UFC 294 might be show of the year in terms of star power. It’s also a show of the year in terms of betting opportunities, particularly the prop market. If you keep reading, we’ll lay out our best UFC 294 prop bets you should be putting money on to profit big come Saturday!
- What: UFC 294
- When: Saturday, October 21
- Where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Betting Pick
By now, you should know that Volkanovski replaced Charles Oliveira in the UFC 294 event. Eleven days is all both Volkanovski and Makhachev have to prepare for one another — though we’re sure facing each other earlier this year helps the situation. When it comes to Makhachev-Volkanovski props, we’re most interested in the exact outcome bet. The name of the game here is to pick who wins and how. Here’s the list of betting options:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volkanovski by Decision | +450 | +450 | +450 |
| Volkanovski by KO | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Volkanovski by Submission | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Makhachev by Decision | +160 | +160 | +160 |
| Makhachev by KO | +400 | +400 | +400 |
| Makhachev by Submission | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Draw | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
In case you’ve forgotten, these two went to war at UFC 284 in February. It ended in a decision in Makhachev’s way (48-47, 48-47, 49-46). Some went as far as to argue that Volkanovski did enough to win. We disagree with that assessment but the point remains: the first bout was a razor-close fight when most didn’t expect it to be.
It wasn’t expected to be close because Volkanovski was massively undersized. The featherweight champion, who’s small in his division, moved up to lightweight to fight for Makhachev’s title. But Volkanovski proved skillful enough to escape Makhachev’s constant takedowns and grappling. Can he do it again here?
This might surprise some of you but we think Volkanovski’s bitten off more than he can chew with this bout. The short-notice turnaround is a bigger detriment to him because at least Makhachev went through a proper fight camp, even if he was preparing for Oliviera. Volkanovski doesn’t have that luxury, plus has to gain weight quickly. The featherweight champ also had hand surgery this past summer.
Our gut says Makhachev is getting an early finish here. These two fighters are evenly matched when both are 100 percent capacity, but we don’t sense that’ll be the case for Volkanovski. To us, a submission finish is a bet worth taking a chance on.
Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev Betting Pick
Here again, we have a late change. Paulo Costa was forced out with injury and in came Usman. The best betting sites for UFC have a range of props on Chimaev vs. Usman too, but the one we have our eye on is the round-by-round betting. The goal here is to pick who wins and when in the three-round fight. The list of betting outcomes is as follows:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Usman in Round 1 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Usman in Round 2 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Usman in Round 3 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Usman by Points | +450 | +450 | +450 |
| Chimaev in Round 1 | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Chimaev in Round 2 | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Chimaev in Round 3 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Chimaev by Points | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Draw | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
This fight is at middleweight — not welterweight where these two fighters have been at for years. Usman was the long-time champion before losing it to Leon Edwards (then dropping the rematch too). The undefeated Chimaev felt destined for a title shot and likely would have if he could actually make weight. He couldn’t (famously missing weight vs. Nate Diaz) so Chimaev joined the middleweight ranks.
The big question that decides this fight in our opinion is the state of Usman — is he washed? Is he not? On one hand, he is 36 years old now, the age when most fighters start falling off. Usman didn’t look particularly good in the most recent Edwards fight earlier this season either. At the same time, it could’ve just been an off-performance (or injury). We all know he was on pace to beat Edwards the year before until a stunning KO in the fifth round.
We have an inkling that Usman is indeed on the decline, which is a bad recipe against Chimaev, who has rag-dolled every opponent he’s ever faced. That’s why we’re betting that Chimaev wins and he wins early. It’s a bit of a crapshoot but a second-round stoppage has the potential to hit big if this is as big of a mismatch as we anticipate.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker Betting Pick
Here’s another doozy of a fight. The best way to bet on Ankalaev vs. Walker might be the go-the-distance prop. It’s a simple yes-or-no wager with the following lines:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +160 | +160 | +160 |
| No | -210 | -210 | -210 |
No way this one lasts three rounds. For one, you have one of the best KO artists in the sport in Walker. Sixteen of his 22 career wins have been by knockout and we fully expect him to go head-hunting in this fight. At the same time, Ankalaev is dangerous too with 10 of 18 wins coming early. This leads us to believe betting no it won’t go the distance is a good play here.
How To Bet On UFC 294?
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