Fernando Alonso looks best value in betting without Verstappen futures market

Dean Etheridge
By , Updated on: May 9, 2023 08:00 PM
Fernando Alonso looks best value in betting without Verstappen futures market

Max Verstappen took the Miami Grand Prix checkered flag last Sunday, and with it, he may have already killed off any faint hopes of a contest between himself and teammate Sergio Perez for the 2023 World Championship title. Perez was emerging as a contender with two wins from the opening four races, but now Verstappen seems to have reestablished his superiority. This means we are now going to turn our attention to the ‘betting to win the 2023 World Championship without Max Verstappen’ F1 futures market.

  • The bookmakers seem to have already decided that Max Verstappen is going to coast to his third world championship in three years
  • Betting to win the world championship without Verstappen is now becoming the most popular alternative futures market for the 2023 F1 season
  • At the moment, Verstappen’s Red Bull teammate, Sergio Perez is favorite to win the world championship w/o Verstappen. The Red Bull driver is -700

Max Verstappen’s win in 2023 Miami Grand Prix was his third of the season, and it has seen him open up a 14 points lead over teammate Sergio Perez at the top of the drivers standings after Round 5. But that said, it hasn’t made a huge difference in the betting to win the 2023 World Championship.

A bet on Verstappen offers no value

Heading into the weekend in Miami, Verstappen was -800, with Sergio Perez at +800. Now, after Verstappen’s win, the double-world champion has only had his odds trimmed to -1000, with Perez staying where he was on +800. Behind the Red Bull duo there has been plenty of movement though, certainly with BetOnline.

Ahead of Miami, Fernando Alonso was third favorite at +2000. The third favorite is now Lewis Hamilton at +5000, with Fernando Alonso now down at +6000. Put short, the best Formula 1 online betting sites don’t see past a Red Bull one-two this season.

Betting to win the World Championship without Max Verstappen

Unfortunately, due to the dominance of the Red Bulls so far in 2023, the betting to win the World Championship without Verstappen market is equally as dismal. Despite this, the market continues to become more popular. But when you look at the current odds on offer from the top sportsbooks you may wonder why!

In the betting to win the World Championship without Verstappen, Sergio Perez is -700. Okay, so that’s not as short as Verstappen is to win the 2023 World Championship. But it’s not far off.

Behind Perez it does get interesting though. Next is Fernando Alonso at -1000, with Lewis Hamilton priced up at the same odds. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is at +2500, with Carlos Sainz and George Russell both at +20000.

Those are big prices. And if you anticipate that the direction of travel might change when the cars get back on the more traditional F1 circuits (mainly found during the majority of the European based races), then there are some good value bets to have there.

Perez already has a huge lead over rivals

Sergio Perez already has a lead of 30 points over Fernando Alonso who is third in the drivers standings. He also has a 49 points lead over fourth place Lewis Hamilton. It sounds a lot. And that’s probably because it is.

Even if Perez does lose ground to the likes of Alonso and Hamilton during the European set of races, with 18 points on offer for finishing second, and 15 points for finishing third, Perez would effectively have to drop out of the top 5 for most of those races for either driver to have a chance of catching him. Does this sound feasible? Probably not at the moment.

More betting odds on winning the 2023 World Championship without Verstappen can be found below. You can read more about the bookmakers listed on our odds table on our betting bonuses and promotions page.

Formula 1; 2023 Drivers Championship w/o VerstappenBovadaBetOnlineGTBets
Sergio Perez-700-700-700
Fernando Alonso+1000+1000+1000
Lewis Hamilton+1400+1400+1400
Charles Leclerc+2500+2500+2500
Carlos Sainz+20000+20000+20000
George Russell+20000+20000+20000
Lance Stroll+100000+100000+100000
Lando Norris+200000+200000+200000
Pierre Gasly+200000+200000+200000
Esteban Ocon+200000+200000+200000
Valtteri Bottas+400000+400000+400000

Our Pick

It seems pointless backing Sergio Perez at -700 to win the 2023 World Championship without Verstappen. The chances are he will finish second, as at the moment, second place seems his to lose.

But what if Perez really does struggle and loses ground on the traditional Formula 1 circuits found in Europe? His team principal Christian Horner has already challenged the Mexican to repeat his road circuit form on a traditional F1 circuit. So with even Horner casting doubts, why should it be taken as a given that Perez will finish second to Verstappen in the Drivers Championship.

With Max Verstappen likely to win the majority of the races, that ties up the 25 points haul for a win. A second place finish is 18 points, so with 3rd place receiving 12 points, and 4th place getting 10 points, the chances could be there for Fernando Alonso to close the gap on Perez.

Back Alonso to take advantage

If Alonso can string together a run of second place finishes along with Perez finishing outside the podium places, it is possible for the Spaniard to gain 6 to 8 points a race. And across the European sector of the season, that could easily see Alonso close the gap.

The gap to Lewis Hamilton already looks too big. And the chances are that if Hamilton and his Mercedes team do manage a revival of sorts, they will take points off Alonso and help Perez.

But the way the betting currently stands, along with the points gap in the table, a bet on Fernando Alonso to win the 2023 World Championship without Verstappen looks the best value pick.

Fernando Alonso To win 2023 Drivers Championship w/o Verstappen

Meet the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge has over ten years of writing experience in the world of sports betting. Starting out as a hobby on his own soccer betting website, Dean has now seen his picks published across various affiliate sites along with The Sun and TalkSPORT where he writes regul...

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