NFL Point Spread Betting Explained | How Football Spreads Work

When it comes to betting on the NFL, few wagers are more popular than the point spread. In fact, relative to sports betting at large, the NFL point spread is among the most popular wagers. Many would even call NFL betting spreads one of the OGs of the entire industry.

For anyone who might be unfamiliar with these bets, football point spreads entail wagering on a matchup’s point differential. These margins are communicated using the traditional American moneyline format, in which a minus symbol (-) denotes the favorite and the plus sign (+) is reserved for the underdog.

Here is an NFL point spread betting example for a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, exactly how it would be written at a sportsbook:

As you can see, the Chiefs are favorites in this game. If you take their 4.5-point spread, you need them to win by at least five points for your bet to hit. Conversely, if you take the Ravens +4.5, they need to lose by four or fewer points or pick up the victory for your wager to be successful.

You will notice that NFL point spread betting doesn’t technically require you to determine the winner of a given game. You instead want to ballpark how close the scoring margin between two teams will be.

If you successfully choose that margin, this is known as “covering the spread.” For instance, if the Chiefs win the above game by seven points, they have covered the NFL betting spread. On the flip side, if the Ravens lose by three points, they have covered the spread.

Finally, the -110 next to each point spread indicates your prospective payout. Anytime you see a minus symbol (-) in this space, this number is showing you how much money you must wager to profit $100. In this case, a -110 means you must stake $110 to win $100 on top of your initial investment.

While almost every point spread pays out using a minus symbol (-), you may occasionally see plus signs (+). This will be most common when you use an odds boost, which is effectively a way for you to customize the NFL spread to adjust your prospective return.

Using our Chiefs vs Ravens hypothetical, some sportsbooks may allow you to move Kansas City’s point spread to -10.5 at +150. For this line, you need the Chiefs to win by at least 11 points. And if they cover, you will profit $150 for every $100 you stake.

Though the overall concept of the football point spread is pretty straightforward, there are multiple legs to interpreting it. Let’s go ahead and break down every element or potential outcome of NFL betting spreads, then, shall we?

To illustrate how NFL point spreads work, we are going to reference the following hypothetical sports betting line:

How to read NFL point spreads

Reading NFL point spreads starts with understanding what, exactly, the number that’s the same for both teams actually means. In our example, it is 8.5.  That is the margin of victory you’re betting on.

Margins of victory are simply a game’s point differential. So for Bills vs. Jets, the line is saying that the matchup will be determined one way or the other by a number smaller or bigger than 8.5.

From here, you need to look at the symbols to the left of 8.5. The minus sign (-) is reserved for the team most likely to win the game outright while the plus sign (+) goes to the squad considered least likely to win outright.

If you see a Bills -8.5  line, it means they must beat the Jets by at least nine points to cover the spread. On the other side of the equation, if you see Jets +8.5, it means they must lose the game by fewer than nine points or notch an outright victory to cover the spread. 

Last but certainly not least, the larger numbers with a minus symbol to the right of the point spread reflect your potential payout. For our hypothetical, these numbers are -115 and -105. While you can use an odds calculator to show how much you might win, figuring out yourself is actually pretty easy.

Anytime you see a minus symbol (-) next to a moneyline, it is telling you how much money you must bet to profit $100. So for the Bills’ point spread payout, a -115 means you must bet $115 to make $100. Your payout, in this case, would be $215 total, your initial investment, plus the $100 profit. It works the same way for the Jets at -105. This is telling you that you must bet $105 to profit $100. 

While almost every point spread pays out using a minus symbol (-), you may occasionally see plus signs (+). These moneylines show you how much you will win for every $100 you stake. So if you see the Jets’ point spread pays out +105, you would profit $105 for every $100 you stake.

Adjusted NFL point spreads

The best NFL point spread betting sportsbooks will allow you to customize your lines in order to tailor your potential payouts. These are known as adjusted NFL point spreads.

Relative to our Bills -8.5 vs. Jets +8.5 example, an alternate spread lets you move the line in exchange for different odds.

For example, a bettor could move Buffalo from -8.5 to -10.5. Because the Bills would now need to win by at least 11 points, the potential payout would normally increase:

If the Bills win by 11 or more points, the Buffalo bet covers. The Jets bet covers if New York wins outright or loses by 10 points or fewer.

A bettor could also move Buffalo in the opposite direction, from -8.5 to -6.5. This makes the favorite easier to back but usually results in less favorable odds:

Since winning by two or more points is easier than winning by five or more points, you must now bet $145 on the Bills to cover if you want to profit $100. For the Jets, though, you are now saying they will lose by one point or win the game. This ratchets up the risk since they are the underdog, and you would win $115 for every $100 you stake. 

How NFL point spread bets are settled

Unlike wagering on the over/under, NFL point spread bets cannot be settled until the game is officially over. That’s because the final scoring margin won’t technically be known until the ultimate outcome is decided.

