Since 2012, PSG has established a stranglehold over the rest of Ligue One, but Marseille looks a good pick to challenge that dominance 2023/24
Who do Bettors Favor?
According to the best bookmakers (and you can check out our top sportsbook reviews here) PSG is once again the overwhelming favorite with bettors to win Ligue One. The Paris club is as short in the market as -400 in some places. Marseille is the nearest challenger on around +1100, while three clubs: Lens, Lille and Monaco, are all priced at roughly +2000.
| Ligue 1 Winner |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| PSG | -390 | -400 |
| Marseille | +1125 | +900 |
| Lens | +2000 | +2000 |
| Monaco | +2000 | +2000 |
| Lille | +2100 | +2000 |
| Lyon | +2700 | +2500 |
| Rennes | +2600 | +3300 |
| Nice | +5800 | +5000 |
OSB Ligue 1 Betting Briefing
Most of the top European soccer leagues are dominated by a tiny number of big teams, but in France, the situation is even more exaggerated as one team has been able to outspend all of its rivals, along with most of the rest of Europe, for several years.
Paris St Germain has won Ligue 1 an astonishing nine times since 2012, and was on top again last season, although only by a single point from Lens. That means five of the last six Ligue 1 titles have been won by the team from Paris, and until other French clubs are able to match PSG’s spending power, that situation is not going to change.
One additional factor to note going into this season is that the league will include 18 teams rather than 20, so the competition is likely to be a little tougher this time round.
No Value in Picking PSG
Given the huge disparity in resources that exists between PSG and the rest, the fact that the champion club won Ligue 1 by one point last season suggests it underperformed.
It may also be a sign that PSG might be vulnerable going into the new season. The club has begun a significant rebuild with the arrival of Luis Enrique as head coach and the departure of Lionel Messi. Eleven players have gone out from the club and ten have been added, and there remains some doubt over the future of Kylian Mbappe, who is said to be a target for Real Madrid.
On paper, PSG’s squad is the strongest in the country by a long way, but if last season’s one point win is a good reflection of the club’s current state, the odds on a win in 2023/24 offer no value.
Betting on Ligue 1 Main Contenders
Which of the top contenders is therefore best positioned to dethrone PSG if they are weak this year? Marseille is the most likely alternate Ligue 1 champion, according to the betting markets, and manager Marcelino has been handed extra tools to maintain a push after last season's campaign fizzled out and left them in third place.
The Marseille squad will gain depth from the additions of Ismaila Sarr, Renan Lodi, Iliman Ndiaye, and Ruslan Malinovsky. Pierre Emerick Aubameyang will bring elite European experience, while the acquisition of Geoffrey Kondogbia from Atletico Madrid appears to have been a very wise move.
The Ligue 1 Winner Without PSG market also offers gamblers the chance to back Marseille with a little extra insurance, given how much ground it has to make up on PSG.
Betting on Ligue 1 Top Four
The supremacy of PSG in French football has inevitably encouraged other clubs to look for access to the same level of resources, most notably Lyon.
Prior to the PSG era, Lyon dominated French football, winning seven straight Ligue 1 championships from 2002 to 2008 and going into this season, there is once again optimism at the club due to the presence of new US billionaire owner John Textor.
Although having a billionaire owner doesn't ensure success, it will help level the playing field a little. While Lyon isn't yet ready to compete with PSG, it does stand a decent chance of outperforming its seventh-place result from the previous campaign and cracking the Ligue 1 Top Four.
Strasbourg is more of a long shot to make the Top Four, but it could offer value. The parent company of English Premier League team Chelsea has acquired the club, but stability has been preserved as president Marc Keller will continue in his position.
According to Keller, Strasbourg will be more than just a feeder club and although there is much work to be done to improve on last season's unsuccessful campaign, it is clear that this is a club with big ambitions and elite European football connections. The appointment of Patrick Vieira as the new head coach is a clear statement of intent and if things go well, a Top Four finish is plausible.
Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on Ligue One
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