The European Union appears to be on shaky ground. It’s currently a 27-country pact inside the continent but things could be changing with tensions flaring in different directions. In this article, we’re predicting which country could be exiting the European Union next by invoking Article 50. If we’re right, there’s a pretty penny to be made on the futures betting markets.
You see, top-notch political betting sites have released odds on this potential scenario. At the moment, the following countries are being favored to leave the EU most by online oddsmakers:
| Country |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | +275 | +275 |
| Poland | +550 | +550 |
| Greece | +550 | +550 |
| France | +800 | +800 |
| Hungary | +800 | +800 |
| Netherlands | +1000 | +1000 |
| Czech Republic | +1000 | +1000 |
What Is Article 50?
Whoever leaves the union next will need to invoke Article 50. This is the official clause in the European Union's Lisbon Treaty that allows a country to exit. Per the clause’s own language, “any member state may decide to withdraw from the union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.”
Article 50 has been invoked only once — of course, by the United Kingdom, in what is known as “Brexit.” A majority of British voters voted to defect from the EU back in 2016, which set the process in motion. The UK officially exited the EU in 2016.
Upon the UK’s decision, many expected more countries to follow. That hasn’t happened yet but it certainly feels like it’s getting close. As always, shifting policies put countries on edge with one another. The pandemic has also accelerated those pressures. Let’s next cover the most likely countries to bolt from the Union courtesy of Article 50.
Top Betting Picks To Leave European Union Next
Look, the geopolitical landscape isn’t easy to forecast. That’s partially why the aforementioned betting odds are rather scattered with only one country (Italy) a clear-cut favorite to bolt from the continental pact. Therefore, we will be making several different picks to leave the European Union next. It’s the smart betting strategy and at these steep prices, it’s completely doable without going deep “in the red.” We have our eyes set on betting on the following three countries:
Hungary
If we could only bet one country to leave the EU, it would be Hungary. That's because the country's prime minister Viktor Orban has strong ties to Russia's Vladimir Putin. Obviously, Putin has the entire continent on edge right now with his invasion of Ukraine. With no end in sight, countries may have to "pick sides" and all signs point toward Hungary aligning itself with Russia, a country not in the EU themselves.
Earlier this year, the Hungarian government outright denied that Orban teased the idea of withdrawing from the EU during a campaign rally. But "where there's smoke, there's fire" and Orban has spent the past 12 years in power tightening restrictions around media, academics, political opposition, LGBT rights, and more. Those policies are very Russia-like and very anti-EU. Orban remains a giant wildcard and to us, one that is more than likely to bolt out of the EU sooner rather than later.
Poland
Poland already has already coined a term for its hypothetical exit of the union — Polexit. While the term won't win any style points for originality, it shows just how real the possibility is for the rising country. Conservative members of Poland's United Right coalition haven't been quiet about the possibility either. Earlier this year, Janusz Kowalski lashed out at the EU for treating Poland “like a colony” and floated the idea of following the path of Brexit.
During this same time, Poland went against EU recommendations to cut VAT on heating and electricity bills. It was one act of defiance, but one that could open the doors for many more, before the inevitable split of the EU entirely.
Italy
Italy is the odds-on betting favorite to leave, which makes sense given the turmoil the country finds itself in currently. Prime Minister Mario Draghi abruptly announced he'll soon resign — another shock to the economy struggling to find footing post-pandemic and mid-war in Eastern Europe. Until we know whether Draghi is truly gone, and if so, who replaces him, it's tough to predict Italy's future standing in the EU. That's why we're less sure about picking them, at least compared to Hungary and Poland, who have governments already known to oppose the EU in certain respects.
How To Bet On Politics?
You just never know when the first domino will fall in the European Union — maybe later this year, or the next, heck perhaps three years from now. That murky timeline makes laying a bet on this political event more difficult than say wagering on who will win an election on a predetermined date. The difficulty comes in tying up your money for an unknown period of time without knowing when or if there will be a result.
That’s why we advise managing your bankroll tightly here. There will be an abundance of betting opportunities in the coming months — MLB, fighting, and the return of football. You’ll want to have cash on those rather than tied up to a futures bet that can hit at any time. Still, throwing some bucks on this EU exit future is worth it cause the payoff could be steep. Use the underneath table to find the best bookie to gamble on by reading our unbiased sportsbook reviews.
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