UFC 272 Betting Picks: Should Colby Covington be Monster Favorite Over Jorge Masvidal?

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
UFC 272 Betting Picks: Should Colby Covington be Monster Favorite Over Jorge Masvidal?

Fans of online UFC betting should definitely be stoked at this moment. The long-awaited battle between Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal is finally taking place at UFC 272 on Saturday, March 5 inside the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada

Not only that, but on top of this highly anticipated matchup, the UFC has also scheduled four other primo fights for the meat and potatoes of their pay-per-view event. Of course, our UFC 272 betting picks will lead with the headlining showdown and look to decide whether Colby Covington should really be a monster favorite over Jorge Masvidal.

But before we get to our UFC 272 predictions, here are the latest betting odds on UFC 272:

Colby Covington-315+265Jorge Masvidal
Rafael Dos Anjos-165+145Renato Moicano
Bryce Mitchell-165+145Edson Barboza
Kevin Holland-330+270Alex Oliveira
Sergey Spivak-200+170Greg Hardy

Definitely make sure to double-check these UFC 272 betting odds prior to making any of your picks. All UFC 272 betting lines are subject to change right up until the opening bell of each fight. 

With just a few days to go before the big event, we also highly recommend checking out our reviews of the top online sportsbooks. They can help you find the best betting apps for the UFC in 2022And yes, you should absolutely care about identifying those destinations. After all, the best UFC betting sites tend to run promotions in advance of every major fight card—just like the one at UFC 272.

Colby Covington is Far From a Sure Thing vs. Jorge Masvidal

It is important not to let personal opinions get in the way of predicting Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal. The former is considered the most hated man in the UFC, not just by fans, but by fellow fighters as well. Granted, outspoken people always tend to rankle peers and the crowd, but Covington has on countless occasions disseminated controversial and baseless opinions in a derogatory manner. The vast majority of people would like to see him lose.

That doesn't mean he will. In fact, oddsmakers think he's a near-lock to win. And yet, even when we take emotions out of the equation, we find that we disagree. Emphatically so.

Why you ask? Because Colby Covington is the most overrated fighter in the UFC right now. Sure, he has a 16-3 lifetime record in the octagon. And yes, he is a takedown artist, on both offense and defense. But the more technical part of his fighting style is lacking. Covington lands just 38 percent of his significant strike attempts per minute, and his haphazard stances leave him uniquely vulnerable to getting knocked out.

What's more, pretty much any time he's been given a title shot, he's squandered the opportunity. Covington is 1-2 through matches in which belts are on the line. He also happens to be working off two losses over his last three fights, both of which came against Kamaru Usman.

Moral of the story: Don't fall for the hype. Covington is drastically overvalued here, and you are better off rolling the dice on Masvidal and the 4.22 significant strikes on average accuracy he's landing per minute.

OSB Prediction: Jorge Masvidal (+265)

Jorge Masvidal To beat Colby Covington

Rafael Dos Anjos Should NOT be Favored Over Renato Moicano

If anyone figures out why Rafael Dos Anjos is favored over Renato Moicano, please let us know. 

Anjos has lost four of his last five fights, including each of the past two. Opponents with the stamina to hold him off in the first two rounds are almost always going to come out on top. We believe Moicano is not only capable but a virtual lock to do just that.

OSB Prediction: Renato Moicano (+145)

Renato Moicano To beat Rafael Dos Anjos

Take Bryce Mitchell Going Away Against Edson Barboza

Bryce Mitchell hasn't lost an official UFC fight in roughly forever—and we don't expect him to suffer a rare letdown against Edson Barboza.

Those who don't watch a ton of UFC matches will be turned off by Mitchell's relative lack of speed and aggression. He barely lands two strikes per minute. But Mitchell's defense is out of this world. He is absorbing fewer than 1.75 strikes per minute and builds his armory around selective opportunism. 

Indeed, this match may last a while. But when all's said and done, Mitchell will be the victor.

OSB Prediction: Bryce Mitchell (-165)

Bryce Mitchell To beat Edson Barboza

Kevin Holland May Knock Out Alex Oliveira

Alex Oliveira would be a much more intriguing bet if he knew how to evade opponent strike attempts. Alas, that's where he struggles most. And that doesn't bode well for him against Kevin Holland.

Aptly nicknamed "Trailblazer," Holland is currently landing 54 percent of his significant strike attempts per minute. Given how unnecessarily open Oliveira's defensive stance can be, this is just the chance Holland needs to break his streak of three winless matches.

OSB Prediction: Kevin Holland (-330)

Kevin Holland To beat Alex Oliveira

Can Greg Hardy Finally Get Another UFC Win vs. Sergey Spivak?

Greg Hardy has been largely a farce since joining the UFC. He has an above-.500, but he's wilted whenever forced to go up against a marquee opponent. 

While Sergey Spivak isn't quite what you'd consider a top-shelf rival, he has more layers to his arsenal. He can hit you with different combinations, at varying speeds, while positioning his feet in various stances. He is also a whiz at defending against takedowns from larger opponents.

Hardy, meanwhile, is more of a one-dimensional fighter who relies too heavily on his size and wingspan. We like Spivak to pull this one out in a decision.

OSB Prediction: Sergey Spivak (-200)

Serge Spivak To beat Greg Hardy

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your UFC betting:


Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...

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