OKC Thunder to destroy Denver Nuggets in Game 5 to take series lead

What: NBA Picks
Who: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
When: Tuesday, May 13, 9:30 p.m.

The Oklahoma City Thunder evened their best-of-seven series at 2-2 with a 92-87 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. Playing on short rest, Nikola Jokic was held to 7-of-22 shooting with just three assists while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a team-high 25 points.

Who will win Game 5 on Tuesday night? Let's look at the latest betting lines. Odds are subject to change.

	Spread	Money Line	Total Points
Denver Nuggets	+10.0 (-110)	+370	Ov 221.0 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder	-10.0 (-110)	-510	Un 221.0 (110)

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Thunder vs Nuggets Betting Trends

Oklahoma City is a 10-point favorite at Paycom Center, where they are 38-7 in the regular season and playoffs combined. The Thunder won both home dates with Memphis in first round before splitting their first two games with Denver. They are 30-13-2 against the spread in their home building for a NBA-best 69.8 cover percentage.

Denver has a 26-20 away record, including two wins this postseason. However, while they escaped Game 1 with a 2-point victory over OKC, they lost Game 2 by a whopping 43 points. The Nuggets are 11-9-1 ATS as a road dog this year.

The over/under for Tuesday's game is set at 221 points. Both teams combined for way over that mark in Games 1 and 2, but point-scoring has dipped heavily in the past two games. The OVER hits in 61.4% (27-17-1) of Thunder home contests - the 3rd-highest mark in the league - and is 26-20 in Denver road games.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander secured a special Mother’s Day win in his “Charm Black” Converse SHAI 001 —an homage to his mom, Charmaine 🔥🖤 pic.twitter.com/KcibpXAZHq

— Nice Kicks (@nicekicks) May 11, 2025

Is Jokic running out of gas?

After helping his Nuggets secure a 113-104 win on Friday night, Nikola Jokic struggled in a Mother's Day matinee on Sunday afternoon, making just seven of his 22 field-goal attempts.

The three-time NBA MVP has shot just 33.3% in the past three games after an impressive 42-point performance in the series opener. He also has more turnovers (23) than assists (22) in the second-round series versus OKC.

Following a tough seven-game series with the Clippers, Jokic looks to be wearing down on a Denver team without a lot of depth.

Shai shines in the clutch

Both teams combined to miss more than 100 shots in Game 4, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made some clutch buckets in the 4th quarter of OKC's 92-87 win. Shai had a team-high 25 points with six rebounds and six assists.

Lu Dort's defense on Jamal Murray was also key to the Thunder's victory. Murray scored just 17 points on 15 shots and turned the ball over four times.

Nikola Jokic over his last 3 games:

33.3% FG
18.2% 3PT
15 assists / 16 turnovers pic.twitter.com/0eR5kY84cX

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) May 11, 2025

OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets NBA Picks

Oklahoma City has never led this Western Conference Semifinals series and was bounced out in Round 2 last year, but they have all the momentum heading into Game 5. The Thunder have the best home-record in the NBA and both Jokic and Murray are struggling offensively.

We'll take the Thunder to cover (-10) at home in Game 5 with the OVER (221).

OKC Thunder To cover vs Nuggets