UFC 264: McGregor vs Poirier 3 Betting Picks

Quinn Allen
By , Updated on: May 6, 2024 08:00 PM
UFC 264: McGregor vs Poirier 3 Betting Picks

After two matchups between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier, the two UFC legends are knotted up at one victory apiece. It's only right, then, they square off a third time at UFC 264. And we've got your McGregor vs. Poirier 3 betting picks for the occasion.

Let's start by taking a look at the latest UFC betting odds for McGregor-Poirier, courtesy of BetOnline:

1st FighterBetOnlineBetOnline2nd Fighter
Islam Makhachev-550+400Dustin Poirier
Sean Strickland-200+170Paulo Henrique Costa
Roman Dolidze+150-110Anthony Hernandez

As of this writing, there are a few months before the opening bell of this fight. Make sure you're double-checking McGregor vs. Poirier betting odds prior to deciding on any wagers. The lines will move over time, and this matchup is particularly susceptible to swings since neither fighter is paying out more than even money.

You'll also want to compare betting odds from different sportsbooks. And because you have so much time before the actual bout, we'd recommend checking out the top UFC betting apps to see which specials and sportsbook bonuses you're able to capitalize on.

mcgregor vs poirier betting picks

McGregor vs. Poirier Betting Breakdown

  • Event: UFC 264
  • When: Saturday, July 10
  • Time: 8 p.m. EST
  • Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada

Previous Fights Between McGregor and Poirier

McGregor and Poirier first fought each other back in 2014, the former was at the apex of his powers in the sport. Though the lead-up to the match was filled with trash-talking and debates over who would win, McGregor ultimately made quick work of Poirier, an up-and-comer at the time, with a power right-left combination for a first-round TKO.

Years passed before they scheduled a rematch. We finally got one in January of 2021, more than a half-decade later, at UFC 257. This time, it was Poirier who came out on the offensive, securing a second-round TKO against the 32-year-old McGregor.

Will it be different this time around? McGregor sure believes so. The verbal barbs being exchanged between he and Poirier are even more fierce this time around. McGregor has even threatened to call off the rematch.

The Case for McGregor

It's interesting that oddsmakers have essentially billed these two fighters as co-favorites, with neither laying even money. You'd think McGregor's second-round loss in January coupled with the rust he's needed to work through since his retirement would put him at a severe disadvantage.

Still, McGregor's agility and timing have improved with each fight he's finished since returning to the octagon. He isn't necessarily as quick as he was during his heyday, when he could complete these wild spinning kicks over and over again, but he's generating more power off his back leg when going in for combinations.

One potential issue: stamina.

Not one of McGregor's first few fights back in the octagon have made it longer than roughly three total minutes. The last time he fought for more than four minutes was in 2016. If this matchup goes longer, he is going to be out of his element.

The Case for Poirier

Poirier's case writes itself after UFC 257.

When he first faced McGregor in 2014, he was the unknown. But he has since become one of the biggest draws in the sport—and one of the most consistent winners ever.

Only one of his matches have ended in a loss since 2017, when he went up against Khabib Nurmagomedov. He is landing roughly 5.6 strikes per minute and landing them at a 60 percent clip. That brand of speed and accuracy is reminiscent of a prime McGregor.

Poirier has likewise added more force to his kicks over the years. He has never quite reached McGregor's level in terms of reach and height, but it's a viable counter when his opponent leaves his body open enough.

mcgregor betting picks

Prediction for McGregor vs. Poirier 3

Sometimes, when the odds are this close, people like defaulting to the favorite, however slight. That would be McGregor.

Our advice would be to not go that route. These odds are more reflective of McGregor's popularity. People are more inclined to invest in him because they know him. That has an impact on his odds.

Many will invariably point to McGregor's capacity to get guys on the mat with his quick-fire jabs and kicks. Again: This isn't prime McGregor, but he's comparably threatening on offense.

That doesn't much concern us. Poirier now has 26 total victories to his name, and over the course of his career, he has improved his wrestling and defense in addition to his vertical fighting. Opponents are landing just 46 percent of their strikes against him and just 39 percent of their takedowns.

The hope should be that this fight lasts longer than both the first and second. There are no mitigating factors that could potentially skew it. McGregor and Poirier have never been more familiar with one another, and McGregor isn't so fresh out of retirement anymore.

But that's only more of a reason to pick Poirier. He has more experience at this going the distance and can be a later-round knockout machine. McGregor, meanwhile, has spent under seven total minutes in the Octagon across three fights since making his 2018 return.

So while the odds imply this is a difficult decision, it's really not. Feel free to be on the lookout for props and specific-round wagers as time goes on. Those aren't available yet. Sportsbooks are so far only taking outright bets, and this one's a no-brainer for us.

OSB Prediction: Dustin Poirier (-105)

Dustin Poirier To win beat Conor McGregor

Check out this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your UFC betting:

Meet the author

Quinn Allen

Quinn Allen leverages his broadcast journalism degree and passion for sports in his betting previews and analysis. Based in Kelowna, Canada, he has emerged as an expert voice with picks featured on OSB, MTS, SBD, and as a ClutchPoints editor. With a lifelong fandom of...

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