seven set turns into a best-of-three affair. The number of outcomes are far fewer yet you continue to get better odds than you would on regular outrights.
Our pick for this series has already been mapped out for us. If we expect the Knights to lose Game 5 but win the series, we have to roll with Vegas in seven—the odds of which are extremely enticing.
OSB Series Length Prediction: Vegas in seven (+200)
NHL Playoff Parlay Pick
Since we've already outlined three separate picks for this series, why not parlay them? There is a much higher risk given the combination we're rolling with, but the possible payout is huge.
Here's what your bet slip should look like if you're traveling this route with us:
- Montreal to win Game 5 (+208)
- Vegas to win the series (-325)
- Vegas to win the series in seven games (+200)
For every $100 you wager on this parlay, you're looking at a payout of slightly more than 12-to-1. If it hits, that means you'd be getting back $1,208—more than $1,100 of which is pure profit.
Again: Remember this parlay is particularly high-risk. Nevertheless, we like it.
Check out this list of the best online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your NHL betting needs:
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