The 2023 Rugby World Cup has now been and gone, and attention for the Northern Hemisphere nations turns to the next big international rugby competition, the 2024 Six Nations. Yes, with England the surprise package in the World Cup, we look at their chances of potentially challenging Ireland and France in next year’s Six Nations. The countdown is already on, and the latest rugby futures markets give England more than an outside chance of winning.
- France (+130) and Ireland (+150) have dominated the Six Nations across the past two seasons and are the two betting favorites again in 2024
- The English (+300) are the most successful side in the history of the competition, with 29 outright wins
- But the English have only won one Six Nations in the last six years, with their last win coming in 2020
- In the last three years, England hasn’t finished in the top two of the competition, with third in 2022 being their best recent performance
- The competition starts on February 2nd, with France and Ireland meeting in Paris, and concludes on March 16th, 2024
Northern Hemisphere falls short at the 2023 Rugby World Cup!
The 2023 Rugby Union World Cup in France was meant to be the tournament that the Northern Hemisphere nations finally got on top of their counterparts from the south. Ahead of the four quarter-final matches, there was talk of a clean sweep for the north over the south.
In the end, the Southern Hemisphere showed the Northern Hemisphere that they still hadn’t caught up enough, and no fewer than three Southern Hemisphere nations - South Africa, New Zealand, and Argentina - progressed to the semi-finals. And who was the one nation from the Northern Hemisphere who made it to the last four and took bronze at the World Cup? Yes, the much-maligned England.
England are your #RWC2023 bronze medallists! 🥉#ARGvENG pic.twitter.com/XdNrX38OZf
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 27, 2023
So, after doing better than their Northern Hemisphere rivals in the World Cup, what chance England can again get the better of the likes of France and Ireland in the 2024 Six Nations?
Latest 2024 Six Nations Winner Betting
To give you an indication of how the best online rugby betting sites see England’s chances of success in 2024, let’s take a look at the odds from 2023. Before the start of the 2023 Six Nations, Ireland was the favorite to win at +140, with France at +170 and England at +400.
In the latest 2024 Six Nations betting odds, France leads the way at +130, with Ireland at +150, and England is now just +300. The French and the Irish have flipped. But this is down to the French having a home-field advantage when the two favorites meet in the upcoming competition. Ireland had a home-field advantage in 2023 and started the competition as favorites.
The big shift in the betting is on Steve Borthwick’s England. No one expected them to reach the semi-final at the World Cup. Some even suggested they would struggle to get out of their pool. So for them to have reached the last four and eventually pick up a bronze medal for coming third was a huge shock and has led to them being cut in the betting to win the 2024 Six Nations.
| 2024 Six Nations Winner Betting |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | +130 | +130 | +130 |
| Ireland | +150 | +150 | +150 |
| England | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Scotland | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Wales | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Italy | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
The fixture list isn't favoring England
As the Six Nations is an intense competition with six teams competing, the teams only play each other once, rather than home and away. This means the home fixtures swap every year, and one year they can be favorable, and the next year, less so.
In 2024, England will have only two home matches at Twickenham. They are against Ireland and Wales. England will have three matches on the road, away to Italy, Scotland, and France. Even assuming that England can win their two home matches and also win away in Scotland and Italy, it would still leave them potentially going to Paris needing a win in the final match of the tournament on March 16th.
And the last time England went there in the Six Nations, it didn't end well.
Match report | France win the Grand Slam in Paris with a 25-13 victory. Read the full report on our website.
— England Rugby (@EnglandRugby) March 19, 2022
These fixtures aren’t exactly favorable to England. Which makes it all the more surprising that their odds are shortening.
Why have the bookmakers cut England's odds to win?
So where has this optimism come from? Well, apart from finishing third in the 2023 World Cup, this will be the first time that England head coach Steve Borthwick will be able to implement his ideas and start building a team for the future. When Borthwick took over in late December 2022, the World Cup was nine months away. This left him with no time to build his team and implement his ideas on the squad. He had to try and make do with the structure already in place.
Now, Borthwick will be starting with a clean slate and will be able to build a team in his style and stature. England fans can expect changes, and more importantly, they can now expect to see progress.
Stick with the favorites
These changes may work immediately for England, but they also may not. England should improve. But the chances of them going to Paris and beating France to win the Championship look a long way off.
So, for our early 2024 Six Nations pick to win the competition, we would still go with France. The French are a far more stable unit, and they have home matches against both Ireland and England. This should be enough to see them win their second Six Nations title in three years.
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