Sergio Perez looks the value bet to win the Japanese F1 Grand Prix

Dean Etheridge
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Sergio Perez looks the value bet to win the Japanese F1 Grand Prix

This weekend the Formula 1 roadshow is in Suzuka for the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix. Max Verstappen (-300) is favored to win again, but after his team's worst performance of the season in Singapore is the Red Bull driver a good value bet to win his 13th race of the season? Here we look at the latest race odds and tell you the best bets to place in our latest Formula 1 betting picks.

  • What; 2023 Japanese Grand Prix - Round 17
  • Where; Suzuka International Racing Course, Suzuka, Japan
  • When; Sunday, September 24th, 2023
  • Time; 1 am ET
  • Laps; 53
  • Race Distance; 307.471 km

Finally, the winning streak of Red Bull has come to an end. There will now be no clean sweep in 2023, and no offense meant to fans of Red Bull, but thank god for that.

Carlos Sainz was the man to end the run. And boy, did he have to work for his victory with Lando Norris, George Russell, and Lewis Hamilton on his tail going into the final lap. This was real Formula 1 action, and long may it continue.

Sadly, a look at the latest odds to win the Japanese Grand Prix suggests last weekend was a one-off. In case you missed it, the two Red Bulls got knocked out in Q2 and started the Singapore Grand Prix at 11th (Verstappen) and 13th (Perez) on the grid.

This left them no real chance of winning the race, and any chance Verstappen had of sweeping through the field ended when the Safety Car was deployed and gave all his rivals what amounted to a free pitstop.

Eventually, Carlos Sainz won the race, with Lando Norris finishing second and Lewis Hamilton third.
So, was this a freak result? Or are the two Red Bulls going to be challenged for the remainder of the season?

Betting to win the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix

The Formula 1 online betting sites seem to believe it was a freak result, and Max Verstappen will be back to his winning ways this weekend.

In recent weeks, Verstappen has been -400 to win Grand Prix races. This weekend, the double-world champion is -300, so maybe the Red Bull performance in Singapore did affect his odds, but not by much!

Behind Max Verstappen in the betting is his Red Bull teammate, Sergio Perez, at +1200. Carlos Sainz is +1600 to repeat his win from last week, which also happens to be the odds for Lando Norris to win and go one better than his second place in Singapore.

Lewis Hamiton is next at +2000, with Charles Leclerc (+2200) and George Russell (+2500) close behind.

Full Japanese Grand Prix odds can be found on our betting table. More information about the bookmakers listed can be found on our betting bonuses and promotions page.

Max Verstappen-300-300-300
Sergio Perez+1200+1200+1200
Carlos Sainz+1600+1600+1600
Lando Norris+1600+1600+1600
Lewis Hamilton+2000+2000+2000
Charles Leclerc+2200+2200+2200
George Russell+2500+2500+2500
Oscar Piastri+3300+3300+3300
Fernando Alonso+5000+5000+5000
Lance Stroll+25000+25000+25000
Esteban Ocon+25000+25000+25000
Pierre Gasly+25000+25000+25000
Alex Albon+50000+50000+50000
Valtteri Bottas+50000+50000+50000
Guanyu Zhou+100000+100000+100000
Kevin Magnussen+100000+100000+100000
Yuki Tsunoda+100000+100000+100000
Nico Hulkenberg+100000+100000+100000
Logan Sargeant+100000+100000+100000
Liam Lawson+100000+100000+100000

Betting to win the F1 Drivers Championship without Max Verstappen

Lewis Hamilton finished third in Singapore on Sunday, with the 16 points he received seeing him overtake Fernando Alonso in the drivers' championship and move into the top three positions for the first time this year.

Hamilton now sits in third position on 180 points, with Perez in second place on 223. This doesn’t seem to have had much effect on the betting in this market, as Perez is still a massive favorite at -1000, with Hamilton at +600.

The rest of the field has effectively been written off from a betting perspective. Fernando Alonso is now +5000, with Sainz and Leclerc both at +25000.

Our Japanese Grand Prix Betting Picks

Now, onto our betting picks to win the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix. First, do we trust Red Bull to put things right this weekend? Well, everybody else seems to, so who are we to argue?

The Red Bulls know how to win at Suzuka. In 2022, guess what? Yes, Max Verstappen won the Grand Prix. Sergio Perez was second, and Charles Leclerc was third. That said, we are not backing Max Verstappen at -300 after last week’s performance from the driver and the team. So instead, we’re going to work on the theory that Sergio Perez is due a win.

It may be a slight contradiction to say no to Verstappen and yes to Perez. But this is purely based on the odds and the chances of an improvement in the team's performance as a whole.

In the three races before Singapore, the Mexican driver was second in Italy, fourth in the Netherlands, and second in Belgium. Sergio Perez is in good form. With the slight element of doubt about Red Bull, it makes more sense to back Perez at +1200 than to back Verstappen at -300.

Sergio Perez To win the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix

As we are not going near Max Verstappen, then why not name a second pick? Like buses, maybe Ferrari wins will come at the same time. Charles Leclerc finished third here 12 months ago, so can race on this circuit. We are hoping that Ferrari is on an upward curve, and we are going for any Ferrari to win at +900 for our second F1 betting pick on the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix.

Any Ferrari To win the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix

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Meet the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge has over ten years of writing experience in the world of sports betting. Starting out as a hobby on his own soccer betting website, Dean has now seen his picks published across various affiliate sites along with The Sun, where he writes regular Premier Le...

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