France vs. Poland Betting Tips and Picks

Karl Rasmussen
By , Updated on: Nov 30, 2022 07:00 PM
France vs. Poland Betting Tips and Picks
  • What: France vs. Poland, 2022 FIFA World Cup - Knockout Stages (Round of 16)
  • When: Sunday, December 4, 2022, at 10:00 a.m. EST
  • Where: Al Thumama Stadium in Qatar
  • How to watch: Peacock

France and Poland are set to square off in the knockout stages at the 2022 FIFA World Cup. France was the winner of Group D, securing six points despite a stunning upset against Tunisia. As for Poland, they placed second in Group C, scraping by ahead of Mexico to reach the round of 16. Both teams will be eager to put their best foot forward in the knockout stages. We're going to make some France vs. Poland picks for the upcoming matchup.

Before we get going on the betting action, make sure to take a gander at our soccer betting guide in order to get all the tips and tricks you need. Additionally, take a look at our handy  World Cup betting guide which has loads of useful information.

BovadaSpreadMoney LineTotal
France-1.5 (-115)-345O 2.5 (-125)
Poland+1.5 (-105)+900U 2.5 (+105)

Heading into the matchup, France is massively favored over Poland. France (-345) is not expected to be troubled by Poland (+900) with a draw (+460) considered very unlikely, too. France is expected to win by 1-2 goals over Poland, with the spread set at France -1.5 (-115). As for the total, the books are anticipating 2-3 goals between the two sides, with the total leaning towards Over 2.5 goals at (-125). 

France Best Bets

Despite a loss to Tunisia, France didn't struggle too much during the World Cup group stages. France rested its starters for the final game against Tunisia, so it's not all too surprising that they didn't pick up a win, having already punched their ticket to the knockout stages. Now that they won Group D, they'll face Poland, a team which they match up very well with in most facets of the game. Early on, it looks as if France could cruise to the quarterfinals. 

France scored six goals in three games during the group stages, including a 4-1 beatdown of Australia. They'll want to replicate that showing against Poland, and while I don't expect quite as dominant of a win, I think France should cruise to victory once again. France conceded a goal in every game of the World Cup, so their defense and goaltender Hugo Lloris will be eager to pick up a clean sheet now that they're in the elimination stages of the tournament.

I'm expecting France to do just that against Poland. The combination of France's midfield and defense (let alone their attack) should be too formidable for Poland to handle. Robert Lewandowski and the rest of the Polish attackers figure to find themselves equally flustered as they did against Argentina, when they managed four total shots in the game. Because of the midfield disparity, I think France will pick up a clean sheet in a shutout victory. The pick here is France to record a shutout win (-115).

France To record a shutout win vs. Poland

Poland Best Bets

Poland is through to the knockout stages by the skin of their teeth after a late score from Saudi Arabia over Mexico saw them advance on goal differential. Now, Poland will have to buck up and give everything it has if it wants to pick up a win over France. Poland was completely stifled by Argentina on Wednesday, so if they hope to get anything against France defense, they'll need to be more decisive and quick on their counterattacks.

While Robert Lewandowski may be the most renowned Poland star on the planet, he wasn't much of a factor against Argentina. The Argentine defense was all over him throughout the game, swarming him any time the ball was played to his feet. Unfortunately for Lewandowski, that will be the case again on Sunday, as he's the clear focal point for any defense to hone in on.

With Lewandowski likely unable to have a big impact, Poland's X-factor will be goalie Wojciech Szczesny, who was unbelievable in the group stages, saving two penalties. France will be looking to capitalize on their scoring chances, but getting goals past Szczesny is no easy feat, as Lionel Messi and Co. learned on Wednesday. He saved nine shots against Argentina in what was one of the best showings from any goalie at the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

Because it's Szczesny in the net, France shouldn't be able to run up the score as much as they'd like. Because of that, I'm looking at the under in terms of total goals. While France shouldn't have much trouble scoring at least one goal, I don't expect they'll be as successful in front of the net as they were against Australia. I'm still operating under the belief that Poland is held goalless against France, so with that in mind, I'll take the Under 2.5 Total Goals at (+105). 

France vs. Poland Under 2.5 Total Goals

Before getting started on the World Cup betting action, make sure to take a good look at our top sportsbook reviews in order to find the best site that matches all of your betting needs.

Meet the author

Karl Rasmussen

Karl Rasmussen leverages his journalism degree and passion for sports in his expert coverage of Major League Soccer (MLS) and fantasy leagues. Hailing from Denmark but a longtime resident of the Pacific Northwest, Karl brings an international perspective to his analysis...

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