All eyes are on Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler heading into UFC 262. A vacant lightweight title is on the line, and both fighters have been extremely up front about how they believe it's theirs to lose. But while our UFC 262 betting picks include predictions for Oliveira vs. Chandler, they also consist of much more.
Four other intriguing fights are on the card, including a tantalizing co-main event between Beneil Dariush and Tony Ferguson. Before we get to our picks for all the major bouts, though, here's a look at the latest UFC 262 betting odds, courtesy of Bovada:
Always keep an eye on these UFC 262 odds. They will move between now and the opening bell. We also recommend taking a look at all the top UFC betting apps, so that you can capitalize on any specials that may be running.
UFC 262 Betting Breakdown
- When: Saturday, May 15
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Where: Toyota Center in Houston, Texas
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Michael Chandler (+110)
Remember when Oliveira fell to Paul Felder by knockout in December of 2017? You're forgiven if you don't. That feels like a lifetime ago. Oliveira has been that good.
The 31-year-old has won all eight of his fights since, and seven of them have been decided before going the distance. He still isn't the quickest when it comes to getting in his combinations, but he has drastically improved his accuracy, landing 52 percent of all his strike attempts.
Chandler is more of an unknown. He has plenty of MMA matchups under his belt, but only one at the UFC level: A decisive victory over Dan Hooker at UFC 257.
One match isn't a whole lot to work off. But Chandler's reputation as a quick-fire puncher precedes him. He is landing roughly 4.3 strikes per minute on all his opponents. We'd feel a lot better about his chances if he weren't more of a volume shooter who's prone to missing on his most aggressive combinations, but he's absolutely capable of pulling off the upset.
What this comes down to, in our estimation, is defense. Chandler is still getting a feel for how to avoid his opponent's length when sparring in close quarters, but he's a general whiz at keeping fights off the ground. That's the difference for us, and it's why we believe he will eke out the victory.
OSB Prediction: Michael Chandler (+110)
Beneil Dariush (-145) vs. Tony Ferguson (+120)
When you dive into the stats, Beneil Dariush doesn't have the look and feel of someone who should be the favorite in this matchup. He lands fewer strikes per minute than Tony Ferguson by a substantial margin and doesn't separate himself when it comes to the hit rate on his combinations.
Still, Dariush has not won six straight fights by accident, the vast majority of which haven't needed to go the distance.
He is a genius at evasive maneuvers; opponents are landing under 2.75 of their strikes per minute against him. And though he isn't the most accurate puncher, he knows how to generate serious power on his upper swings.
OSB Prediction: Beneil Dariush (-145)
Jack Hermansson (-170) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (+140)
At -170, Jack Hermanasson is the heaviest favorite at UFC 262. And we get the appeal.
Edmen Shahbazyan is a worthwhile opponent. He is going to turn at least one round of every fight into an outright wrestling match, which can throw off even the top guns. But he still doesn't have Hermansson's relentless speed and accuracy.
Watch Hermansson operate, and you'll see someone with a stance and reach that allows for maximum volume. He is landing more than five strikes per minute on his opponents and converting more than 50 percent of all his strikes, period.
Don't be surprised if Hermansson makes quick work of Shahbazyan.
OSB Prediction: Jack Hermansson (-170)
Katlyn Chookagian (-145) vs. Viviane Araujo (+120)
Oddsmakers are actually a little lower on Katlyn Chookagian than we thought, perhaps because she's dropped two of her last four fights, the most recent of which was a letdown at the hands of Jessica Andrade. Expressing some doubt is fine.
Billing her as less than a -175, however, takes it too far.
This isn't meant to be a shot at Viviane Araujo. She has just five official UFC bouts on her resume, four of which were victories, but she's already established herself as an excellent vertical fighter. Good luck bringing her down to the ground.
And yet, Chookagian has five inches and a bunch of experience on her, not to mention one of the highest stamina levels in all of UFC.
OSB Prediction: Katlyn Chookagian (-145)
Shane Burgos (-125) vs. Edson Barboza (+105)
Kudos to the oddsmakers for taking Edson Barboza's conservative fighting approach seriously. He is blocking 60 percent of all strike attempts and 70 percent of all takedown attempts. That is wild.
But you need a balanced offensive game to win consistently, and Barboza, unfortunately, doesn't have it.
Waiting out opponents can work in some instances. This doesn't look like one of them. Shane Burgos may be coming off a loss in his last fight, but he won his previous three before that while showcasing his lightning-fast footwork and glove work. He is landing over seven strikes per minute, which reads like a typo, but is actually a true fact.
OSB Prediction: Shane Burgos (-125)
Check out this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which to use for all your UFC betting odds:
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