Spain vs. England 2023 FIFA World Cup Final Predictions

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Aug 18, 2023 12:00 AM
Who will win the 2023 FIFA World Cup Women's Final?

The 2023 FIFA World Cup Women’s Final matchup is officially set. Spain will take on England this Sunday, August 21, at 6 a.m. EST in Sydney Australia.

This is a head-to-head many predicted at the start of the tournament. Now comes the hard part: actually betting on the Women’s World Cup Final winner. Fortunately, we have plenty to say on this matter. But first, here’s a look at the latest online soccer betting odds for who will win the 2023 FIFA World Cup Final:

FavoriteBovadaBovadaUnderdog
Spain-116-102England

Like usual, please remember to double-check these FIFA World Cup Final betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Spain vs. England betting odds are accurate entering Thursday, August 17. That gives the best online sportsbooks in the United States plenty of time to adjust their Women’s World Cup Final betting odds depending on how the early markets shake out.

Speaking of which, the first returns show Spain (-116) opening as the slight favorite over England (-102). Much like the odds suggest, this matchup could be too close to call. And yet, we’re here, ready and willing to make that call.

How Did Spain and England End Up in the 2023 FIFA World Cup?

Spain’s road to the Women’s FIFA World Cup Final started out rocky. Despite a fast and furious offensive style, they seemingly lacked the ability to shift gears and churn out consistent performances. Skepticism reached an all-time high after they lost 4-0 to Japan in the final game of Group Stage play. 

However, La Roja got their act together in time to go on an epic run. They beat Switzerland, the Netherlands and Sweden to reach the Final. Their effort against Sweden, in particular, continues to stand out. The Blågult were fresh off dispatching the highly regarded Team USA. Spain proceeded to shut down their opponent’s offense and reach the championship round.

Not unlike Spain, England appeared to be on shaky ground to start the tournament. The Lionesses opened Group Play with unspectacular 1-0 wins over Haiti and Denmark. They then proceeded to absolutely dismantle China, 6-1, only to almost-but-not-quite fall to Nigeria. Many, in fact, still think Nigeria deserved to win that match in regulation. Regardless, England survived by winning on penalties. 

Then, in the quarterfinals, they needed to come from behind to edge out Colombia. Expectations weren’t too high heading into their semifinals showdown versus the host Australia, but England persevered. Led by Lauren Hemp, they pulled out a 3-1 victory, setting the stage for Sunday’s championship bout with Spain.

The Case for Spain to Beat England

Spain’s case to win the 2023 FIFA World Cup Women’s Final is rather simple: Nearly every major statistic favors their chances. As Phil Leake, a sports data journalist, noted: “La Roja have scored 17 goals to the Lionesses’ 13, having attempted considerably more shots (143 to 81), passes (4,137 to 3,605), crosses (214 to 129) and ball progressions (181 to 99) than their final opponents.”

The discrepancy in shots on goal could matter a whole lot. Spain likes to get up and down the pitch in a hurry and prides themselves on making quick decisions. But the speed at which they play isn’t even what’s most impressive. La Roja’s capacity to blend swiftness with precision is an unmatched combination when looking at the rest of the world.

England’s defense will especially struggle to contain midfielder Teresa Abelleira. She leads the entire tournament in progressive passes and crosses. The Lionesses will even have their hands full stopping Spain’s defenders on offense. Ona Battle is known for her one-on-one stopping power, but she is also tied for the lead during the 2023 FIFA World Cup in passing into the penalty area. The real kicker? The co-leader is fellow Spain teammate and midfielder Mariona Caldentey.

Spain To win the 2023 FIFA World Cup Women’s Final
Bovada
-116

The Case for England to Beat Spain

For all of Spain’s firepower, England is faring almost just as well on the offensive side of the pitch. The Lionesses have mastered the art of efficiency under pressure in many of their later games—in a big way.

No other team in the tournament has posted a larger cumulative passing progressive distance, and forward/midfielder is a co-leader in assists. England has defender and forward Millie Bright to thank for leading this charge, too. The angles and variable speeds she’s able to put on her passes is a sight to behold.

England’s defense has started to come on, as well. Defender Lucy Bronze leads all 2023 FIFA World Cup players in interceptions with 14. The Lionesses like to take gambles, but forcing turnovers can lead to devastating breakaways no club, including Spain, has an answer for.

England To win the 2023 FIFA World Cup Women’s Final
Bovada
-102

Official 2023 FIFA World Cup Prediction

And our pick to win the 2023 FIFA World Cup Women’s Final is…Spain.

To be completely blunt, we’re a little surprised they’re not favored by a larger margin. England’s offense has been great, but it’s nowhere near as thermonuclear as La Roja’s attack.

More than that, we don’t trust the Lionesses' defense. They take too many chances in the open field, and the advanced analytics suggest they’re getting a little lucky. Their expected 5.3 goals allowed per 90 minute ranks in the bottom half of all participating World Cup teams. England’s goalkeepers are also posting a save percentage south of 88 percent for the tournament. 

In the end, though, this is more about Spain than anything else. Their expected goal differential per 90 minutes of 2.47 leads the entire World Cup bracket by a cosmically, comically wide margin. The brand of offense they play isn’t one you can slow down, let alone stop. 

La Rojas comes at you from every angle, in every imaginable form, completing passing sequences you couldn’t fathom, while firing shots that can’t be taken by 90 percent of other teams. When all’s said and done on Sunday, they will be holding the 2023 FIFA World Cup Women’s Final trophy.

Spain To win the 2023 FIFA World Cup Women’s Final
Bovada
-116

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Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan first began writing about sports back in 2011. At the time, his expertise lied in the NBA and NFL. More than one decade, that remains the case. But he's also expanded his catalog to include extensive knowledge and analysis on the NHL, MLB, tennis, NASCAR, college ba...

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