Both series in the NLDS are nicely balanced at 1-1, and with the seeded sides both on the road for their next two respective fixtures, both ties are nicely set up for potential shocks. So, here we take a look at both series ahead of Friday’s matches and also name our latest MLB betting picks.
Scorelines of 1-1 after two matches ensures both series will go to at least four matches in this stage of the MLB postseason playoffs. It had also opened up the betting to win the National League Pennant, as we now see the odds on both the Padres and the Phillies shortening - although the status quo of the LA Dodgers as the favorites still holds firm.
The Dodgers are now +145 to win the National League Pennant. They are followed by the Atlanta Braves at +250, and then we have the San Diego Padres at +400, and the Philadelphia Phillies at +425.
|2022 National League Pennant Betting|
|San Diego Padres||+400|
The above odds are supplied by BetOnline. You can read all about their latest betting offers and promotions at our BetOnline sportsbook review.
Now let's take a closer look at the state of play in both series, starting with the Phillies and the Braves
Braves win second match to restore parity
It was a start to the series to dream of for the Phillies. Coming on the back of their two wins over the Cardinals in the wild card series, the Phillies held a 7-3 lead after five innings of the first match. They survived a late fightback from the Braves to win the first match 7-6.
Defeating the Braves 7-6 in Gm1 of their #NLDS today, the @Phillies start a #Postseason year 3-0 for just the 2nd time in their history (Other: 2010). Excluding the neutral site 2020 postseason, they and the 2014 Giants are the only teams to start 3-0 by winning all 3 on the road pic.twitter.com/1hKw8JERXo
— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) October 12, 2022
The Braves aren't the World Series champions for nothing though, and they won the second match at SunTrust Park 3-0 to level the series at 1-1.
So where does this leave us now?
Was the first match a blip, and the Braves are going to run away with the series now? Will the Phillies take advantage of two home games to sew up the series? Or maybe we are going to get a back and forth affair going right down to the wire and needing a fifth and deciding match?
The series betting from the best MLB betting sites says it's close. BetOnline makes the Braves the betting favorite at -150, and have the Phillies at +130.
In props betting, the sportsbooks say it's 50/50 about going to a fifth and deciding match. Under 4.5 games is -115, and over 1.5 games is also -115.
Series correct score betting sees 3-2 to the Braves at +185, while a 3-1 win for Brian Snitker's team is +250. If you think the Phillies will win, then 3-1 is +325, with 3-2 at +375.
Finally, on the handicap line, Phillies +1.5 games is -280, while the Braves at -1.5 games is +220.
Braves v Phillies Series Betting Pick
For my Northern Division series betting pick I’m hedging my bets. I feel this series has a good chance of going to a fifth and deciding match. But rather than just bet on over 4.5 games in the props market, I’m going to back the Braves to win 3-2 at +185, and the Phillies to win 3-2 at +375.
It makes it a more risky bet, but the rewards will be greater if the Phillies pull off a shock win. If the Braves win 3-2, it will be a similar return to betting on over 4.5 games.
Dodgers pegged back after winning start
When the Dodgers won the opening match of the series 5-3, it had a feel of normal service about it. They had a 14-5 record against the Padres during the regular season, and it looked like more of the same was continuing.
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 12, 2022
So, when the Padres fought back to win the second match 5-3, they took a lot of people by surprise, and totally opened up the series. It also made a difference from a betting perspective, as to win the series, the Dodgers are now -170, with the Padres still the outsiders at +150.
In props betting, there is similar value to that of the Braves and the Phillies. In the series correct score market, the Dodgers to win 3-2 is +185, with a 3-1 series win for the favorites at +240. As for the Padres, they are +400 to win 3-2, and +310 to win the series 3-1.
Moving onto the series handicap, San Diego (+1.5) is -285, while the Dodgers (-1.5) are +225. If you are thinking of betting on the Dodgers on the handicap at +225, you may as well take the +240 available on them to win the series 3-1, as they would need to win by that margin for the handicap bet to win.
Finally, the total games market is also a 50/50 bet. Over 4.5 games is -115, and that is the same odds as under 4.5 total series games.
Dodgers v Padres Series Betting Pick
I’m still sticking with the Dodgers, they’ve been too dominant since early in the season, so why abandon them now? I’m tempted by the -170 to win the series. But I’m going for both 3-1 and 3-2 to the Dodgers in the series winner betting for my MLB pick. That way if the Padres do win another game, we win more money.