California Sports Betting Remains Years Away

The wait for California sports betting legalization sounds like it’s going to drag on.

This may come as something of a surprise to many, including those closely monitoring the situation. Since competing measures to legalize sports betting in California flopped back in 2022, all indications are that tribal nations and commercial sportsbooks have developed a much better, more collaborative working relationship.

And yet, tribal leaders and spokespeople continue to preach patience. In years since, no California sports betting bill has earned serious consideration from the House of Representatives or Senate. Sure, frameworks of an initiative have been laid out. But nothing has come close to advancing to the later stages of the process.

As it stands, The Golden State will be hard-pressed to cobble together a ballot measure for the 2026 general election. And that is assuming stakeholders are even angling for that timeline. The latest development suggests they may not be.

California Sports Betting Likely Won’t be Legalized Before 2028

During the recent Tribal Partnerships Seminar in Barcelona, key figures discussed the future of online sports betting in the United States, as well as the timeline for California sports betting. Their gist of their messaging: It’s not happening before 2028. Here is John Cunningham of San Jose Inside with more:

“During discussions focusing on gambling trends and prospects in California, these leaders clarified their position: Sports betting remains years away from implementation in the state. However, James Siva explained that responses show how some Californians remain skeptical about bringing sports gambling to their state. The tribal representatives agreed that while change might happen by 2028, tribes must lead such efforts rather than lean toward corporate gambling interests. The tribes seemed comfortable with this slow approach, preferring to get things right rather than rushing into new gambling territory without proper groundwork and public backing.”

This echoes much of what’s been said over the past few years. Tribal nations have exclusive rights to gambling in California. They want to preserve that control with sports betting. This proved to be a sticking point during the 2022 campaign process. It no longer seems like a roadblock now.

Commercial operators such as FanDuel and DraftKings have routinely commented on the importance of collaborating with tribal nations as they seek to enter the California sports betting market. The companies have even made strategic hires aimed at improving the relationship dynamic.

Still, with tribal leaders continuing to emphasize the importance of tribal control, it’s clear that some semblance of tension endures. That is not the end of the world. To be honest, it is expected. But it does speak to the enduring delay behind the formulation of California sports betting proposals. Clearly, there are still issues to be hashed out.

California Voter Sentiment Comes into Play, Too

This part of the California sports betting process isn’t receiving nearly enough shine. For so many, legalization is considered a foregone conclusion. It is simply a matter of tribes and commercial sportsbooks figuring out how to coalesce, so that one side isn’t counter-campaigning against the other.

But as Siva explained at the Tribal Partnerships Seminar, all of the stakeholders seem cognizant of voter perception. Siva noted that “some Californians remain skeptical” about sports betting. That makes sense. Remember, voters rejected both California sports betting proposals back in 2022. Majority support is not guaranteed just because The Golden State profiles as the biggest sports betting market in the country.

If anything, this increases the importance of a joint measure backed by both tribes and commercial operators. Perhaps voter sentiment is more definitive than a few years ago. But on the off chance it continues to straddle the fence, it makes more sense to have both parties promoting the same ideals and setup. Otherwise, there could be a repeat of 2022.

To that end, exercising patience makes sense. At the same time, it’s tough to tell whether the current California sports betting dialogue is born from an abundance of caution or disagreements not yet public.

Potential Disagreements Over California Sports Betting Likely Have to Do with Operational Independence

For as much progress as tribes and sportsbooks appear to be making, we would guess the central issue between them hasn’t changed.

As far as we can tell, tribal nations are open to California online sportsbook partnerships. They do not seem willing to let commercial betting sites operate on an independent basis. Right now, it is tough to tell whether online sportsbooks in the USA are on board with this approach, or if they are holding out hope for more flexibility over time and following further negotiations.

Beyond that, it isn’t totally clear what prospective partnerships look like. Many point to the setup of sports betting in Florida, where Hard Rock partners to operate the Seminole Tribe’s sports betting offerings. If that’s the direction in which California sports betting heads, a couple of questions must be cleared up.

Will only one sportsbook be allowed to partner with all tribal operators? Or will there be individual contracts that companies must win by pitching and bidding? And how will the revenue sharing work? Will California online sportsbooks receive a flat rate for their services, or a percentage of the profits? If it’s the latter, how large is that percentage?

By now, it’s pretty apparent that California sports betting negotiations have a lot of wrinkles left to iron out. In fact, unless something changes, a 2028 sports betting launch might even be too ambitious.

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