Real Madrid vs Dortmund Picks: Total Too Low

The day has finally arrived: Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund face off at the iconic Wembley Stadium to conclude the 2023-24 Champions League season. It has been a challenging journey for both teams, though Dortmund’s presence in the final is particularly surprising. A victory for Real Madrid would extend their record to 15 titles, marking their 6th continental triumph in the last 11 attempts. Continue reading for Champions League odds, prediction, and tips and explore stats and a breakdown for Dortmund betting in 2024.

UEFA Champions League Final stage
June 1, 2024 (Saturday)
3 PM EST
Wembley Stadium, London, England
Real Madrid CF vs Borussia Dortmund

Champions League Final: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

On Saturday night, Spaniards around the world are likely to be celebrating as Real Madrid is favored to lift the prestigious Champions League trophy. The club is listed as (-155) favorites, a notably high figure for a final at a neutral venue. Dortmund fans stand to enjoy a 4:1 payout if their team secures victory in 90 minutes. However, if neither club emerges victorious within the regular time, those betting on a draw will cash in at (+320).

Champions League
Real Madrid	-157	-155	-155	-160	-160
Dortmund	+440	+400	+400	+400	+400
Draw	+318	+320	+320	+310	+310

Want to better understand the 1X2 moneyline market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Champions League betting odds.

Real Madrid Results in 2024 and European History

Real Madrid stands as the most successful team in European competition history, with an impressive 14 title victories, including the most recent in the 2021-2022 season. The club is well-versed in the pressures of a final, led by Carlo Ancelotti, who is coaching his 6th Champions League final. Ancelotti’s track record gives Real Madrid an edge, having won 4 out of his 5 final appearances. This year, Real Madrid also has the chance to achieve a double, having already secured the La Liga title.

However, questions linger regarding Real Madrid’s goalkeeping situation. Legendary Belgian keeper Thibault Courtois has had limited action due to an ACL injury, with Andriy Lunin stepping in for many games this season. Ancelotti has indicated that he will decide on the starting goalkeeper at the last minute. Lunin has been dealing with a fever but is expected to be ready for Saturday, while Courtois made a strong return earlier this month, recording a clean sheet in a 3-0 victory for the club.

Real Madrid To Win

-155

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Can Borussia Dortmund Pull Off the Upset?

With all due respect to Dortmund, their appearance in the final is nothing short of miraculous. The club emerged first in this year's Group of Death, a formidable group featuring Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan, and Newcastle United. This achievement set up a clash with the formidable Dutch side PSV Eindhoven, whom they defeated 3-1 on aggregate.

They then faced Atletico Madrid, a team many expected to advance due to Diego Simeone's tactical brilliance and their recent Copa del Rey triumph over Real Madrid. However, Dortmund defied expectations with a thrilling 4-2 victory in the second leg, overcoming a first-leg loss to win 5-4 on aggregate. Their next challenge was Paris Saint-Germain, who they had faced in the group stage, drawing 1-1. Remarkably, Dortmund won both legs of the semifinal tie, advancing 2-0 and holding PSG scoreless in both matches.

The most recent encounters between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund date back to 2017, when they met in the Champions League group stage, with Real Madrid winning both matches. The year prior, the two sides also faced off in the group stage, resulting in two draws.

Dortmund To Win

+440

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Champions League Final Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Dortmund’s remarkable defensive performances in the Champions League, while impressive, seem more fortunate than deserved. PSG hit the post seven times in their tie against the Germans, a feat that’s difficult to replicate intentionally. PSG frequently penetrated the box and created scoring opportunities at will. Dortmund’s ability to control possession for longer periods than expected seemed to throw off many teams, including Atletico, who still managed to score four times in their tie.

Real Madrid, on the other hand, have consistently been involved in high-scoring, highlight-reel games. They have risen to the occasion in key moments, finding offensive contributions from various players. Real Madrid have scored multiple goals in three of their last four Champions League ties, conceding three to Manchester City and two to Bayern Munich in two of those matches. Real Madrid are expected to dominate possession for most of the game, leaving Dortmund to rely on counter-attacks.

The total goals in this match are justifiable only if Dortmund continues their extraordinary defensive performances from their tie against PSG. Domestically, they are far from a defensive powerhouse, having conceded 43 goals, more than Stuttgart and high-flying RB Leipzig. Real Madrid should have plenty of scoring opportunities, and if they fall behind, they will be forced to push men forward. The over has significant value here, so enjoy rooting for a high-scoring final on Saturday.

Over 2.75 Total Goals

-115

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Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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