Moneyline betting

There are many NFL betting types — point spread, over/under, parlay, futures, live betting, and a few more. However, the most straightforward type of bet is the moneyline. In this article, we’ll explain what is a money line bet in football, plus a whole lot of tips that’ll help you win thhis type of bet.

After you’re done understanding the football moneyline, you’ll be able to place bets at any of the sites below. Moneyline is a core bet offered at just about any sportsbook so it won’t be hard to find during a regular NFL week. However, we recommend starting with the bookies below, which we’ll get into later in this article.

What Is A Moneyline Bet?

When we said moneyline bets were straightforward, we meant it. In the simplest terms: a football moneyline bet is just picking which team wins the game. That’s it — no spreads, no margins of victory to worry about. Whether it’s a regular-season matchup, a playoff clash, or even the Super Bowl, the concept stays the same: choose the outright winner.

Sportsbooks will give each of the two NFL teams playing a moneyline to win the specific game. You, the bettor, just decide which one wins at the end. Zero need to worry about how much points a team wins by (leave that worry to NFL point spread betting folks).

Many new NFL bettors can overcomplicate gambling at first. Spreads, moneyline, odds — the different terminology can all seem like a lot when starting out. However, knowing what is a moneyline bet in football, and how simple it is, can stop that in a hurry.

How Do Moneyline Odds Work?

So you understand the purpose of the football money line, but next is realizing how much these bets actually pay out. For this part, you must understand sports betting odds.

Each team will have an odd associated with its moneyline, along with either a plus or minus/negative sign. A team can only have one of those signs, not both. For example, say the Packers are playing the Bears. You might see Green Bay at -140 on the moneyline, whereas Chicago could be +120. Whole numbers like -140 are American odds. In Europe, odds are reflected in fractions but if you're gambling on NFL, chances are you're from the States, so we'll stick with American odds in this example.

First things first, those signs indicate who the sports betting favorite is and who’s the underdog. Favorites get minus signs, ‘dogs get plus. So in the above example, oddsmakers believe the Cheeseheads will win.

NFL money lines

When it comes to the potential payout, the easiest way to calculate a winning bet is around a $100 denomination. If you were to risk $100 on the underdog Bears, you’d make $120 profit on their win with +120 odds. But the favorites are flipped. So in order to win $100 off a -140 betting line, you’d need to wager $140.

Get it? And this applies to all minus and positive bets. If a team was favored at -200, the amount needed to be risk for $100 profit would be $200. Since more money needs to be bet to make $100, this -200 odds means that team has a higher implied probabity of winning than the -140 one. The higher these lines go, the more of a heavy favorite or underdog that NFL team is.

On some occasions, you’ll see an NFL moneyline where both teams are priced very closely, sometimes even at -110 each. This is what’s often called a “pick ’em” game — meaning oddsmakers view the matchup as essentially even, with no clear favorite or underdog. True pick ’ems are relatively uncommon, but each NFL season you’ll usually find a handful of games that open or close near even odds, especially in divisional matchups or closely ranked playoff contenders.

How Are NFL Moneyline Odds Made?

Oh, boy, explaining the process behind making the money line football odds is complex. Honestly, it could be an entire article in of itself. But we’ll give you a high-level look at how the “sausage is made.”

First of all, setting NFL moneyline odds in 2025 is usually a hybrid process. Sportsbooks rely heavily on advanced computer models and algorithms that process mountains of data — everything from home-field performance and player efficiency to injuries, weather, and even situational stats. But it’s not only machines at work. Human oddsmakers and trading teams step in to adjust those numbers based on real-time news, betting patterns, and market dynamics. Together, this mix of tech and human judgment determines who opens as the favorite, who’s the underdog, and by how much.

There are also specialized companies and data providers that supply odds and trading services to many sportsbooks. This doesn’t mean every bookmaker is just copying the same numbers — operators often tweak lines based on their own risk tolerance, customer base, and market exposure. That’s why NFL moneyline odds are usually similar across major sportsbooks, but you’ll still notice small differences from site to site. Those small gaps are where sharp bettors often look for value.

