What: Copa Libertadores Final 2022
Who is playing: Flamengo vs. Athletico Paranaense
When: Oct. 29 at Estadio Monumental in Guayaquil, Ecuador
The Final of the Copa Libertadores is set for the end of the month as Flamengo and Athletico Paranaense will square off on October 29 at the Estadio Monumental in Guayaquil, Ecuador, in what is effectively the Champions League for South American clubs. The two Brazilian sides advanced to the Copa Libertadores Final after competing throughout the season with other CONMEMBOL clubs. Now that the pool is down to its two final clubs, we're going to go over the best betting picks for the 2022 Copa Libertadores Final, as well as the best soccer betting websites.
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Copa Libertadores Final Odds
Below you can find the odds for the 2022 Copa Libertadores Final between Flamengo and Athletico Paranaense.
|Flamengo||-1 (-107)||-185||O2.5 (-107)|
|Athletico PR||+1 (-113)||+500||U2.5 (-117)|
Flamengo is considered to be heavily favored over Athletico Paranaense in this matchup at (-180) odds, and it's easy to see why. In their four most recent matchups, Flamengo has won two, lost one, and tied one. The goal differential between the two clubs during that span, however, is 6-1 in favor of Flamengo, who bested Athletico PR 5-0 on Aug. 14. They played again on August 17, with that game ending in a 1-0 victory for Flamengo, too.
In the Brazilian Serie-A table, however, these two teams are neck and neck. Through 29 games, Flamengo sits in fifth place (48 pts) in the league, while Athletico PR is on their heels in sixth place (47 pts). Despite their proximity in the Brazilian Serie-A, Athletico Paranaense is still deemed a long shot to win the game in regulation at (+560) odds.
A draw is also not considered likely, though the two sides have tied in one of their last four outings. At (+300) for a draw, the bookmakers don't seem to think it's going to happen.
Copa Libertadores Final Prediction
Flamengo vs. Athletico PR prediction
Flamengo is led by their elite goalscoring duo of Gabriel Barbosa and Pedro. The pair have combined for 21 goals on the season, 20 of which have come from open play, with only one penalty goal between the two of them. They also have playmaking wizard Giorgian De Arrascaeta in the midfield, who has provided 10 assists on the year. Flamengo is a superior side to Athletico PR both offensively and defensively. This season, Flamengo has scored 48 goals, which ranks first in the competition alongside Palmeiras, who are the Brazil Serie-A's first-placed team. Defensively, they've conceded fewer than one goal per match, having seen just 28 goals through their net in 29 games. That ranks in the top five in the league. Despite losing two of their previous three games, Flamengo has been in strong form since mid-July. Across all competitions from July 13-October 3 (a span of 22 games), Flamengo has won 16 games, tied 4 games, and lost just twice. Of those 22 games, they've held teams scoreless in 12. Additionally, Flamengo has scored at least two goals in 13 of those 22 games.
As for Athletico Paranaense, despite being in sixth place in the Serie-A, they are far more penetrable defensively. Athletico PR has surrendered 33 goals in its 29 games while scoring 35 themselves. Their 33 goals allowed are tied for the most among teams in the league's top half, showing their vulnerability on defense. Still, 35 goals on the year from the offense is a solid goalscoring output, though nothing spectacular. Athletico PR's recent run of form, however, has been somewhat concerning. Since August 14, Paranaense has just three victories across all competitions. Of course, one of those was their decisive 1-0 victory against Palmeiras which secured their spot in the 2022 Copa Libertadores Final. Still, during that poor run, Athletico PR has lost three games (by a combined score of 8-0) and tied five. The club was held to fewer than two goals in all but three of its most recent 11 games. Paranaense is led by goalscorer and playmaker David Terans in the attack. In Serie-A play this year, Terans has scored 9 goals and leads the team with 3 assists, too. No other player on the team has more than 4 goals this year.
Copa Libertadores Final Pick
This game doesn't bode well for Athletico Paranaense, based on their recent form. With so few wins over the last month, the team will need to play some of its best football of the season in order to stun Flamengo. Meanwhile, Flamengo is red hot and looking to maintain its strong run of success. While the game is likely leaning in favor of Flamengo, the best pick for this matchup is the U2.5 goals. Only one of their last four matchups has gone over this mark, and with Athletico PR out of form and struggling to put up goals, they could very get blanked by Flamengo in the final. At (-117) U2.5 total goals seems like a strong play.
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