As for how these settlements work, let us return to our 4.5-point spread for the Bills and Jets to see every possible outcome:

How to identify the favorite and underdog

Differentiating between the NFL spread favorite and NFL spread underdog is a cinch. It is done by looking at which symbol is to the left of the point spread itself. 

A minus sign (-) denotes the favorite while a plus sign (+) is reserved for the underdog. So when you see Bills -4.5, you know that Buffalo is the favorite.  And when you see Jets +4.5, you know that New York is the underdog. 

How pick’em lines work

An NFL pick’em line means the sportsbook has not assigned either team a point-spread advantage. It is usually displayed as PK or 0, so the selected team must win the game outright for the bet to cash.

Pick’em bets are still commonly priced with vig, such as -110 on both teams. A line of -0.5 or +0.5 is not technically a pick’em spread because the half-point affects settlement and removes the possibility of a push.

How NFL game locations impact the point spread

NFL teams are usually given the benefit of the doubt when playing at home. This does not mean they are always favored to win, but it does impact the set up of the point spread.

Assume the Bills and Jets are playing in Buffalo, and the Bills are favorites. Their point spread will be statistically larger than if they were favorites on the road.

This is what that might look like in practice. Here is a point spread in which the Bills are favorites at home:

And here is a point spread from the same season in which the Bills are favorites on the road:

Although this is framed through the Bills’ lens, you can see that it works both ways. Even though they are projected to lose in both cases, the Jets are longer shots on the road (+8.5) than they are at home (+4.5).

Covering the spread, pushes and losing bets

Anytime you partake in NFL point spread betting, you may be exposed to a few different terms and phrases. They can be confusing if you don’t know what they mean, but they are easy enough to understand. Let us go ahead and run through the most common examples you will come across.

NFL key numbers and vig

There are four numbers you need to know before betting on NFL point spreads. Three of them refer to the most common lines. The other is the standard payout for covering the spread.

The numbers you must know are as follows:

• 3, 7 and 10: These three numbers represent the most common scoring margins in football. Many NFL point spreads are therefore built in their image. To be sure, you don’t often seen flat -3 point spreads, but you will routinely come across -3.5, -7.5 and -10.5
• -110: This is the standard pricing for NFL point spread. Most of the time, any team that covers the spread will pay out at -110 rate, which means you’d need to wager $110 to profit $100. With that said, there are fairly frequent exceptions. Depending on certain factors, you might see -115, -105, even something like -107. While it’s not impossible to see a point spread payout with plus-sign pricing (+), we would estimate that 99% of NFL point spread bets pay out between -105 and -115, with the vast majority of those being -110.

The vig, also called juice, is the sportsbook’s built-in margin on a wager. On a standard NFL point spread priced at -110 on both sides, a bettor must risk $110 to win $100.

If both sides attracted equal action, the sportsbook would collect $220 in losing and winning stakes, return $210 to the winning side and retain $10 before operating costs. This built-in difference is the vig.

Reduced-juice pricing can lower the cost of betting. For example, a spread priced at -105 requires a $105 stake to win $100, making it more favorable than the same line at -110.

Failing that, browsing the market for sportsbooks that charges the lowest fees is a good baseline strategy to employ.

Best sportsbooks for NFL point spread betting

The moment many of you are waiting for has officially arrived: It’s time to run through the best NFL point spread betting sites.

Plenty of good options are out there on the open market. For the purposes of this exercise, though, we have pinpointed three of our favorites.

Bovada: adjusted point spreads made common

The NFL betting experience at Bovada sportsbook is first-rate from top to bottom. But they really outdo themselves with NFL point spread betting customization. 

These alternate lines or adjusted point spreads are a fairly new feature in the industry. Bovada, however, has turned it into standard fare on almost every bet.

Essentially, you are no longer limited to just the initial spread. You have the ability to adjust every single line to your liking.

If the Bills are 4.5-point favorites but you want to increase your potential payout, Bovada will let you move them to 7.5-point or 10.5-point favorites. 

You can also lower the underdog’s spread to increase the payout on that end. Instead of Jets +4.5, perhaps you want to go with Jets +2.5. No matter what you’re looking to do, Bovada can make it happen.

Lucky Rebel: a haven for reduced juice

The folks over at Lucky Rebel sportsbook let you lower the implied vig more often than anyone.

Like we mentioned before, most football spread sportsbooks assess an implied vig with their standard -110 pricing. If there was no fee, you would need to bet $100 to profit $100. In most point spread cases, you have to bet $110 to profit $100.

Oftentimes, though, Lucky Rebel offers point spread bets that are -105. Beyond that, they will often run specials where you can lower the vig to a pick ’em payout (i.e. wager $100 to profit $100). These special circumstances are especially prevalent around the start of the NFL, as well as the beginning of the NFL playoffs.

