Don’t Count Out Sevilla at Home vs Arsenal

Will Chace
By , Updated on: Dec 19, 2023 07:00 PM
Don’t Count Out Sevilla at Home vs Arsenal
  • Sevilla FC vs Arsenal FC, UEFA Champions League
  • October 24, 2023
  • 3 PM EST
  • Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium, Seville, Spain
  • Paramount+

Sevilla welcome Arsenal to Andalusia for a European affair in late October. Representing the 3rd matchday of this year’s UEFA Champions League, the Spanish side hope to continue their CL unbeaten streak against the visiting Londoners. Arsenal were stunned by Lens 2-1 last week, while Sevilla managed a 2-2 draw at PSV. Continue reading to access betting odds, club breakdowns, Arsenal vs Sevilla head to head history, and a free expert pick.

Sevilla vs Arsenal Champions League Match Betting Odds

This Sevilla vs Arsenal Champions League match is one of the closer ties in Matchday 3. Arsenal will travel to the south of Spain as (-115) favorites, according to highly-rated online sportsbook Bovada. Sevilla earning all 3 points on home soil is considered unlikely to many, as bookmakers are offering (+300), good for an implied probability of 25%. A draw, which has been the outcome of both of Sevilla’s two UCL ties so far, is set at (+275).

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To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our tips for how to bet on soccer online.

Champions League Group B: Arsenal Remain Favorites

Composed of Arsenal, Sevilla, Lens, and PSV, Group B is set to be a competitive battle for the two qualifying spots. PSV have an outside chance to make a run, but their backs are against the wall without a win thus far. Arsenal are clearly the best team on paper, but a loss to Lens has made the qualifying picture more interesting.

To stay in the mix, it is almost a requirement for Sevilla to earn points at home vs Arsenal on the 24th. A loss would set them back in the race vs Lens, particularly considering their failure to beat PSV last matchday.

Meanwhile, Arsenal has yet to prove themselves worthy as the higher-seed in this Champions League grouping. A win against Sevilla on the road could do just that, but they will need more from their new goalkeeper David Raya. 

Arsenal Experiencing Growing Pains with New GK Raya

Former Arsenal player Mikel Arteta has been a constant source of controversy among supporters for several years. Despite enduring disappointing seasons, the current manager has managed to retain his position and is currently leading an impressive streak of performances. 

Just two years ago, frustrated Arsenal supporters surrounded the manager's car after a 2-0 loss to Chelsea. However, Arteta weathered that storm and continues to be in charge. Although a disappointingly lackluster performance against Sevilla might not immediately halt the frequently trending #ArtetaOut posts, it is safe to assume that the manager's job security has been bolstered.

Arteta is most recently under fire for his relegation of goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale to the bench, who was extremely successful during their title run last campaign. The manager has chosen David Raya as a preferred replacement. Raya fits the modern archetype: An athletic, ball-playing keeper whose setups and clearances play a role in the attack.

However, supporters have not taken too kindly to this radical change in the last line of defense, and are making their voices known through harsh jeers directed at the former Brentford goalie. It remains to be seen if such a switch in defensive tactics will prove beneficial to Arsenal, but Arteta’s decisions never fail to be judged by the watchful eyes of the Gunner fanbase.

Arsenal To Defeat Sevilla

Arsenal vs Sevilla Head to Head History and Results

These two clubs have only matched up on opposite sides of the pitch twice competitively. The 2007 campaign of the Champions League pitted these two European teams together for the first time in the group stage, where each club won their home matches.

However,  Arsenal and Sevilla have played 3 preseason games since then. Arsenal hosted the red-and-white outfit in 2017 and 2022 as part of their Emirates Stadium tournament. In last year’s friendly, Arsenal stomped on the Spaniards in a 6-0 demolition. The Gunners will attempt to use that result as ammunition for this matchup, while Sevilla will try to put their poor performance behind them and chalk it up to nothing more than a preseason scrimmage.

A draw has only occurred once in this fixture at the Amsterdam Tournament in 2008. If you believe the unfamiliarity of the clubs may lend itself to a stalemate, you can bet on a draw at (+275) on Bovada using the link below.

Draw Sevilla vs Arsenal

Sevilla vs Arsenal Champions League Match Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Arsenal is one of the more fortunate Premier League teams this season. Measuring “luck” through the expected goal differential (xGD) statistic, we can see that the Gunners have enjoyed an xGD of +0.37 compared to actual. On the other hand, luck has not gone the way of Sevilla, with an xGD to actual of -0.44. As bettors, we can deduce that Sevilla’s results may look worse on paper than how they actually performed. The opposite can be said for Arsenal. 

While the Gunners are in the midst of an impressive run, as a bettor, I can’t help but think regression to the mean is coming. Arsenal is probably not as good of a club as they have been in recent weeks, as advertised by their advanced expected goals statistics. Additionally, La Liga is a commonly undervalued flight in Europe. Sevilla is a top-10 club in Europe over the past 5 years according to the UEFA coefficient, which weighs performance in European competitions. 

I think Sevilla has the tools to surprise an English team that may have lost its momentum after this month’s international break. The club will not have to travel after their march vs Real Madrid, while Arsenal will spend a day of rest making the trip down south. Give me the double chance (win or draw) bet on Sevilla at +0.5.

Sevilla +0.5 vs Arsenal

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Meet the author

Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports an...

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