Aston Villa vs Man City: Lions on the Prowl

Will Chace
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Aston Villa vs Man City: Lions on the Prowl

The two highest-scoring teams in the league go head-to-head on Wednesday in Birmingham. Aston Villa meets Manchester City in what could be a shootout, and one Manchester City is sure to be motivated in. The Cityzens have failed to secure all 3 points in a match since they blew out Bournemouth at home back in early November. Continue reading to access an expert Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction and explore the latest Man City odds.

  • Aston Villa FC vs Manchester City FC, English Premier League
  • December 6, 2023
  • 3:15 PM EST
  • Villa Park, Aston, Birmingham, England
  • Peacock

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Odds: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Manchester City, the reigning champions of the FA Cup, Premier League, and UEFA Champions League, are unsurprisingly odds-on favorites to win on Wednesday. At (-135), they have an implied probability to win at 57.4%. The underdog Aston Villa will have their hands full in Birmingham, as the Lions are currently priced at (+342) at highly-rated sportsbook BetOnline. A draw would result in a similarly unexpected outcome as a Villa triumph, with a line of (+330).

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To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our soccer betting tips and learn about English Premier League betting odds.

Hot Start to Season for Aston Villa

Aston Villa's streak of four consecutive wins across various competitions ended last weekend with a hard-fought 2-2 draw against Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium. Despite trailing twice in the match, Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins managed to level the scoreline, securing a point for Unai Emery's squad. 

It has been their offense that has not only kept them in big games, but shot them into insurmountable early leads. Their rocket-fueled start to the campaign has put them in 4th in the table, good for a Champions League qualification. However, a loss to Man City on Wednesday might push them down to sixth place if both Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United secure victories in their upcoming games.

After two consecutive away fixtures, Villa should be looking forward to returning to Aston, where they've been dominant. Villa have won 17 of their last 18 home matches across all competitions. 

Their recent track record against Man City and Wednesday fixtures might raise concerns, though. They've struggled against Man City in the Premier League for years, failing to win any of their last 13 encounters. Additionally, their Wednesday game history in the top flight hasn't been in their favor, with just one win in their last 12 such matches.

Aston Villa To Defeat Manchester City

Manchester City Recent Matches and Statistics

The last game for Man City ended controversially after a late equalizer by Dejan Kulusevski for Spurs. A contentious call by the head referee halted a potential Jack Grealish breakthrough in stoppage time. 

Man City has hit a rough patch in the Premier League, facing a three-game winless streak for the first time since 2017. Despite initially leading in matches against Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham Hotspur, they settled for three consecutive draws,

This string of results reflects defensive vulnerabilities for Pep Guardiola's squad. They've conceded 10 goals in their last four games across all competitions, managing only five clean sheets in 21 total matches.

Their upcoming clash with Aston Villa poses a significant challenge for their struggling defense. Despite this, City has historically dominated Villa, winning 10 of their last 11 encounters. However, their previous visit to Villa Park ended in a 1-1 draw due to a late Leon Bailey goal for the hosts. Overall, in the Premier League, they've scored in 17 of their last 18 meetings with Villa, tallying 48 goals.

Manchester City To Defeat Aston Villa

Injuries and Roster Updates

Both teams will be on tired legs, having played their previous matches on Sunday. Additionally, Aston Villa will have to continue to manage without three injured players. Bertrand Traore, Emiliano Buendia, and Tyrone Mings will be out. Fortunately, Boubacar Kamara is set to make a return after serving a one-match suspension last weekend.

Regarding Man City's lineup, both Rodri and Grealish face suspension due to yellow card accumulation. Matheus Nunes has been absent for the past three matches due to a muscle issue and will undergo evaluation before kickoff. And as Man City supporters are surely aware, Kevin De Bruyne continues to be sidelined due to a long-standing hamstring injury.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Aston Villa have a huge opportunity to prove doubters wrong. Few expected them to be this high up in the table at any point this season. And with a home game against current #3 and reigning champions Manchester City in hand, a victory for Aston Villa could put them as high as 2nd. 

With these absences in mind and both clubs playing their third game in 8 days or less, it could be anyone’s guess as to what these lineups will look like, and how they will change throughout the match. I have to side with Aston Villa to surprise the viewing public with a thoroughly engaging battle that goes down to the wire. While I am not confident they can pull off a victory through 90 minutes, I think they can keep it close.

Aston Villa is not the type of team to falter easily to Manchester City’s high press. They will look to move quickly and establish their offensive presence. I think Villa matches up well to a traditionally tough task in Man City. They should enjoy playing under the lights in Birmingham against a top-tier opponent. This is Villa’s chance to shine.

Give me the Asian handicap at (-105), giving us a backdoor in case Villa’s fatigue catches up to them late and their night ends in heartbreak.

Aston Villa +0.75 vs Manchester City

Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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Meet the author

Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports an...

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