Argentina vs. Australia Betting Tips and Picks

Argentina vs. Australia Betting Tips and Picks

  • What: Argentina vs. Australia, 2022 FIFA World Cup - Knockout Stages (Round of 16)
  • When: Saturday, December 3, 2022, at 2:00 p.m. EST
  • Where: Ahmed bin Ali Stadium in Qatar
  • How to watch: Peacock

After taking first place in their group with a 2-0 win over Poland on Wednesday, Lionel Messi and Argentina have advanced to the round of 16 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Argentina will face Australia in the knockout stages on Saturday, Dec. 3 as they look to continue their run toward the Finals. Australia clinched their spot in the knockout stages courtesy of a 1-0 victory over Denmark. We're set to make some Argentina vs. Australia World Cup picks.

Before we dive into the World Cup betting action, make sure to take a look at out our soccer betting guide in order to get all the tips and tricks you need. Additionally, take a look at our useful World Cup betting guide which has plenty of information.

Argentina vs. Australia Odds

BovadaSpreadMoney LineTotal
Argentina-2.0 (+102)-575O 2.5 (-136)
Australia-2.0 (-122)+1600U 2.5 (+113)

Heading into the matchup, it's Lionel Messi and Argentina who are considered the favorites. Argentina (-575) is expected to handily take care of business against Australia (+1600). Even a draw (+600) is a major longshot. As for the spread, the books expect a two-goal win for Argentina, set at Australia +2.0 (-122). The total is currently set at 2.5 goals, leaning quite heavily toward Over 2.5 (-136). 

Argentina Best Bets

Argentina is heavily favored against Australia, and despite their loss against Saudi Arabia, one of the most shocking in soccer history, I don't foresee another slip-up for the team. They were dominant against Poland throughout the 90 minutes, scarcely surrendering any chances and making life difficult for Robert Lewandowski and Co. I'm expecting much of the same against Australia.

After their stunning defeat vs. Saudi Arabia, Argentina looks locked in and re-focused. Perhaps the loss was the wake-up call they needed, as they've since produced two straight shutout wins, and will look to secure a third against Australia. Including their pre-World Cup performances, Argentina has kept a clean sheet seven of its last eight games, with the Saudi Arabia loss being the only outlier.

Offensively, Argentina has scored at least one goal in every single game at the tournament. Now that the stakes are raised and elimination is on the table, I'm expecting an even more significant offensive outpour. With five goals in three games, Argentina fans are hungry to see more action in the attacking third and more successful finishes from the likes of Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Angel Di Maria, and the rest of the Argentine attackers.

I think they'll live up to expectations and deliver a strong showing against Australia in all facets of the game. They're going to be firing plenty of shots on target, as they were against Poland, only Australia's goalie Matt Ryan may struggle more than Wojciech Sczcesny did on Wednesday. If that's the case, Argentina should have no trouble running up the score against Australia. The first bet for this game is Argentina Team Total Goals Over 2.5 (+111).

Argentina Over 2.5 Goals vs. Australia

Australia Best Bets

Australia will be ecstatic to have pulled off the stunning upset against Denmark and find themselves in the knockout stages. Not many expected the Australian squad to pull it off, but they're through among the final 16 teams. Unfortunately, I don't foresee their World Cup journey extending much farther than this. The reality of the situation is that they are outmatched in every facet of the game by Argentina.

Not only will Australia be forced to take up a defensive shape, but they'll be lucky to control even 30 percent of the possession in the game. The Argentinian midfield will be running circles around Australia. While they didn't concede a goal, a defensive-minded Denmark team took 13 total shots against Australia. That number could realistically be more than doubled by Argentina on Saturday.

That's bad news for Matt Ryan and the rest of Australia's defense. And even worse news for their offense. In their win against Denmark, Australia had eight total shots. In their 4-1 defeat vs. France, the Australians only found space for four total shots, only one of which was deemed a scoring chance. I'm expecting the game against Argentina to be more like the one against France, and Australia will be lucky if they get even four good looks at goal.

Because of that, I'm not expecting a single goal for Australia. Mixed with a victory for Argentina, there's some solid value to be had in betting on a shutout victory for Argentina. The Australian team simply doesn't have the talent to compete with Argentina, and while they were able to score on a clinical counter-attack against Denmark, they'll find even fewer opportunities for that type of chance vs. Argentina. The pick here is Argentina to record a shutout win (-170).

Argentina To record a shutout win vs. Australia

For those keen on taking a gamble on Australia, there's still some options to look at. Defeating Argentina will be no easy task, but it was proven possible by Saudi Arabia. While I don't recommend it, sprinkling on Australia to qualify (+800) could be worth a shot.

Australia To Qualify vs. Argentina

Before diving into the World Cup betting action, make sure to check out our top sportsbook reviews in order to find the best site that matches all of your betting needs.

Meet the author

Karl Rasmussen

Karl writes about MLS for His MLS Picks articles will first preview the action and then pick the winners of each round, and also highlight great player props and futures bets.