NASCAR Playoffs: Xfinity 500 Picks

NASCAR Playoffs: Xfinity 500 Picks

The NASCAR Playoffs continue this weekend with a round of 8. Last Sunday saw another driver who is out of championship contention win in Miami, with Kyle Larson coming out victorious. That sets the stage for a thrilling race this time around at Martinsville. Larson led for 199 of the 267 laps to capture his third first-place finish of the season.

Heading into Sunday, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, and William Byron are among possible drivers to clinch their spot in the Championship 4, although there will be lots of other drivers taking the track as well, vying for a chance to compete for the title. As for betting, Elliott is a +650 favorite here, followed by Hamlin (+700), Ryan Blaney (+800), Byron (+800), and current leader Logano (+900). Keep reading for the Xfinity 500 picks.

Before we get into the preview, odds, and predictions, check out our how-to bet on NASCAR page.

Xfinity 500 Odds

BovadaOdds
Chase Elliott+650
Denny Hamlin+700
Ryan Blaney+800
William Byron+800
Joey Logano+900
Martin Truex Jr+1000
Christopher Bell+1200
Kyle Larson+1200
Ross Chastain+1400
Kevin Harvick+1600
Kyle Busch+1600
Tyler Reddick+2000

This race takes place in Martinsville, Virginia. It's a very short track of just over 0.5 miles per lap and the drivers go around a total of 500 laps for 263 miles. It's the 35th race of the season and the second-last before the championship in Phoenix in early November. The green flag drops around 2 PM ET.

Xfinity 500 Betting Analysis

It's understandable why Elliott is a frontrunner in the sportsbooks here. He won at Martinsville in 2020 en route to the NASCAR Cup championship that year. Also, Hendrick Motorsports has come in first in three of the last four Xfinity 500 races, which bodes well for Sunday. Alex Bowman won in 2021. Elliott did well on this track during the spring too, before a penalty that dropped him back into the top 10. While Elliott hasn't finished better than 14th in his last three outings, he's a guy who can come up with a big performance. Definitely worth a look in the Xfinity 500 picks.

Logano at +900 is one to keep an eye on. He's currently the top dog in the playoff standings and has a respectable record at Martinsville. He finished top-5 in both races here in 2020 and came in second in the spring. Logano is thriving at the moment, winning at Las Vegas a couple of weeks back. Overall, he typically drives very well on this track and that is certainly an important factor ahead of Sunday. But, he's already booked a spot in Championship 4, so there isn't much motivation for him. 

Byron is one of the most intriguing potential picks. Byron won in the spring here after leading for 212 laps at Martinsville, capturing consecutive top-five finishes on this track in the past as well. With a slim advantage after Homestead, Byron almost needs a win or second-place finish to book his spot in a first-ever Championship 4. You'd have to believe he's pleased to know Martinsville is the next race given the success he's enjoyed.

Hamlin is one of the favorites behind Elliott, but it's hard to understand why. He's typically very poor at Martinsville, finishing outside of the top-10 in four of his last five outings, including a 28th-place finish in the spring.

Reddick is another driver who is usually in the mix, but history says he's not a good pick. He's never finished above eighth at Martinsville and he's just finished in 35th in Miami.

Lastly, Martin Truex Jr. He's won three of the last six Martinsville races. Need I say more? He almost won at Homestead too.

Xfinity 500 Picks

As for a winner, I'm going to go with Chase Elliott. He's honestly due for a victory and this will do a lot for him to advance to the final four. When you look at his success at Martinsville, it makes sense at +650. Next, Truex Jr to finish top-five. He's a beast on this track. Also, I'm liking Byron for a top-five finish. He might miss out on the Championship 4, but Byron will at least put together a respectable performance here.

Chase Elliott To win Xfinity 500
+650
Bovada
Martin Truex Jr To finish top-5 at Xfinity 500
+170
Bovada
William Byron To finish top-5 at Xfinity 500
+145
Bovada

Take a look at our reviews of the top online sportsbooks for your best betting needs, including our GTBets review:

Meet the author

Quinn Allen

Quinn is an experienced sports writer who has been writing about sports betting for OSB for years. He writes about NBA, NHL, boxing, NASCAR and college sports.