At long last, Kentucky sports betting is officially live.
Retail wagering across all sports was made available to residents on Thursday, September 7, at 10 a.m. And there was reportedly quite the turnout. Brandon Spencer wrote about it for Wave 3 in Louisville, Kentucky:
“Usually at Churchill Downs, you see horse bettors fill the halls but now that sports betting is legalized, sports fans of all kinds are joining the scene. In fact, starting at 11:30 a.m., mutuel clerks said long lines were building to make bets ahead of the 1:00 p.m. kickoffs. One of Churchill Downs’ Mutuel Managers said they saw more than 3,500 sports bettors for opening weekend.”
It isn’t immediately clear whether the sports betting windows and kiosks at Churchill Downs can expect this type of traffic every week. The state’s gambling rollout was timed so residents could bet on the opening slate of the 2023 NFL season. That time was expertly planned and was always going to guarantee an immensely busy launch for sports betting in Kentucky. Churchill Downs could, in theory, see the number of clientele from Thursday through Sunday dip as the novelty of retail wagering wears.
Then again, maybe not. At the very least, Kentucky officials don’t see sports betting interest waning anytime soon. But is that forecast appropriate given the current sports wagering climate?
Kentucky Sports Betting is Launch Under Unique Circumstances
Projecting forward for Kentucky sports gambling is uniquely tricky. First-time sports betting markets seldom cool off in the first year-plus. Business is driven by long-awaited interest and aggressive bonuses and promotions from the best online sportsbooks in the United States. This remains true even now, with more than 30 states offering some form of legal gambling.
Still, Kentucky will be an interesting case study in contemporary sports betting debuts. For starters, they have already offered horse racing wagering for quite some time. So, theoretically, bettors within the state haven’t been completely starved for gambling opportunities. That, in turn, could lead to a quicker leveling of interest.
Furthermore, many places in the past have reaped the benefits of wagering from residents in neighboring states without sports betting options. Kentucky won’t necessarily have that revenue stream at their disposal. The Bluegrass State has legalized sports betting a little later in the game. Many of the surrounding states have already launched their own services.
For example, there is legal sports betting in Ohio. Online sports betting in Tennessee has also been live for a while. (Note: The Volunteer State has yet to legalize in-person sports gambling.) Indiana has legalized both in-person and online sports betting. The same goes for West Virginia. And also Illinois. Kentucky might get some stray business from residents of Missouri, which has yet to legalize sports betting, but that’s about it. And most Missourians are more likely to explore Kansas sports betting services before traveling to The Bluegrass State.
To be sure, this isn’t meant to paint a picture of doom and gloom. Legal sports betting remains a wildly profitable industry. Kentucky is going to generate tons of revenue. Whether they meet their lofty first-year goals is a different story.
What are the Primary Factors Driving Steep Sports Gambling Revenue Projections in Kentucky?
Amid a more saturated sports betting industry, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has predicted that the legal gambling rollout will “generate more than $23 million a year,” according to Wave 3. That number would put the state right in line with Colorado sports betting revenue. They took home $23.9 million in revenue for 2022, based upon their tax rate on gaming profits.
Matching that number may prove ambitious for Kentucky. Colorado ranks 21st out of 50 states in total population, with more than 5.8 million registered residents. Kentucky ranks 26th in that same category, with roughly 4.6 million residents. Having more than 1 million fewer potential customers will absolutely matter.
And yet, Kentucky did an expert job timing their launch just right. First-year returns will be maximized by a full season’s worth of NFL betting. Their services also debuted extremely early into the 2023 college football season, which will be another boon for their bottom line.
On top of that, Kentucky is wasting little time in the rollout of online sports betting. While other states have staggered retail and mobile launches by months, online sports betting in Kentucky will go live by the end of September. Given that at least 75 to 80 percent of all legal sports bets placed in the United States run through a mobile bookie, this spells only good news for first-year revenue. Equally important, Kentucky has traveled great lengths to maximize interest in brick-and-mortar gambling. Churchill Downs houses a bunch of different options on its own, and BetMGM is expected to open a massive retail sports betting location soon; it might even have cut the velvet rope by the time you read this.
All in all, Kentucky’s sports betting rollout fits the industry standard in 2023. They don’t have as many professional sports franchises within state lines as Colorado. And they most definitely won’t profit from out-of-state residents the way other regions have, But Kentucky sports betting has launched at the right time, with a cabal of interest-driving options and draws, all while ensuring residents can choose between remote and on-location wagering. Those are all good harbingers for the sports gambling outlook in Kentucky—both immediately and over the longer term.
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