Opening Day is less than a week away and after looking at the American League MVP odds and predictions, we should examine the National League MVP odds.
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The Baseball Writers' Association of America members vote to determine the recipients of the MVP honors. As it's a voting process, the writers tend to consider factors beyond just statistical prowess when selecting the award winners.
Paul Goldschmidt finally won the award last season after previously finishing as the runner-up twice in 2013 and 2015. Although Goldschmidt finally won the award after leading the Cardinals to an NL Central crown and playoff berth, he's not one of the favorites for the award this season.
Let's break down the contenders for the NL MVP and see who the oddsmakers are tabbing as the favorite.
| Player |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | +550 | +550 | +500 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +650 | +750 | +850 |
| Trea Turner | +800 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Mookie Betts | +900 | +900 | +850 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | +1200 | +1000 | +1200 |
| Freddie Freeman | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Manny Machado | +1400 | +1400 | +1500 |
| Pete Alonso | +1600 | +1400 | +1500 |
| Austin Riley | +1800 | +1600 | +1500 |
| Nolan Arenado | +1800 | +1600 | +1400 |
Juan Soto
Last summer, the Padres acquisition of Juan Soto from the Nationals was the surprise move of the trade deadline. Despite the hype surrounding the 24-year-old superstar, his time with the Padres was underwhelming.
He had a career-low batting average of .236 and an OBP of just .388. He is a career .301 hitter and former Rookie of the Year winner, so perhaps there's hope for his MVP hopes, but it feels like the oddsmakers have mispriced him as the favorite at +550 odds.
This doesn't feel like a good value bet at all, I'd have to recommend against Soto for MVP props.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Ronald Acuna Jr. also seems to have a lot of hype surrounding his MVP possibilities. He didn't look like he had fully recovered from his 2021 ACL tear last season posting some disappointing numbers in 119 games.
He had a dismal .266 average, .764 OPS, 15 homers, and 50 RBI, which is a far cry from the upside he displayed in 2019. He hit 41 homers, stole 37 bases, and have 101 RBIs.
The potential of him recapturing that ability must be the reason his odds are so favorable. I'd advise against betting on Acuna Jr. with these odds.
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts finished 5th in MVP voting last season and helped lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to the best record in baseball with a franchise-record 111 wins. Betts led the league in runs scored with 117 and was 5th in the league with 35 home runs.
However, he only had a .269 batting average and finished behind teammate Freddie Freeman in the MVP vote last season.
Despite battling with his teammate for credit for the Dodger's success, Betts is only 30 years old and I could easily see him stepping up his production and adding another MVP trophy to pair with his 2018 AL MVP award.
I would recommend betting on Betts with odds at +850.
Trea Turner
The Phillies are hoping Trea Turner can make an MVP-like impact after signing him this offseason. Turner delivered an impressive season for the Dodgers last year that included a .298 batting average, 100 RBIs, and 27 stolen bases.
He doesn't strike out very often and he if could get his power numbers back up to his 2021 season when he hit 28 homers, he has a ton of potential. I can see the path for Turner to win the award and with third-best odds at +1000, seems like it could be worth a sprinkle.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tatis is a perplexing MVP candidate, making it difficult to understand his current MVP odds of +1000. These are the fifth-best odds and despite Tatis' talent, he'll have to overcome being suspended for the first 20 games of the season due to his PED violation from last season.
In addition to missing the first 20 games, he hasn't had a regular-season at-bat since October 3, 2021. It's fair to presume Tatis is going to be rusty when he faces big-league pitching for the first time in 18 months.
While the Padres have one of the most talented rosters in the league, it's difficult for me to see Tatis winning this award, and would have to advise on passing on any Tatis MVP props.
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Other options
Last year's winner, Goldschmidt doesn't look like he's completely out of the MVP race. His power numbers remain among the most consistent in baseball and his timely hitting has led to plenty of wins for his team. If he can stay healthy, he has a decent shot of repeating.
If you're interested in sprinkling some on Goldschmidt to repeat, I'd say +1200 odds seem fair.
Goldschmidt's teammate, Nolan Arenado seems like a better bet to win the MVP this season. Arenado finished third in MVP voting last season, marking his sixth top-10 finish for the award.
His consistent history of elite production at the plate combined with a remarkable streak of 10 straight Gold Glove Awards, gives him an advantage over several of the other contenders.
I would recommend betting on Arenado at +1400 odds due to the tremendous value. The oddsmakers have made a mistake on this one and I'd hurry to take advantage of it before they adjust his odds.
Best Bet
There are two NL MVP props I would recommend this season. The first is the aforementioned Nolan Arenado at +1400 odds. He's simply too talented of a player to have the 5th best odds.
The second MVP prop I would recommend is betting on Mookie Betts at +850. He is another talented player that I could see winning his second MVP award.
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