US Election Betting Odds

First and foremost, we want to make sure you understand how to bet on political odds. Understanding the different betting types (while they’re fairly straight forward) will help you figure out which bets are the smartest, and will win the most cash.

Elections are long and drawn out – especially the US election, where a term lasts four years and candidates essentially begin campaigning for the following election as soon as the President takes office.

The first step is to understand Presidential betting odds.

US Election Betting Odds

When it comes to political betting, the odds are usually the most important puzzle piece, as you have to be able to understand the difference between an underdog and favorite, as well as recognize which candidate the sportsbooks are adjusting lines for, and where the consensus is leaning in terms of betting dollars.

With the American odds format, each candidate will have a negative or positive number next to their name, and that signifies the likelihood of them winning the race. So if Donald Trump has -110 odds to win the 2024 US Presidential Election, and Joe Biden has +125 odds, this indicates that Trump is more likely to win the election with his -110 odds.

A negative number indicates a favorite, but in the case of two positive numbers, let’s say +125 and +250, the +125 would be the favored candidate.

These odds can also be displayed in fractional or decimal odds, depending on your online sportsbook. When it comes to calculating probability – there really isn’t a rule for American odds, so it’s important to convert your odds to decimal.

How do you do this? For positive odds (underdog political odds) let’s say +300: 1 + (odds / 100) = 1+(300/100) = 4.0

For negative odds (favored political odds) -300: 1 – (100 / 300) = 1.333

Now that you have your decimal odds, we can help you calculate your winnings and implied probability. Decimal odds are essentially your odds multiplied by your stake, then subtract your stake.

4.0 odds would be calculated as (4.0 * $10) – $10 = $40 in winnings 1.33 would be (1.33 * $10) = $10 = $13.30

To calculate your implied probability of winning your bet, you essentially divide 1/decimal odds which is 1/ 4.0. This gives an implied probability of 25%. Implied probability is an important part of your political betting strategy and will help you improve your chances of winning in the long term.

If you did well in math class as a kid, you’re well on your way to understanding fractional betting odds. If you see a fractionated number, like 10/1, this means someone has a ten to one chance of winning the election.

The formula looks like this: B/(A+B) = %

For example, if the political betting odds are set and a candidate has 9/1 odds to win, there is a 10% chance they will win the election. 1/(9+1) = .10 (10%)

So, how much will you win on fractional US election betting odds? It’s pretty simple actually. For every value on the right side of the fraction you wager, you will win the left.

So 9/1 odds – for each $1 wagered, you will win $9. 1/ 4 odds – for each $4 wagered you win $1.

US Election Futures Betting

The only real betting option for political betting is the futures market. A futures bet is essentially a prediction of a certain outcome, and who will win.

You can place a bet on the Odds to Win the 2024 Presidential Election and have a list of candidates to choose from with differing odds depending on how likely it is that they win.

You can score some great value on presidential futures, or any political futures if you predict the outcome of the political race. Many favored candidates have plus-money odds, even if they’re most likely to win. The further away you lock in your bet, the better the odds usually are, as political odds are always changing and it’s important to keep an eye on them.

Other popular US markets include predicting the Democratic or Republican Candidate, the winning party, popular vote winner, the gender of the next President, House of Representatives election winner, and even state-by-state Congressional District bets.