Thu 24/10/2019 - 10:50 EDT

UFC 244 Betting Odds: Latest Lines and Picks for Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal

Here are the latest UFC 244 odds for the Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal showdown, via Bovada:

  • Nate Diaz (+135)
  • Jorge Masvidal (-165)

UFC betting odds always shift in the lead-up to these main events, so make sure you're double-checking the lines as we get closer.

Our UFC pick 'em predictions are based off these odds alone, but they can be translated across all moneylines you might see, since we're choosing our best-bet winners anyway. In our preview, we'll cover:

  • Complete UFC odds
  • In-depth analysis of Diaz vs. Masvidal
  • UFC picks for the main event
  • Brief breakdowns of the undercard
  • Predictions for undercard fights

UFC 244 Betting Breakdown

Nate Diaz (+135) vs. Jorge Masvidal (-165)

Both Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal enter UFC 244 having spent an extended stint as underdogs. Oddsmakers have decided it's time for Masvidal to be a favorite.

The 34-year-old has been the dog in each of his past five fights, through which he's posted a 3-2 record. The last time he secured favorite status was in December 2016, when he tallied a first-round knockout over Jake Ellenberger.

Diaz is in a similar boat. This will be the seventh consecutive fight in which he's listed as the underdog. Through those previous six underdog matchups, he's an intriguing 4-2.

Comparably interesting, both Diaz and Masvidal registered victories in their previous fights. Masvidal needed just a few seconds—yes, seconds—to knock out Ben Askren.

Diaz, on the other hand, nabbed a unanimous-decision win over Anthony Pettis in what was his first Octagon appearance in nearly three years.

Pundits are giving Masvidal the advantage in part because of Diaz's extended sabbatical.

Diaz, also 34, hasn't been very active since his back-to-back rumbles with Conor McGregor (he went 1-1 in those fights), and Masvidal, at this point, plays with a little more variety.

To that end, both fighters employ a similar style. Neither is an elite wrestler, so there shouldn't be a ton of grappling. They each also like to throw quick multi-strikes and -jabs rather than chase singular knockout-worthy blows.

That said, it is clear at this point that Masvidal has the more powerful frame. He's the more lethal fighter with his kicks as well. Diaz will have to be wary of his early-round flying knees.

This just so happens to be the method by which Masvidal annihilated Askren.

Still, our interest lies with Diaz. He's a much better value pick at +135. These fighters are too close in style for their to be this large of an odds gap. Both should be laying closer to even money. 

If anything, we could make the case that Diaz deserves to be the favorite. No, he hasn't been as active in recent years. But his endurance persists. He still has the stamina edge over just about everyone he faces—including Masvidal.

Look for Diaz to pull off the upset if this fight drifts into later-round territory or goes to a decision.

OSB Prediction: Nate Diaz (+135) 

Kelvin Gastelum (-185) vs. Darren Till (+150)

Darren Till should give Kelvin Gastelum more of a push than these odds imply.

Oh, make no mistake, Gastelum should actually be the favorite. He is the fifth-ranked welterweight fighter in the world right now, and while his 5'9" frame doesn't intimidate, he's weighs in at nearly 185 pounds and packs a ton of power. His 16-4 lifetime speaks for itself.

At the same time, Till is a fighter on the come-up. Indeed, he semi-recently fell to Masvidal, in what was considered a major upset. But his fighter ranking has climbed to No. 34 in the world, and that loss to Masvidal was just the second official one of his career.

Till's length also gives him major upset potential. He gives up around 13 pounds to Gastelum, but he stands three inches taller with an even bigger reach advantage. He doesn't need to be as close to his opponents to deliver powerful belt-up punches. 

Right now, we believe the United Kingdom native is being seriously undervalued. There's some risk here, but we love Till at +150.

OSB Prediction: Darren Till (+150)

Stephen Thompson (-135) vs. Vincente Luque (+105)

So yeah, this fight is happening. You should be pumped.

Stephen Thompson said after UFC 242, in which he was a guest fighter, that he wasn't especially interested in taking on Vincente Luque, who had previously called him out. Alas, in September, it was announced we would be getting this showdown.

Color us concerned about Thompson. He's operating on a two-fight losing streak, and at 36, he looks a step or two slower in the Octagon these days.

Luque, by comparison, is on the rise. He is built to survive the most grueling matches. The proof in his last fight, a brutal affair with Mike Perry. He earned the victory by decision, and truth told, we're expecting a similar outcome at UFC 244.

OSB Prediction: Vincente Luque (+105) 

Derrick Lewis (-105) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (-125)

Derrick Lewis and Blagoy Ivanov are meeting in what is easily UFC 244's toughest match to predict.

Lewis is working off two straight losses, neither of which he finished. He lost by submission and TKO, respectively. Ivanov, conversely, is coming off two straight victories.

Both fighters have high-variance knockout punches in their repertoire. But Ivanov mixes in some other stuff—quick jabs—that will play better if this match goes to a decision.

OSB Prediction: Blagoy Ivanov (-125)

Kevin Lee (+135) vs. Gregor Gillespie (-165)

At long last, a no-brainer fight.

Kevin Lee enters UFC 244 having lost three of his past four fights and has since dropped down to the lightweight decision. His transition comes at an inopportune time. Gregor Gillespie has yet to lose since debuting in the UFC, going a perfect 6-0 to date.

Aside from packing a ton of power with his fast-twitch punches for someone standing 5'9" and weighing 155 pounds, Gillespie is a whiz at anticipation. Though he's known not to watch matchups of fighters in his division, he's revered for how he incorporates the advice of his coaches, both before and during the match.

This combination of evasive savvy and power is tough to find in the lightweight division. This should be a match Gillespie wins beyond a shadow of a doubt.

OSB Prediction: Gregor Gillespie (-165)

Take a look at this list of the best online sportsbooks so that you can decide which one to use for your UFC 244 betting:

Category : UFC Betting Picks

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