Gaelic Football Picks; Back Dublin to cover the spread in Leinster Final

Dean Etheridge
By , Updated on: May 11, 2023 12:00 AM
2023 Dublin vs Louth Gaelic Football Betting Picks

Dublin and Louth meet in the final of the 2023 Leinster Senior Football Championship this Sunday. Dublin are the favorites. They'll be looking to win their 62nd title this weekend. Standing in their way is Louth, who are hoping to win their ninth title. Who will win? Let's take a look with our Gaelic Football betting picks.

  • What; Leinster Senior (Gaelic) Football Championship
  • Who; Dublin vs Louth
  • Where; Croke Park, Dublin, Ireland
  • When; Sunday, May 14th, 2023
  • Time; 8.45 am ET

The trophy the two counties are playing for is called the Delaney Cup. Dublin are the most successful county in the Leinster province, having won the trophy 61 times.

The Dubs have won this trophy for 12 years running now. They have dominated the Gaelic scene both provincially and nationally over the past decade. During the 12 year winning streak, they have also gone on to also win the All-Ireland Championship eight times, including a 6-year winning streak between 2015 and 2020.

Over the last two years their dominance has shown slight signs of waning. They may have won the Delaney Cup in 2021 and 2022, but they have failed to win the All-Ireland trophy in both these seasons. Will the two-year All-Ireland drought spur them on to greater things? Louth fans will certainly be hoping not.

Dublin vs Louth Betting

With 12 wins in a row under their belt, it’s no surprise to see Dublin are heavy odds on to win the final. On the moneyline, Dublin are a ridiculously short -4000 to win in 60 minutes. The odds of a Louth upset are +1200.

The handicap spread is set at 10.5, with Dublin at -105, and Louth slightly favored at -120. And in the total points spread, the mark is 35.5. Over 35.5 is -115, with Under 35.5 also at -115.

These two sides met recently in a league match in March. On that occasion Dublin scored 0-16 (16), and Louth were 1-6 (9). So on that occasion, Dublin only won by seven points, and there was a total points spread of 25, which would have fallen well short of the 35.5 line we’ve seen set for this match.

Below, we’ve put together an odds table with odds taken from the best sites for Gaelic football betting. You can read more about these betting sites on our sportsbook reviews page.

2023 Leinster Championship Winner BettingBovadaBetOnlineGTBets

The Road to the Final

Qualifying for the Leinster Football Final is a bit more competitive than qualifying for the Munster Senior Final that we named Gaelic football picks for last week. The Munster section is far smaller than Leinster, although even given that, both Dublin and Louth only entered the competition at the quarter-finals stage.

There was a preliminary round with six counties taking part. The three winners joined the other five pre-qualified counties at the quarter-finals stage, although poor Laois might have wished they hadn’t bothered.

It was Laios who had the misfortune of playing Dublin in the last eight. And boy did the Dubs put them to the sword. The match scoreline was Dublin 4-30 (42), to Laois 2-9 (15), which was a right royal thrashing.

Things were much closer in their semi-final against Kildare, with Dublin only winning by two points. The final scoreline was Dublin 0-14 (14) - Kildare 0-12 (12). At the half-way point Kildare were 0-8 to 0-6 up, so Dublin had to dig deep to scrap their way to victory in the second half.

As for Louth, they had two tough matches to get to their first Leinster final since 2010 (the last time Dublin didn’t win this cup). In the quarter-finals they defeated a plucky Meath team 1-11 (14) to 0-10 (10). And then in the semi-final, they defeated Offay 0-27 (27) to 2-15 (21), in what was a strange match.

Getting to their first final since 2010 is a big deal for Louth. They are battle hardened after two tough qualifying matches. But will that be enough to beat Dublin?

Our Pick

First up, if you’re new to Gaelic football, the first score is a goal worth three points, and the second score is a point, worth one point. So a scoreline of 1-10 is 13 points in total. The breakdown is one goal (three points) and 10 (one) points. A goal is a big deal, but the bread and butter of any team is how many points they can kick.

Finding successful sports betting strategies on matches that have a heavy odds on favorite on the moneyline can be difficult. And with Dublin at -4000, they are at heavy odds.

So, even though we think Dublin will win, we’re not backing them at those odds. So we’re looking at a different strategy and moving onto the spread.

Can Dublin cover the spread? Well, they weren’t convincing against Kildare in their semi-final, and they also struggled a bit in the league match against Louth a couple of months ago.

But Dublin is a team that knows how to win finals. In last year’s final, they defeated Kildare by 14 points; 5-17 (32) to 1-15 (18), and in 2021 they again beat Kildare by 14 points.

In fact, Dublin has won the last nine finals by more than 11 points, which would have resulted in them covering the current spread. Based on that evidence, the Dubs turn up and perform on the big occasions. So for our pick, we’re backing Dublin to cover the spread against Louth.

Dublin (-10.5) To cover the spread vs Louth

Meet the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean is primarily a fan of English football who regularly attends games, and combining his hobby with his job, he is now a full-time sports betting writer.  Rather than going down the educational route into sports journalism, Dean learned his trade by writing for hi...

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