Man City vs Real Madrid: Recency Bias Affecting Total

Will Chace
By , Updated on: Apr 15, 2024 08:00 PM
Man City vs Real Madrid: Recency Bias Affecting Total

Manchester City will host Real Madrid in a match with massive European consequences, as the winner will advance to the semifinals of the Champions League. The last match was an instant classic, a 3-3 draw with 3 lead changes and 6 different goalscorers. Now in a rematch at Etihad Stadium, the pressure will be on Real Madrid to keep the contest close and make it to the next round. Continue reading to access an expert Man City vs Real Madrid prediction and explore stats and tips for Real Madrid odds.

  • Manchester City FC vs Real Madrid CF
  • UEFA Champions League, Quarterfinals (Leg 2 of 2)
  • April 17, 2024
  • 3 PM EST
  • Paramount+
  • Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England

Man City vs Real Madrid Odds

Manchester City are odds-on favorites to take care of business through 90 minutes and advance to the semifinals. The Cityzens are lined at (-152) to win the match. Real Madrid bettors will enjoy a massive payout of almost 4:1 at (+395) if they can pull off the upset. A draw is priced at a similarly wide (+335).

Champions LeagueBetOnlineBetUSBovadaXbetMyBookie
Manchester City-152-155-155-157-157
Real Madrid+395+380+380+380+380

Want to better understand the 1X2 moneyline market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Champions League betting odds.

Is Haaland Really Hurting Man City?

A major discussion point across the English Premier League over the past few weeks has been the play of one Norwegian star named Erling Haaland. The wunderkind scored 52 goals last year in his first campaign for Manchester City. The blitzing pace could not be sustained this time around however, with Haaland mustering 31 successful strikes through 38 games in all competitions so far.

Pundits and supporters alike have rained down criticism for his depreciating output, but Haaland remains the top goalscorer in the Premier League by a decent margin as City stand firmly in the domestic and European title races. The criticism may hail from a disturbing trend of poor performances from Haaland in big games, including an effective absence in a critical match against Arsenal. Many expect more involvement from the top club’s top player, but soccer doesn’t always play out that way.

Pep Guardiola likely sees a more passive approach being more effective for the Cityzens. Haaland is anticipated to take center stage in the forward position, drawing attention from defenders in the central third of the pitch, and find the net. This allows clever wing play opportunities from speedsters and playmakers like Phil Foden, Jeremy Doku and Kevin de Bruyne. These accompanying stars now have room to make cuts and receive crosses behind the back line, who is more occupied with marking Haaland. 

Having remained undefeated for 27 consecutive matches across various tournaments since their unexpected loss to Aston Villa in December, City now stand on the brink of more than just a semi-final berth. Advancing this week would also mark a milestone as they match a club-record 42-game unbeaten streak on their home ground, a record established as far back as 1921.

Manchester City To Win

Real Madrid Looking Strong in 2024

Real Madrid are oh-so-close to another La Liga title after earning a 1-0 win over Mallorca. The victory was partially overshadowed by controversy stemming from racially charged gestures directed towards the lone goalscorer Aurelien Tchouameni. These situations have unfortunately become a common theme in Spanish soccer, which has rightfully prompted a strong response from La Liga. A fan was banned from attending Mallorca games for 3 years after being accused of similar actions. 

The win lifted Real Madrid to an 8-point advantage over rivals FC Barcelona, who now face an uphill battle for the title. An El Clasico match at the Santiago Bernabeu next weekend may determine the winner of the La Liga title. 

In Saturday's match, Carlos Ancelotti took the opportunity not just to give key players like Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, and Toni Kroos a break, but also to grant starts to Nacho and Antonio Rüdiger. Nacho and Rüdiger displayed a strong performance against Mallorca. The wo contributed significantly to a match that Madrid should have won with a more impressive margin. Unfortunately, Tchouameni won't be available for the City clash.

Real Madrid To Win

Man City vs Real Madrid Prediction and Free Betting Pick

This match is expected to be a barnburner between clubs that have historically traded goals at a rapid pace.  In the last five encounters between City and Real, a total of twenty-three goals have been scored. With both teams possessing fully-fit attacking lineups, another captivating clash seems to be on the horizon. 

But I have other ideas in mind. The last game may have resulted in 3 goals apiece, but many were wondershots that had no business hitting the back of the net. Neither club accrued more than 1 expected goal, with a total of 1.45 expected goals. And before a rash of scoring against Luton and Aston Villa, Manchester City was playing very low-scoring games at home. Real Madrid’s defense also travels well.

It is also important to consider both sides are very tactical and will have seen each other’s gameplay now. Second legs are always more cagey as mistakes are naturally more costly. Despite 6 goals last game, I just can’t get to a total of 3 here. The last one was set at 2.5, so recency bias is coming in very strong. I will take under 3 for a half unit.

Under 3 Total Goals

Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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Meet the author

Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports an...

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