Man City vs Arsenal Prediction: Defense to Dominate

Will Chace
By , Updated on: Mar 20, 2024 08:00 PM
Man City vs Arsenal Prediction: Defense to Dominate

Manchester City and Arsenal will square off in an English Premier League match with massive title implications. The Gunners are tied atop the table with Liverpool at 64 total points, with the Cityzens only one point behind. Arsenal’s goal differential of 46 is the best in the league by far, with Manchester City trailing by 11 goals. Read on to access an expert Man City vs Arsenal prediction and explore stats and tips for Man City odds.

  • Manchester City FC vs Arsenal FC, English Premier League
  • March 31, 2024
  • 11:30 AM EST
  • Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
  • Peacock

Man City vs Arsenal Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Manchester City bettors will have to pay some juice on the moneyline if they believe they will best Arsenal on the last day of March. The Cityzens are odds-on favorites with a line of (-115). The Gunners are (+304) underdogs, an implied probability of 24.8%. A draw pays out at (+285).

Premier LeagueBetOnlineBetUSBovadaBetNowXbet
Manchester City-115-115-115-115-120

Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about English Premier League betting odds.

Man City to be Booted from Premier League?

Manchester City awaits resolution on 115 charges leveled against them by the Premier League since the beginning of last year. Although trial dates have been set by authorities, official confirmation is still pending.

Robert Glancy KC, Mark Hovell, and Steve Holt outlined in their 52-page document the spectrum of unlimited sanctions, which span from a mere warning to expulsion from the Premier League. They further elaborated that in instances where a breach of the Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) is deemed "minor," other Commissions will be responsible for determining the necessity, appropriateness, or proportionality of any points deduction. However, if the breach is categorized as "major," then it might warrant severe penalties such as expulsion.

In other news for both soccer and Manchester City fans alike, former Manchester City player Robinho has been instructed by judges to undergo a nine-year prison term for rape in Brazil. Back in 2017, Robinho was condemned in Italy to nine years behind bars for his involvement in a collective sexual assault back in 2013 during his tenure at AC Milan. Due to Brazil's non-extradition policy for nationals, Italy pursued his incarceration in his home country. A Brazilian court has recently decreed that he must fulfill the prison sentence in Brazil, with judges from Brazil's Superior Court of Justice voting 9-2 to uphold Robinho's conviction.

Manchester City To Win

Man City vs Arsenal: Title Run Toughest Amongst the Contenders?

Arsenal currently leads the Premier League standings. However, statistical analysis indicates that they face the most challenging fixtures among the three contenders for the title.

Mikel Arteta's team will need to overcome formidable opponents such as Liverpool and reigning champions Manchester City if they aspire to clinch the league trophy for the first time in two decades. Similar to the previous season, where they narrowly missed out on the title by five points, there will be minimal margin for error in the remaining 10 games of the current season.

As per Soccer Stats, Arsenal's next 10 opponents, who stand in the way of their championship aspirations, possess the highest points per game ratio compared to those of Liverpool and Manchester City. Opta's Power Rankings further reinforce the contention that Arsenal faces the most challenging fixture list. Using the ranking of opponents for each team, the statistics experts assigned a difficulty rating to the remaining fixtures of each team. With 100 representing the most difficult and 0 the easiest, Opta's calculations indicate that Arsenal has the fifth most arduous run-in among the 20 teams, with an opponent average rating of 88.5 percent.

The title isn’t the only thing these clubs are competing for at the moment. According to Sport, four Premier League clubs are eyeing Real Madrid winger Rodrygo. Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Manchester United are all reportedly interested in the 23-year-old. But all clubs involved are aware that securing his transfer could pose challenges.

Los Blancos are not actively seeking discussions regarding a transfer for the Brazilian international. However, there is optimism that they could be persuaded to negotiate if they receive an offer in the ballpark of $100 million.

Arsenal To Win

Man City vs Arsenal Prediction and Free Betting Pick

I am not convinced Manchester City is going to win the league, contrary to public opinion. Their offense has struggled, even against poor teams at home. Their main competitors, Arsenal and Liverpool, have both looked very strong as of late, and that’s with the Reds overcoming many injuries.

In the reverse fixture, Arsenal topped Manchester City thanks to a lone strike from Martinelli with only a few minutes left in regulation time. The early October match was a story of stout defenses, with less than one expected goal produced in total. The Gunners had 12 shots, but Manchester City was the only club with “big chances,” creating two.

I think this fixture will play out similarly, with both clubs hesitant to be aggressive considering the stakes involved in a costly mistake. Expect Manchester City and Arsenal to both build out from the back, burning clock and looking to capitalize off of set piece opportunities. 5 of Manchester City’s last 6 home matches have gone under 2.5 goals. I think the under is a great look here, and will recommend it for a full unit. 

Under 2.75 Total Goals

Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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Meet the author

Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports an...

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