UFC 258 Betting Odds And Picks - Analysis for Usman vs Burns

Quinn Allen
By , Updated on: Sep 4, 2022 08:00 PM
UFC 258 Betting Odds And Picks - Analysis for Usman vs Burns

The highly anticipated UFC 258 fight card is nearing. And you better believe we brought out UFC 258 picks just for the occasion.

Most people have their eyes locked on the battle between Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns, but there are a handful of other decent matchups into which you can sink your teeth. Before we get to our predictions, here are the latest UFC 258 betting odds, courtesy of Bovada, which has one of the best UFC betting apps in the market.

Kamaro Usman-275+215Gilbert Burns
Alexa Grasso-140+110Maycee Barber
Kelvin Gastelum-210+170Ian Heinisch
Jimmie Rivera-145+115Pedro Munhoz

Since there is still some time between now and the Feb. 13 opening bell, make sure to double-check these lines at top UFC betting sites before deciding on any wagers. Now, let the UFC 258 betting begin!

UFC 258 Betting Breakdown

We'll start by taking a deep dive into the Usman-Burns bout. After that, we'll jump briefly into the other matches we have circled on our betting slate.

Kamaru Usman (-275) vs. Gilbert Burns (-215)

When he first entered the UFC, Usman was known almost strictly as a takedown fighter. He needed to get his opponents onto the mat with extreme force and little tact to have an advantage. This betting line is a sign of how far he's come.

Sure, Usman is still a terrifying wrestler. After all, that's how he got his start. But he's now a much-improved striker, as he's shown over the past few fights. His accuracy is above 54 percent, and he can throw over four significant strikes per minute.

Partnering this with his wrestling skills creates a dangerous cocktail. He has an accuracy north of 50 percent on his takedowns and averages nearly four of them per 15 minutes of action.

Many people are intrigued by Burns' underdog status because of the frenetic pace with which he fights. He can throw around four strikes per minute himself. And beyond that, he's actually won the past few matchups in which he's been billed as the underdog.

Still, speed won't get Burns very far against this version of Usman. His strike accuracy is well below 50 percent, and he has a takedown accuracy south of 40 percent. We wouldn't call him erratic; he's just not as efficient.

What's more, it might not matter even if Burns has his best fight. Usman is among the best in the business when it comes to absorbing punches in succession. This is the rare fight in which the -275 favorite feels like he's being undervalued.

OSB Prediction: Kamaru Usman (-275)

Kamaru Usman To beat Gilbert Burns

Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Maycee Barber (+110)

This is a tough pull for Maycee Barber in her first fight back inside the octagon. She tore her ACL during her unanimous decision loss at UFC 246 and was subsequently forced to watch from the sidelines for the next year.

Prior to her injury, Barber was on a tear. She packs extreme power. Each of her three previous victories ended in a TKO win.

But it's tough to return from such a serious injury, particularly against Alexa Grasso. Though her start to her UFC career was touch-and-go, she's settled in as a mobile fighter who is able to finish with force when using either hand.

OSB Prediction: Alexa Grasso (-140)

Alexa Grasso To beat Maycee Barber

Kelvin Gastelum (-210) vs. Ian Heinisch (+170)

The action currently favors Kelvin Gastelum in an overwhelming fashion for this one. So far, roughly 74 percent of the bets placed have pegged him to beat Ian Heinisch. We're inclined to agree.

Both fighters are working off victories, but Gastelum really looks at home battling in the middleweight division. He carries the strength and power of a heavier fighter, but he wields vertical speed that is shared by even a few lightweights.

Don't be surprised if this fight doesn't even make it to a decision.

OSB Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum (-210)

Kelvin Gastelum To beat Ian Heinisch

Jimmie Rivera (-145) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+115)

Pedro Munhoz really needs this fight. He's lost each of his past two fights, and he also dropped the last matchup he had with Jimmie Rivera by split decision.

If it's any consolation, Munhoz's two losses have been taken to a decision. And he did beat Cody Garbrandt by knockout before his mini losing streak started.

But Rivera has developed a knack for wearing his opponents down. He's not really a risk to get knocked out, and the longer the fight lasts, the more it favors him. Seventeen of his career victories have actually come by decision.

OSB Prediction: Jimmie Rivera (-145)

Jimmie Rivera To beat Pedro Munhoz

UFC 258 Parlay Recommendation

Since we've selected each of the favorites to win, we're inclined to go with a four-bet parlay on the moneylines. Our bet slip looks like this:

  • Kamaro Usman (-275)
  • Alexa Grasso (-140)
  • Kelvin Gastelum (-210)
  • Jimmie Rivera (-145)

The payout on this parlay is almost 6-to-1 if it hits. For every $100 you wager, you stand to rake in slightly over $583. So...here's hoping UFC 258 goes chalk!

Check out this below list of the best online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your UFC betting:


Meet the author

Quinn Allen

Quinn Allen leverages his broadcast journalism degree and passion for sports in his betting previews and analysis. Based in Kelowna, Canada, he has emerged as an expert voice with picks featured on OSB, MTS, SBD, and as a ClutchPoints editor. With a lifelong fandom of...

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