Little to Separate Sides in Venezuela vs Ecuador

Venezuela hope to continue their strong start to the FIFA World Cup Qualifiers on Thursday as they host Ecuador. La Vinotinto have earned results in 3 of their first four matches, including a draw in Brazil. The pressure is on for them to capitalize on this early momentum and book their first-ever appearance on the global stage. Read on to access an expert Venezuela vs Ecuador prediction and explore the latest news on the 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualification (CONMEBOL).

Venezuela vs Ecuador, 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualification (CONMEBOL)
November 16, 2023
5 PM EST
Estadio Monumental de Maturín, Maturín, Venezuela
Fanatiz

Venezuela vs Ecuador Betting Odds

Venezuela enter this match as underdogs despite playing in Maturín, with a price tag of (+232). Across all of the best online sportsbooks, Ecuador is lined at (+135) to win, good for an implied probability of 42.6%. If neither team can separate themselves, both sides will have to settle for a draw (+215).

WC Qualifiers - CONMEBOL
Venezuela	+232	+220	+220	+230	+220
Ecuador	+135	+135	+135	+135	+135
Draw	+210	+195	+195	+215	+195

To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our soccer betting tips and World Cup betting guide.

2026 FIFA World Cup Qualification (CONMEBOL)

The South American section of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifying stage will act as the qualifiers for the tournament for national team members of CONMEBOL. It was the first confederation to begin its qualification process for 2026. Now entering its 5th and 6th matchdays, the round-robin format is concluding its first third of the schedule. After this week, teams will not compete in World Cup Qualifying again until next fall.

Both Venezuela and Ecuador are projected, at the moment, to be top-6 bubble teams and have a shot of qualifying for the World Cup. There is more historical evidence to suggest the Ecuadorians will make it to the showpiece tournament, as Venezuela has never made it. Their maiden trip to the world stage could be seen as a legitimate prospect with a win on Thursday.

Venezuela Team Breakdown and Recent Results

Fernando Batista ought to be mighty proud of his squad coming into this match. The Venezuelans thoroughly beat down Chile at home 3-0 last time out. Venezuela has been unbeaten in the South American qualifiers since an opening match day loss to Colombia, 1-0.

A player who could solve this issue for Venezuela is Salomon Rondon, a striker for River Plate. The 34-year-old forward is nearing his twilight, but has already scored the most goals for his nation of Venezuela than any other with 40. Look for Rondon’s signature #23 kit up the pitch on Thursday evening. Rondon has played the role of “super sub” mostly for the table-topping Argentinian club, but has still managed to score 4 goals this season.

Batista will be making a couple of changes for this match. Inter Miami forward Josef Martinez has been left out, but Yeferson Soteldo, the scorer of the opening goal against La Roja, has earned a spot in the selection.

Venezuela To Defeat Ecuador

+232

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Top Ecuador Players and Review of Past Fixtures

Ecuador has enjoyed a similar run to Venezuela, losing 1-0 to Argentina to kick things off before stringing together a 3-match series of good results. A big win over Uruguay and a draw to Colombia sandwiched an away victory over Bolivia, who are now bottom of the group.

Ecuador’s last visit to Maturín ended in a 1-0 defeat, taking place in November 2021. They will have ambitions to reverse that result, especially as a side tipped by many to earn another trip to the World Cup in 2026. La Tri are backed by Moises Caicedo, one of the best defensive midfielders in the world. Currently playing for Chelsea, Caicedo is only 22 and will be a mainstay for Ecuador for many years to come.

Enner Valencia is likely to be Ecuador’s main threat in front of goal on Thursday. The Internacional forward is widely considered to be one of the greatest Ecuadorian soccer players of all time. In fact, his 40 goals for La Tri are unmatched in its history. Assuming no new injury concerns arise, Ecuador manager Felix Sanchez is expected to keep the same lineup that participated in the goalless draw against Colombia in their recent qualifying match.

Ecuador To Defeat Venezuela

+135

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Venezuela vs Ecuador Prediction and Free Betting Pick

These two squads love to grind away and slow things down on the pitch. A betting total of 2 at near pick-em odds further emphasizes the expectations of a grueling affair. Ecuador are coming off a scoreless draw to Colombia following a last-gasp winner over Bolivia. Additionally, 3 of Venezuela’s 4 qualifying matches so far have ended with 2 goals or less.

If we are to expect 2 goals or less to be scored in this match, that leaves us with only 4 possible score lines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1, or 2-0). Half of these potential outcomes are draws. And despite Venezuela’s host status, they will probably be content with just 1 point given their level of skill. And so will Ecuador, as the away team in an environment that has been historically difficult to win in.

Therefore, I think the value lies in betting the draw. This will be a cagey match with little chances available, and chiefly the possibility of 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline after the full 90 is fairly likely. Take the draw at anything north of (+200).

Draw Venezuela vs Ecuador

+215

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Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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