Not too long ago, the legalization of sports betting in California was deemed a sure thing while the Texas sports betting timeline was considered inconclusive—at best. Now, however, these two sentiments have flip-flopped. Sort of.
At least, this is how BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblattt sees it.
Speaking at the Next Summit 2024 in New York on March 6, Greenblatt touched upon future legal betting markets in the United States. When it came to Texas and California, he sounded fairly certain that the former would warm up to sports gambling first.
“California is not in our near-term model,” he said. “Texas is.”
In all fairness, “near term” isn’t very definitive. We know for a fact sports betting in Texas will not be legalized in 2024. The Lone Star State’s legislature isn’t scheduled to meet again until 2025. Is Greenblatt saying Texas will legalize sports betting at that time? Or is he more so hinting that the legalization of sports betting in California is so far off that The Lone Star State could wait years and still wind up rolling it out before The Golden State?
The Push for Texas Sports Betting Is Indeed Gaining Momentum
In all likelihood, Greenblatt’s comments are probably about the state of affairs in both Texas and California. Let’s begin with the former.
Attempts to bring sports gambling to Texas are clearly picking up steam. Proponents have looked at the sale of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks to a majority shareholder in Las Vegas Sands Corporation, a casino operator, as a sign that things are changing. The Sands Corporation has long tried to commercialize the casino business in Texas. Between purchasing the Mavericks as well as large swathes of land near their arena, many believe they’re preparing for the opportunity to construct a resort-style casino that intersects entertainment and live sports with casino gaming and tourist-driven hotels.
Make no mistake, this is all conjecture. Las Vegas Sands is making a bet on the future of sports gambling and casino gaming in Texas. There’s a chance that they’re wrong. But Greenblatt doesn’t think they are, in large part because of the Mavericks sale.
Sports owners in Texas carry a ton of influence. Jerry Jones, owner of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys, has lobbied state officials firsthand for the legalization of sports betting. Though his attempts have yet to prove successful, this is at least evidence of the reach and access granted to sports owners in the state. Las Vegas Sands has now joined that exclusive clique. It stands to reason that they will try to use their access and influence to change state gaming policies. And mind you, that’s whatever almost every other organization in the market is already trying to do. It is this push from incumbent owners, along with the addition of Las Vegas Sands to the fold, that led Greenblatt to making a pretty significant prediction.
BetMGM CEO Predicts Texas will Legalize Sports Gambling in 2025
Consider the following excerpt from a piece by Geoff Zochodne of Covers:
“The Texas legislature will not have another regular session until 2025, which means any sports betting bills will have to wait until then, barring intervention from the governor. Nevertheless, Greenblatt was asked by CNBC’s Contessa Brewer on Wednesday if the Mavericks acquisition would make a difference with lawmakers. ‘The team owners in Texas are very influential,’ he explained. ‘And so the answer to that is yes.’”
This is a pretty decided prediction as far as legal sports betting in Texas. Most have hesitated to offer concrete predictions. After all, every Texas sports betting bill proposed to this point has failed to make it past the Senate. And only one or two have gained serious traction in the House of Representatives.
Still, that doesn’t mean Greenblatt is wrong. Opposition to Texas sports betting is strong, especially from Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick. But state officials have seemed increasingly open to the idea. The last Texas sports betting initiative generated a ton of support from—and ultimately made it out of—the House. If things change in the Senate, there’s a real chance the gambling laws in The Lone Star State look much different in a year or two.
Even if Texas Doesn’t Legalize Sports Betting in 2025, California’s Timeline Apparently Lags Behind
Just as much as Greenblatt’s prediction is about Texas, it’s also about the future of sports betting in California. Or should we say the lack of a future for sports betting in California?
Ever since two California sports betting initiatives failed to receive voter approval in 2022, the outlook on legalized gambling has appeared overwhelmingly bleak. In fact, as of March 2024, it doesn’t even seem like a sports betting bill will appear on the 2024 general election ballot. The only California sports betting proposals for this year have been roundly shot down by everyone from state tribes to legislature members to active online sportsbooks in the United States.
At this rate, The Golden State may not even revisit the matter until 2025—at the absolute earliest. And in the event a sports betting initiative makes it through the House and Senate, it will most likely need to appear on another general election ballot. Assuming 2024 is out of the question, that’s not happening before 2026. And wouldn’t you know it, that’s also the earliest Texas sports betting projects to be legalized.
Really, then, this prediction from BetMGM’s CEO is a comment on the current dialogue taking place in California and The Lone Star State. A lot will change between now and 2026. Perhaps both California and Texas legalize sports betting. But Mr. Greenblatt’s gut feeling is nevertheless telltale. He’s obviously plugged in given his position, and we already know California sports betting discussions have either stalled or soured. So even if Texas doesn’t legalize sports betting in 2025, there’s an uncomfortably high chance they still manage to green light it before California anyway.
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