Is Australia a T20 World Cup liability bet with Aaron Finch in the team?

Dean Etheridge
By , Updated on: Dec 19, 2023 07:00 PM
Is Australia a T20 World Cup liability bet with Aaron Finch in the team?

The 2022 T20 World Cup is just over a month away now. But with the captain of the defending champions, Australia, out of form, here we look at whether Australia is a good bet to retain the trophy on home soil.

Australia won their first-ever T20 World Cup in Dubai last November. The side captained by Aaron Finch destroyed New Zealand in the final, winning by 8 eight wickets with seven balls remaining.

But with the next competition starting in just over one month and on home soil, the Aussies have a dilemma. Current T20 captain Aaron Finch has had an awful run form with the white ball, so bad that he has decided to retire from 50 Over international cricket. Former England captain, Eoin Morgan, did a similar thing earlier this year after struggling to get runs at the top level.

The difference between Finch and Morgan is that Finch has only quit ODI (50 Overs cricket), not T20. Eoin Morgan did both. But with a T20 World Cup on the horizon, it’s a bad time for Finch to be out of form.

  • Australia T20 World Cup Squad: Aaron Finch (c), Ashton Agar, Pat Cummins, Tim David, Josh Hazlewood, Josh Inglis, Mitchell Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Kane Richardson, Steven Smith, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, Matthew Wade, David Warner, Adam Zampa

Australia’s tour of India crucial for Finch

Before the world cup starts, Australia heads to India for a three-match T20 series. They then head home and play the West Indies twice and England three times.

You may think that’s eight games for Finch to find his form. But if Finch performs poorly in India, he may find his position untenable, with the following five matches used for finding a new formula at the top of the innings.

With the 2022 T20 World Cup so close, the Australians won’t want to have to take drastic decisions like that. It may already be too late to drop Finch. And it might be the case that he remains in the squad as a backup player.

Finch may well fall on his sword

Aaron Finch doesn’t seem the sort of guy to be a passenger in any team. So I don’t see him sitting on the sidelines as a backup player.

It’s a remarkable testament to the characters of Aaron Finch and Eoin Morgan that they would both step down from ODI cricket just a year before the 2023 ODI Cricket World Cup. Especially in the case of Morgan, who would have been competing as the captain of the defending team.

This says that if Aaron Finch has a torrid time in India, he will take the decision out of the hands of the Australian selectors. If he is prepared to walk away from the 50 Over team this close to a world cup, I have little doubt he would do it in the T20 format.

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Don’t mix up the two white-ball formats

Finch has only stepped down from 50 Over cricket. But make no mistake, at 35 years of age, this is the beginning of the end. He will probably go from T20 cricket after this competition if he even makes it there.

But even though there is a difference between the two formats, there is the problem that media and fans mold both into one. Finch was in bad form in 50 Over cricket. And although he hasn’t been pulling up any trees in T20, it hasn’t been as bad.

That’s not a compliment to his T20 performances. They haven’t been great, and being better than his 50 Over performances doesn’t mean they are adequate. It’s certainly no yardstick to judge on.

Finch seems to be getting judged on white ball performances combined (both T20 and 50 Overs). This is a bit unfair. But before Finch or Australia make rash decisions, his T20 form alone should be examined, and outside noise needs to be blocked out.

Who are the favorites to win the 2022 T20 World Cup?

Despite the form of their skipper, Australia is still the favorite to win the 2022 T20 World Cup. They do share that tag with India. Both sides are +300 in the latest online cricket betting odds. If it weren’t for the fact it is on home soil for Australia, the Indians would be outright favorites with the best cricket betting sites.

2022 T20 World Cup BettingBetOnlineBovada
Australia+300+300
India+300+300
England+425+400
New Zealand+800+700
Pakistan+800+800
South Africa+800+800
West Indies+1500+1200
Sri Lanka+2200+3300
Afghanistan+5000+3300
Bangladesh+12500+5000
Scotland+25000+30000
Ireland+25000+30000
Namibia+50000+50000
UAE+75000+40000

Such is the drop off in form for England and injury to Jonny Bairstow, they have now drifted out to +425. Having not long ago been up there with Australia and India in the betting.

Pakistan, New Zealand, and South Africa are all +800 in what looks likely to be a very open competition.

Pakistan To Win 2022 T20 World Cup
+800
Bovada
South Africa To Win 2022 T20 World Cup
+800
BetOnline

It’s hard to pick a winner this far out without recent form. The truth is that any of the top six sides in the betting could win.

I’m not convinced by Australia at the moment, though. And if they compete with an out-of-form Aaron Finch opening the batting, I would be looking at alternative options to bet on.

Meet the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge has over ten years of writing experience in the world of sports betting. Starting out as a hobby on his own soccer betting website, Dean has now seen his picks published across various affiliate sites along with The Sun and TalkSPORT where he writes regul...

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