Who do Bettors Favor?
The best online sportsbooks show that in the Copa Del Rey Final Match Outcome markets, bettors are strongly favoring Real Betis at odds of around +110, Valencia are clearly rated as the underdogs at +200, and the draw can be backed at +240. Betis are also listed as favorites at -150 in the tournament winner's markets, while Valencia are available at Evens.
| Copa Del Rey Winner |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | +120 | +112 | +111 |
| Draw | +240 | +245 | +240 |
| Valencia | +215 | +215 | +201 |
The Unpredictable Copa Del Rey
The Copa Del Rey is known for being a far more unpredictable competition than La Liga. Of the main three Spanish teams, Real Madrid hasn't won it since 2014, and Atletico Madrid’s last success was back in 2013. Since 2000, Espanyol, Zaragoza, Deportivo la Coruna, Mallorca, Betis, Sevilla, Valencia, and Real Sociedad have all won it, and this year offers another opportunity for a mid-ranking team.
Both of this year's finalists have won the trophy, although their previous achievements are vastly different. Valencia has appeared in 17 finals, winning nine of them, including in 2008 and 2019, whereas Betis has only appeared in four finals, winning two of them, the most recent in 2005.
How the Finalists Reached the Final
Real Betis' first significant test came in the round of 16 against local rivals Sevilla, after overcoming CFI Alicante, Talavera, and Real Valladolid in the early rounds of this season's Copa del Rey. They won 2-1 in that match before beating Real Sociedad 4-0 in the quarter-finals, but they had to work much harder in the semi-finals. After defeating Rayo Vallecano 2-1 in the first leg, they fell behind 1-0 in the second leg before Borja Iglesias scored an injury-time equalizer to send them through.
Valencia had the simplest path to the final, having defeated four clubs from lower leagues and then defeating Cadiz in the quarter-finals. Valencia faced a more difficult battle in their semi-final against Athletic Bilbao, but a goal by Goncalo Guedes just before halftime in the second leg guaranteed them progression after a hard-fought 1-1 draw in the first leg.
Real Betis v Valencia: Head to Head
Valencia and Real Betis have played one another 51 times in competitive games and Valencia have the clear edge. Los Che have won 27 of the matches, with Real Betis claiming 13 and 11 games tied. Thus far, they have played four games in the Cup, though none in the final, and Valencia have won three of those matches, with one finishing as a draw.
But recently, Betis have enjoyed the upper hand, beating Valencia in two of their last three fixtures, a run of results that includes a 4-1 victory in La Liga in October. In fact, during what has been a difficult spell for Valencia, they have beaten Betis only once in their last five games.
Copa Del Rey Team Form
Betis have been having an excellent season, and in fact, between early December and the end of February, they remained third in the league table. Unfortunately, losses to Sevilla and Atletico Madrid, combined with the resurgence of both Atletico and Barcelona, have seen them drop to fifth. They also exited the Europa League last month, losing out to Eintracht Frankfurt.
Valencia had fallen into the bottom half of the standings after a run of seven games without a win, but their form has improved since the end of February, with three victories and two draws. Still, given that all five of those games were against clubs in the bottom seven, the turnaround isn't as dramatic as it appears, sufficing to keep them near the middle of the table but not much more.
Best Picks for Copa Del Rey Final
Valencia's current form, along with Betis' recent drop down the table, may lead bettors to back the underdogs here, especially given their great record in this competition, but it could be a mistake.
Valencia's run of success has come against some of La Liga's weaker clubs, and there are still doubts about their ability, even if the threat of relegation has been effectively eliminated. Simply put, Betis are a far superior team, managed by Manuel Pellegrini, a seasoned manager with great credentials at the highest level.
They are not just the better squad, but they also enjoy home advantage, as this game is being played in Seville. In fact, you could argue that they should be a lower price to win this game, and I believe it is sensible to choose them to win in regular time. We can also expect a tight and cautious game, and I'm betting on a low-scoring game in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.
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