Mendoza and Indiana in tough against Miami in CFP National Championship Game

Steve Starr
By , Updated on: Jan 15, 2026 12:00 AM
Indiana vs Miami National Championship Picks
  • What: #1 Indiana Hoosiers vs #10 Miami Hurricanes
  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL
  • When: Monday, January 19th at 7:30pm EST

Undefeated at 15-0 and seeking its first-ever national championship, the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers will take on No. 10 Miami in their home stadium on Monday. Will Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza continue his domination of college football or will Mario Cristobal's elite defensive line lead the Hurricanes to their first national title since 2001?

Let's look at the latest betting lines for the CFP National Championship Game. Odds are subject to change.

BovadaSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Miami Florida +8.5 (-105)+260Ov 48.5 (-110)
Indiana -8.5 (-115)-320Un 48.5 (-110)

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Hoosiers vs Hurricanes

Indiana is a -8.5-point favorite over No. 10 Miami after outscoring No. 9 Alabama and No. 5 Oregon by a combined 69 points in the college football playoffs. Following up a Heisman-winning season that saw him toss 41 touchdown passes, Fernando Mendoza threw eight more TDs in his two playoffs matchups with just five incomplete passes.

The National Championship Game has a 48.5-point OVER/UNDER. The Hoosiers have put up 94 total points with 770 yards of offense over the past two contests. However, the Hurricanes' nasty defense ranks fifth in points allowed and fourth in sacks.

Home cooking?

The national championship game is taking place in Miami's home stadium, where they went 7-1 this year and 18-3 over the last three seasons. Led by All-American Rueben Bain Jr., the Hurricanes led the nation in sacks (54) while allowing just 14 PPG in 2025. Mario Cristobal's defense held opponents to just 44 combined points in their three-game CFP run while forcing five turnovers.

Carson Beck is also proving the doubters wrong, passing for 509 yards and four TDs with one turnover in three playoff games. As always, he'll be trying to get the ball to dynamic playmaker Malachi Toney, who made 5 receptions for 81 yards and a score in Miami's 31-27 semifinal victory over Ole Miss.

Can Indiana be stopped?

Indiana outscored opponents by 473 points this year - that's tied for the largest point differential entering a national championship game in the playoff era.

In addition to having the No. 3 offense (41.6 PPG) in the country, the Hoosiers have the No. 2 defense (10.29 ppg), averaging three sacks a game. Curt Cignetti's crew made a pick six on the first play against Dante Moore in their 56-22 blowout victory of Oregon.

Indiana Hoosiers vs Miami Hurricanes Picks

Looking at common opponents, Indiana defeated Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game. Just a few weeks later, Miami downed the Buckeyes 24-14 in the CFP quarterfinal.

Playing in front of a home crowd, we love Miami to cover (+8.5) in the national championship game with the UNDER 48.5 points. At +260, a Hurricanes upset victory isn't entirely out of the question either.

Miami Hurricanes to cover vs Indiana
Bodog
+8.5

Meet the author

Steve Starr

Accomplished Sports Betting Specialist with over two decades of experience in sports analytics, strategic betting formulation, and risk management, with a particular focus on professional sports such as the NFL, NBA, and NHL. Proven success in applying statistical mo...

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