UFC 269 Betting Picks: Will Charles Oliveira Upset Dustin Poirier?

UFC 269 Betting Picks: Will Charles Oliveira Upset Dustin Poirier?

Check out our best bets for UFC 269!


Are you ready for UFC 269 on December 11? You better be. There won't be another major online UFC betting event in 2021. This it before UFC 270, which is currently scheduled for the end of January 2022. So you better bring your "A" game.

Fortunately, we're here to help. Our UFC betting picks cover Charles Oliveira attempting to upset Dustin Poirier, as well as all the other major matches on the docket.

Here's a quick look at the latest UFC 269 betting odds, which come from BetOnline:

Dustin Poirier-155+135Charles Oliveira
Amanda Nunes-700+500Julianna Pena
Santiago Ponzinibbio-150+130Geoff Neal
Cody Garbrandt-125+105Kai Kara-France
Sean O'Malley-300+210Raulian Paiva

Make sure you double-check these betting odds on UFC prior to settling on any UFC picks. The lines will continue to move right up until the opening bell. We also highly recommend you peruse our top online sportsbooks reviews and our list of the best betting apps for UFC so you can capitalize on all the latest promotional offerings at your disposal.

UFC 269 Predictions

Pretty much everyone will tune in to UFC 269 for the lightweight title fight between Oliveira and Poirier. But this pay-per-view event is also loaded on the co-headlining cards and undercards. From Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Penna right on through to Sean O'Malley vs. Raulian Paiva, the quality of matchups is through the roof. 

Though there are a bunch of fights scheduled for the big night in Vegas, these UFC 269 predictions will focus on the most pivotal five. We'll begin with the main event, Poirier vs. Oliveira, and then tackle the rest.

Charles Oliveira Rises Above Dustin Poirier

Incumbent belt-holders usually curry favor over their challengers. This matchup is an exception.

Though Oliveira enters with the lightweight championship in tow, Poirier is a former interim lightweight champion who many analysts have billed as the true best fighter across this weight class. His fast and furious style tends to overwhelm opponents. More than half of his victories have come by knockout, and he's landing more than 5.6 significant strikes per minute.

This looms as a somewhat stark contrast to how Oliveira prefers to operate. Less than one-third of his career wins have come by knockout, and he's landing just 3.26 significant strikes per minute. His value comes in an ability to wait out opponents, wear them down and pick his spots, all the while playing good vertical defense.

Whether that style will hold up against Poirier is a matter worth debating. We believe it will. Oliveira is quick and smart enough to avoid Poirier's early and aggressive combinations, and the longer the fight lasts, the more it favors him.

OSB Prediction: Charles Oliveira (+135)

Charles Oliveira To beat Dustin Poirier

Amanda Nunes Makes Quick Work of Julianna Penna

Julianna Penna has put together a handful of impressive victories and enters the fight on Saturday as one of UFC's more dangerous take-down artists. We're just not sure how much that matters.

Amanda Nunes has not lost an official battle in the octagon since fighting at UFC 178...in September 2014. She continues to land 4.5 significant strikes per minute on a better than 50 percent clip, and her take-down defense is perhaps the best in the business.

This is not just a fight Nunes should win. It is one we believe Nunes bags by knockout.

OSB Prediction: Amanda Nunes (-700)

Amanda Nunes To beat Julianna Penna

Geoff Neal Surprises Santiago Ponzinibbio

Lots of people are going to ride the favorite in Santiago Ponzinibbio. He is the quicker striker and more prone to taking high-risk, high-reward maneuvers at any point in a given match.

But that's precisely why we like Geoff Neal to pull off the upset

Despite not operating at the same speed, Neal is averaging close to the same number of significant strikes per minute, and he remains the much better defender. Opponents are failing on 87 percent of their take-down attempts against him.

Expect him to pull this out in a decision.

OSB Prediction: Geoff Neal (+130)

Geoff Neal To beat Santiago Ponzinibbio

Kai Kara-France Sneaks Past Cody Garbrandt

Few UFC fighters are as talented on both sides of striking combinations as Kai Kara-France. The New Zealand mixed martial artist is landing more than five significant strikes per minute while avoiding 66 percent of his opponent's strike attempts.

That isn't balance Cody Garbrandt can keep up with. He is at a speed disadvantage and only landing 3.23 significant strikes per minute. His take-down defense is admirable, but it'll be mostly useless in a matchup with Kara-France, who does most of his work from a standing position.

OSB Prediction: Kai Kara-France (+105)

Kai Kara-France To beat Cody Garbrandt

Sean O'Malley Should Defeat Raulian Paiva

Sean O'Malley has lost just one official UFC fight over the past four-plus years, and we don't see that changing in this matchup against Raulian Paiva.

Paiva deserves credit for his technique. He can be surgical and expedient at once. But O'Malley's connectivity is unrivaled for this weight class. He is landing more than eight significant strikes per minute and is blocking 65 percent of his opponent's strike attempts.

There's a chance this fight goes to a decision. No matter how it ends, though, Sean O'Malley will be the winner.

OSB Prediction: Sean O'Malley (-300)

Sean O'Malley To beat Raulian Paiva

Check out this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your UFC betting:

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. This passion led him to pursue a career in sports journalism, where he reported on various sporting events, ranging from high school games to professional leagues, for several years. Eric now channels his ...