Be aware that moneyline odds often shift between the time they’re first released and kickoff. Two main factors drive these swings. The first is new information — for example, if a star quarterback is ruled out late in the week, the odds can move significantly. The bigger the impact player, the bigger the swing. In the NFL, few players shift a line more than Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes.

The second reason why moneyline odds will fluctuate is sports betting activity. If a sportsbook is getting an overwhelming amount of bets one way, say the favored team for example, the lines will change to try to attract more balanced activity. Most of the time, bookmakers don’t want to risk getting overly beat in one direction. If a 50-50 split in bets is more ideal so the odds will change to try to incite that balance.

The thing is, once you’ve made a moneyline bet, you’re stuck with that line. If you took the Patriots as -140, but its odds dropped to -120, you’re still getting -140. Odds changes only affect new bettors.

Betting Moneyline Favorites vs. Underdogs

Many new NFL bettors can become entranced with betting only one side — as in only favorites or only underdogs. We get it too. Favorites are the “safer” pick since computer models think they’ll win. It’s safe to bet alongside a computer, right? Or on the flip side, underdogs pay more. The potential payout of going “against the grain” is tough not to get charmed by.

Listen to us when we say don’t do this. Just don’t. The phrase “any given Sunday” exists for a reason — because anyone can get beat. So that’s why you don’t fall in love with favorites. At the same time, underdogs are underdogs for a reason. More times than not, they’ll lose when they’re supposed to.

Our piece of advice is to avoid this one-sided thinking. It’s way too simplistic to work over a long period of time. To consistently win NFL moneyline wagers, you’re gonna have to do research and actually pick a side. If you're ever making parlays — as in multi-leg bets — it would be smart to mix in favorites and underdogs. You're asking for trouble by parlaying all favorites or all underdogs.

All of this leads us to our next portion of sports betting tips. Read closely because if you really take this in, you can make a huge amount of money from moneyline betting.

What Tips Are There For NFL Moneyline Betting?

Alright, this is what most bettors care about: how do you actually win NFL moneyline bets on a regular basis?

The most important thing you must do is research the game. We know this sounds obvious but you’d be shocked how many bettors “go with their gut.” They’ll see a line and bet then and there. Or worse, if they have an inkling of who will win or lose, they’ll see our information that confirms this. Folks, that’s what we call confirmation bias and we’d caution against it.

What we say is every NFL moneyline bet should start as a clean slate. When researching the specific game, you should really look at the matchups more than anything else. Matchups as in what is a team’s strengths and weaknesses — because every team will have each. So do this for both sides playing.

Once you know this, you can pinpoint possible mismatches. For instance, say the Jets are a strong rushing team. They might be playing the Bills this weak, who struggle to stop the rushing attack. See the mismatch? New York’s strength can exploit Buffalo’s weakness in a head-to-head battle.

You can spot these mismatches by running down a team from top to bottom — coaching, pass offense or defense, rush offense or defender, special teams, and so forth. The more research you do, the more you’ll understand how a particular team fares at all these phases. This is why we harp research so damn much because it’ll reveal insights that’ll help you pick the moneyline.

How To Bet NFL Moneyline?

If you’ve read every word on this page, then you should be ready to bet on NFL moneyline. Remember, you’re just making a bet slip with straight-up winners — that’s all. Any unanswered questions are probably covered in our FAQs section.

Scroll back up and hit one of our recommended sportsbooks (based on our newest sportsbook reviews). Creating an account takes a few short minutes. From there, you can go to the NFL betting menu and see moneylines listed right then and there. After doing some research, pick your side and you should be good to go. Now you wait on the final outcome to know whether you won or lost.

The sites even have a promo or two for sports bettors. With a promo, you could bankroll your first bet and more — for free! Bonus bets could last for a week or even a month so don't overlook this chance for free sports betting!