BetUS: NFL point spread betting made versatile

No matter how you prefer to bet on the NFL point spread, BetUS sportsbook is bound to have you covered.

Looking for early NFL point spread betting lines? BetUS has them. Most of the time, they will have the week’s point spreads settled by no later than Monday night.

Interested in betting on live point spreads? With the exception of Bovada or BetOnline, nobody in the biz offers these real-time updates as widely and accurately as BetUS.

Need an NFL point spread betting site with a strong user interface on mobile devices? You already know where this is going: BetUS has the goods. Their basic color palette may rub some the wrong way in other areas, but it makes navigating specific bet types super easy.

How we rank NFL spread sportsbooks

We rank NFL spread sportsbooks primarily on pricing, line variety and reliability. Our sportsbook testing process reviews how each operator performs before and during NFL games.

Live NFL point spread betting

Live NFL point spread betting is exactly what it sounds like. You are wagering on teams to cover the point spread while the game is happening.

In the past, live NFL point spread options were fairly difficult to come by. Not anymore. They are standard NFL betting options for basically every game.

These NFL point spread betting live opportunities also give you the chance to capitalize on alternative lines. Many sites provide real-time NFL spreads for individual quarters and halves. So if you like, you can bet on the Bills to cover a first quarter or first half point spread without regard for how the rest of the game plays out.

Factors that move live NFL point spreads

Now, there are a few factors you should weigh before placing your bets on live NFL point spreads. They are as follows:

• Current Score/Game State: The current score of each game can impact the return on your point spreads. If you are watching a blowout for instance, the standard pricing for a favorite may go from -110 to to -115 or even -120. That said, if you are live betting on the point spread for an individual quarter or half, the underdog out may see its market move in that direction, as the assumption is the favorite will take its foot off the gas.
• Time Remaining: Live point spreads are often larger earlier in the game than they are in the third and fourth quarters. The second half of games is also where you will see the biggest deviations from standard pricing.
• Player Injuries: Point spreads can be dramatically impacted if a key player leaves the game. The biggest difference will be felt if it is a star quarterback, wide receiver or running back who’s forced out of the competition.
• Possession Time: If one team has the ball for a significantly longer period of time, live NFL point spreads will start to shrink. The thinking here is that one team dominating time of possession translates to fewer scoring opportunities for everyone.

NFL spread betting tips

There is no quick and easy way to ensure a high success rate on NFL point spread bets. But there are a few NFL spread betting tips that help you make measured decisions.

These are the most important factors to consider, or avoid.

Point spread vs. moneyline and totals

Point spread betting is a member of the Big Three of NFL wagering. It appears right alongside moneyline bets and over/under bets.

Granted, we should probably expand this to the Big Four, since NFL props are more popular than ever. But searches for “point spread vs moneyline” or “point spread vs totals” are among the most common inquiries.

And with that in mind, let’s break down each wager type, so you can understand the differences between them:

• NFL moneyline betting: These wagers entail picking a straight-up winner. You either pick the favorite or the underdog, and that’s it. These bets are not subject to standard pricing. The favorite can pay out something like -450 while the underdog pays out +800. It does not follow the -110 blueprint.
• NFL point spread betting: As we have covered extensively, NFL point spread betting consists of you predicting a ballpark scoring margin. If you are dealing with a 4.5-point spread on Bills (-4.5) vs. Jets (+4.5), the question is this: Will the Bills win by five or more points and cover, or will the Jets lose by fewer than five, win outright or play to a tie in order to cover? Unlike NFL moneyline betting, point spread wagers usually follow a -110 standard pricing model. This means the team that covers would pay out a $100 profit for every $110 you stake.
• NFL totals betting: Whether you are betting NFL futures or on a single game, a wager on totals refers to a final number. The over/under for a single game is the combined score from both teams. If Bills vs. Jets has an over/under of 46.5, the “over” covers if they combine to score 47 or more points, while the “under” hits if they combine to score 46 or fewer points. Like point spread betting, over/under totals follow the standard -110 pricing. That said, you will see over/under totals veer away from standard pricing more than you’ll see it with point spread bets.

Problem gambling help and responsible betting

Sports betting should be treated as entertainment, not as a way to make money. Set clear limits before betting and stop if gambling begins to affect your finances, relationships, work or wellbeing.

• Only bet money you can afford to lose.
• Set deposit, wagering and time limits before you start.
• Never chase losses or borrow money to gamble.
• Take regular breaks and use sportsbook self-exclusion tools when needed.

Free and confidential support is available:

• National Council on Problem Gambling — Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET for 24/7 support and referrals to local services.
• Gamblers Anonymous — Find free in-person, virtual and telephone recovery meetings.
• Gam-Anon — Support and meetings for family members and friends affected by someone else’s gambling.
• Responsible Gambling Council — Educational resources, warning signs and practical guidance for reducing gambling harm.

Support is available whether you are concerned about your own gambling or someone else’s.