UFC 271 Betting Picks: Israel Adesanya Poised to Dominate Again vs. Robert Whittaker

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
UFC 271 Betting Picks: Israel Adesanya Poised to Dominate Again vs. Robert Whittaker

Who ordered the latest betting odds on the UFC, with a side of extra spicy analysis and predictions? Because, well, your order is ready.

The undercard for UFC 271 is absolutely absurd. There are a bunch of preliminary bouts that will be of interest to fans, but more than that, there are five primetime fights scheduled to take place, all of them basically main events. So not only do we have UFC 271 betting picks for the rematch between Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker, but we're cooking up predictions on the four other highly anticipated fights, as well.

First, though, let's take a gander at the latest UFC 271 betting odds:

Israel Adesanya-270+230Robert Whittaker
Derrick Lewis-180+155Tai Tuivasa
Jared Cannonier-170+145Derek Brunson
Kyler Phillips-425+130Marcelo Rojo
Bobby Green-139+119Nasrat Haqparast

Please note these UFC 271 odds are accurate as of Wednesday, February 9. With UFC 271 taking place on Saturday, February 12, you'll want to double-check these UFC odds prior to settling on any of your UFC 271 picks. As ever, all UFC betting lines are subject to change right up until the opening bell.

In the meantime, we also suggest checking out our online reviews of the top online sportsbooks so you can pluck out the best UFC betting sites in 2022. We also have a list of the best betting apps to use for UFC, so be sure to browse through those and shop around for the juiciest promotions and bonuses!

Adesanya Should be Heavy Favorite in Rematch with Whittaker

It has been more than two years since Israel Adesanya (-270) and Robert Whittaker (+230) have rumbled inside the octagon. And when they last met, Adesanya won in a beyond convincing fashion, delivering a TKO punch at the 3:33 minute mark of UFC 243.

Experts don't expect a similar outcome this time around. Though Whittaker needed to take off for more than a year due to unforeseen surgery since then, he has returned with pizzazz and refined both his offense and defense. He is actually landing more significant strikes per minute than Adesanya, and his ability to block takedown attempts is roughly on par with that of his opponent.

Still, Whittaker doesn't have Adesanya's power behind him. He is more accurate because he focuses on precision and volume over explosion. Adesanya is more apt to prioritize quality and power, which bodes well for him when he follows that model.

Granted, Adesanya has been known to change his style based on his opponent. He suffered a surprise loss to Jan Blachowicz at UFC 253 while fighting too conservatively.  We're confident he won't make the same mistake this time. He has already rebounded nicely, with a victory-by-decision over Marvin Vettori at UFC 263.

OSB Prediction: Israel Adesanya (-270)

Israel Adesanya To beat Robert Whittaker

Can Tai Tuivasa Upset Derrick Lewis?

Tai "Bam Bam" Tuivasa (+155) is a better match for Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis (-180) than these odds imply.

Yes, Lewis is as advertised: more powerful and devastating with his combinations. But this isn't Adesanya we're talking about. Lewis doesn't land nearly as many as significant strikes—roughly 50 percent. 

Tuivasa, on the other hand, is more than doubling his significant strikes per minute. His takedown defense can be a little spotty, but Lewis isn't a wrestler. This match is almost ready-made for Tuivasa to dominate.

OSB Prediction: Tai Tuivasa (+155)

Tai Tuivasa To beat Derrick Lewis

Jared Cannonier Should be in Control vs. Derek Brunson

Jared Cannonier (-170) is hardwired to beat an opponent like Derek Brunson (+145). His capacity to deflect strikes and evade takedown attempts is a rare combination, one not often seen in fighters who also happen to land around 50 percent of their strikes.

The way we see it, Brunson needs a knockout to bag this one. But we don't see Cannonier as someone who will slip up that early in the fight. And the longer it lasts, the more it favors him.

OSB Prediction: Jared Cannonier (-170)

Jared Cannonier To beat Derek Brunson

Marcelo Rojo has No Answer for Kyler Phillips 

We almost feel bad for Marcelo Rojo (+130) as he prepares to go up against Kyle Phillips (-425)

Those who only look at the numbers will see these two fighters land roughly the same number of significant strikes per minute. Watch the film, though, and you'll notice that Rojo absorbs too many opposing blows in the name of propping up his own volume of attempts. In fact, if we look back at the numbers, he's absorbing more than double the number of significant strikes per minute that Phillips does.

Expect this one to be over quickly.

OSB Prediction: Kyler Phillips (-425)

Kyler Phillips To beat Marcelo Rojo

Nasrat Haqparast Wins Battle of Stamina vs. Bobby Green

Defense is the name of the game when Nasrat Haqparast (+119) takes on Bobby Green (-139). While both are a little shaky when it comes to generating knockout power behind their punches, they're also experts in staving off huge blows and takedown attempts.

It just so happens Haqparast is better suited to win a drag-it-out affair. Opponents are landing fewer than 30 percent of both their takedown and strike attempts when going up against him. That doesn't spell good news for Green, who isn't a particularly accurate striker or takedown artist in the first place.

OSB Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast (+119)

Nasrat Haqparast To beat Bobby Green

Take a look this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your UFC betting:

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...

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