The middleweight championship will be on the line when Israel Adesanya squares off with Marvin Vettori at UFC 263, and boy is this match shaping up to be a good one. It isn't the only quality battle either. There are four other worthwhile bouts on the docket. So our UFC 263 betting picks for Israel Adesanya defending his title vs. Marvin Vettori won't be the only predictions you're getting!
|UFC 263 Pick|
Like always, be sure to double-check these lines before deciding on any wagers. They will shift between now and the opening bell, and they can vary across different sportsbooks and UFC betting apps.
UFC 263 Betting Breakdown
- When: Saturday, June 12
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Where: Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona
Israel Adesanya (-275) vs. Marvin Vettori (+220)
Were you among the bettors who got burned by Adesanya at UFC 259? He lost to Jan Blachowicz as the heavy favorite, to the chagrin of many.
But this shouldn't impact your view of Adesanya here. That was the first loss of his career, bringing his record at the UFC level to 20-1. He is still the same fighter who generates a ton of power and breaks through even the staunchest defensive opponents.
Good thing, too. Vettori has one of the best strike defenses in the game. That makes him someone who might push Adesanya to a decision. It just won't be a decision that favors Vettori.
OSB Prediction: Israel Adesanya (-275)
Deiveson Figueiredo (-250) vs. Brandon Moreno (+200)
Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno fought to a draw at UFC 256. Our pick then was Figueiredo, and it hasn't changed.
Moreno did a nice job the first time of pushing the pace and rendering Figueiredo less accurate than he usually is on his combinations. But that can only work for so long. Figueiredo will have now had six months to work on his angles when operating at higher speed.
More to the point, while Moreno can generate some power, his high-octane approach leaves him vulnerable to inefficiency and unforced errors. He is landing under 3.5 significant strikes per minute and connecting on his said strike attempts under 40 percent of the time. The math isn't in his favor.
OSB Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo (-250)
Leon Edwards (-450) vs. Nate Diaz (+325)
Anyone excited for Nate Diaz's return to the Octagon for the first time since November 2019 shouldn't hold their breath. He was on the downswing then, and it's unlikely he's emerged from that rut now.
Granted, we don't have the fight sample to know whether he's changed over the past year-plus. But he was struggling mightily to stay on his feet before now. Opponents feasted on him with both quick-fire combinations and takedown attempts.
It helps Diaz that Leon Edwards isn't the most reliable attacker. He is landing fewer than 2.6 significant strikes per minute. But he is methodical with his vertical defense and if you exclude the no contest in his last fight, on a six-bout winning streak.
OSB Prediction: Leon Edwards (-450)
Belal Muhammad (-250) vs. Demian Maia (+200)
It's time to learn Belal Muhammad's name if you haven't already. Though his last fight ended in a no contest, he had won three straight against quality foes beforehand, and he's shown he will give opponents problems on both sides of the coin.
To wit: Muhammad is an opportunistic striker and impossibly hard to hit. Opponents are landing just 15 percent of their takedown attempts on him. His hesitancy on offense can get him into some trouble, but Demian Maia doesn't have the speed or accuracy to take advantage of those moments of equivocation.
Relative to the rest of the UFC 263 card, Muhammad is among the looser favorites. But we view him as a sure thing.
OSB Prediction: Belal Muhammad (-250)
Jamahal Hill (-290) vs. Paul Craig (+230)
There's a reason Jamahal Hill is nicknamed "Sweet Dreams." He is going to knock people down and also knock them out.
With just seven official fights under his belt, Hill sports an undefeated record. He has a few no contests during this time, but he's also turned in a handful of TKOs by punches. He's somehow landing 7.9 significant strikes per minute, making him hell to defend against.
We don't see Paul Craig being up to the task. His strike defense is too spotty. His best hope is that Hill struggles to perform in his first headliner event.
OSB Prediction: Jamahal Hill (-290)
UFC 263 Parlay Recommendation
Since we've gone chalk for this UFC event, it only makes sense to build out a five-bet parlay. To recap, here are our UFC 263 picks:
- Israel Adesanya (-275)
- Dieveson Figueiredo (-250)
- Leon Edwards (-450)
- Belal Muhammad (-250)
- Jamahal (-290)
While your return on this parlay will be somewhat restrained by the absence of slight favorites, you're still looking at a payout of roughly 4.4-to-1. So, for every $100 you wager, you stand to make $440—$340 of which would be pure profit.
Here's hoping UFC 263 is as kind to the favorites as we think it'll be!