The 2023 NFL MVP winner is a burning question in the mind of everyone — fans, players, and bettors alike. This article is for the latter crowd because we’ve whipped up a complete guide to bet on NFL MVP award. Everything you possibly need to know is detailed right here so stay with us for money-making advice.

2023 NFL MVP Odds

First things first, what are the NFL MVP odds anyway? Look, these change every week (which we’ll explain later in this article). However, for your ultimate convenience, we want to list the NFL MVP betting odds as it is mid-season. Depending on when you read this guide, things have likely changed but here’s where we have it:

PlayerBovadaBetUSMyBookie
Patrick Mahomes+350+350+350
Jalen Hurts+350+350+350
Lamar Jackson+350+350+350
Tua Tagovailoa+650+650+650
Joe Burrow+700+700+700
Christian McCaffrey+1400+1400+1400

You’ll see all the usual names in the MVP NFL race. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) will be a NFL MVP front runner for as long as he’s in his prime most likely. He’s one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks we’ve ever seen and that won’t just go away so get used to Mahomes name in the mix here.

Patrick Mahomes MVP 2023 Winner

Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) and Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) will likely be consistent NFL MVP candidates. We’ll stop short of putting them in Mahomes territory, but both certainly have elite-playing ability. The trio of throwers are all young too so there’s still some upside left in their talents.

There’s also a crop of new passers getting close to elite status. Names that come to mind are Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles), Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers), Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins), and CJ Stroud (Houston Texans), among others. These are names to look out for because they’re ascending quickly up the MVP NFL ladder and quarterback rankings.

Lastly, don’t forget about active players who are MVP winners already. That includes Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) and Aaron Rodgers (Jets). Repeat champions, especially at the QB position, are more common than you probably think.

How To Understand NFL MVP Odds?

Alright, let’s talk about MVP NFL odds in general. What the heck do these numbers even mean? We understand why current NFL MVP odds could seem confusing, but they’re really not.

Let’s use the latest odds as an example. Notice how all of them have a + sign in front of the line? That means they’re technically underdog bets — which is the norm with these types of bets. With so many sports betting options to choose from for MVP, most players will be longshots to win. The exception here is late in the season when a player starts running away as MVP leaders NFL.

Let’s use Burrow as an example here to understand odds. He’s +700 odds to win NFL MVP award, per our chart. That means a $100 bet on Burrow at those odds would amount to a $700 profit if Burrow indeed becomes the Most Valuable Player of the league. By this alone, you can tell the lower the + number, the more that player is favored to win. This makes Mahomes the NFL MVP betting favorite in 2023 (Mahomes won last season).

Let’s hypothetically say Burrow was -150 to win. A line like that, assuming everyone stays with a plus (+) number, makes him the new frontrunner for NFL MVP 2023. This also changes his potential payout. Now you’d need to risk $150 to profit $100 off an MVP win for the Bengals quarterback.

Why Do NFL MVP Odds Change?

As we said, NFL MVP odds are not static. During the NFL regular season, they change every NFL week. This is because oddsmakers are moving odds based on what’s happening in the field. A player has a monster game? You can bet his Vegas NFL MVP odds will improve. That actually happened in 2023 after the Tua-led Dolphins scored an eye-popping 70 points during a game (Tua contributed four touchdowns).

Obviously, the opposite also happens if a player has a down performance (multiple interceptions thrown), or worse, gets injured. Both situations would be negative for a player in the MVP race NFL, which means the odds will lengthen.

There are companies that specialize in odd-setting. Typically, these places feed the betting sites far and wide. That’s why you’ll see very little variance in MVP NFL odds from site to site. It’s the same odds for the most part because the source is the same.

What Are NFL Futures Bets?

You might hear the MVP bet called a futures. You see, a futures bet is a category of sports bets. Other categories include point spreads, over/unders, moneylines, and parlays.

Futures differ from the other types of bets because they are concerned with future outcomes, as the name hints. Most of the other bets deal with single-game outcomes, whereas futures are seasonal results.

MVP is an extremely popular futures wager in NFL betting. However, it’s not the only one. Other ones include different year-end rewards like Rookie of the Year or Offensive Player of the Year.

NFL MVP Betting Trends

Who is the MVP of the NFL 2023 going to be? Welp, if history is any indication, it’s likely going to be a quarterback. The MVP honor is often called a quarterback’s award and that would be entirely accurate based on recent history.

Can you guess the last NFL player to win the MVP that didn’t play quarterback? Take a guess seriously, we’ll wait.

If you’ve racked your brain enough and need an answer, then here it is: Adrian Peterson. The prolific running back won the MVP award in 2012. Since then? It’s been all QB’s taking the NFL award.

This QB-MVP trend has really taken off since the mid-2000s. That’s around the same time that the NFL relaxed rules for the passing game, which turned football away from its run-first style that dominated before the 21st century. In the years between 2000 and 2006, three of the seven years resulted in a running back taking MVP. Since then, it’s only been Peterson.

It’s practically impossible for any other position to finish atop the MVP race outside of QB and RB. Only three position players beyond those two have won the honor — linebacker Lawrence Taylor (1986), defensive lineman Alan Page (1971), and kicker Mark Moseley (1982; strike-shortened season). Yes, a kicker really did win MVP once. If we were you, we wouldn’t bank on that ever happening again.

Given this history, we would think twice about betting players like Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) or Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings), as an example. Phenomenal talents, but they’re much more likely to win Offensive Player of the Year than the MVP award.

It’s a longshot to win MVP for other positions because they don’t touch the ball as often as quarterbacks (on every single play) and running backs (maybe 400 touches for a workhorse player). So don’t go fall in love with sports betting underdogs, which leads us into our betting advice section.

NFL MVP Betting Advice

Want to know the common denominator between most NFL MVP award winners? It’s not the one who scores the most TDs. It’s not the one who gets the most passing yards. Oftentimes, the MVP award goes to the best player on the best team. It’s really that simple.

We mean, it’s almost impossible to win MVP on a team that’s not one of the contenders for a 2023 Super Bowl title. The MVP argument falls flat on its face: how can you be the most valuable player on a team that’s hardly winning? Obviously, individual numbers contribute to MVP chances — but it’s not the number-one ingredient typically. Not as much as winning at least.

More MVP betting advice: don’t make just one futures bet. If you’re betting early enough in the season, then almost every MVP candidate will have plus-money odds. This gives you a cushion to “spread the wealth” on multiple players without completely killing all your profits. Given the unpredictability of who wins MVP, you want options instead of going “all in” on one person.

Plus, the last thing you want is your MVP bet to injure himself mid-season and get shelved. You can’t win MVP if you’re not on the field. This is football, after all, so injuries will likely spring up. In the event they do, at least you have a backup bet ready.

How To Bet On NFL MVP Odds

Want all NFL betting in one spot, including the MVP race? Hit one of the betting sites you see listed below then (each rated high in our latest sportsbook review). These are the “cream of the crop” when it comes to NFL odds, promos and bonus bets (easily rivaling what BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel can offer), and so much more. Current MVP betting odds can be found here and with the advice we laid out, you should be more than ready to cash in on this.


Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...