Offshore Texas Sports Betting Estimates Are Shocking

The legalization of Texas sports betting, by all appearances, remains quite a bit away. But the push to bring it to The Lone Star State endures. Though the subject has gained very little traction in 2025, Senator Carol Alvarado has effectively stated she’ll keep campaigning for sports betting in Texas for as long as she can.

Of course, despite the failure to legalize anything thus far, the issue has more than its fair share of supporters. The market in Texas sports betting is considered to be the second- or third-most lucrative in the United States. Only sports betting in New York and sports betting in California (which, like Texas, isn’t legal) stand to rival its tax-revenue returns.

This has naturally offered a blueprint for advancing the agenda and swaying policymakers who might be on the fence or outright against sports betting in Texas: Focus on the potential windfall, and on how much residents in The Lone Star State are already betting. The two are inextricably tied together. However, this past year, it seems that Texas sports betting advocates are taking to spotlighting the latter projection more than anything. They believe the amount of money already being bet on sports in The Lone Star State is large enough to shift even extreme stances opposing the legalization.

And if the latest Texas sports betting volume estimates are to be believed, well, they might be right.

The Texas Sports Betting Market Apparently isn’t Just a Multi-Billion Dollar Industry

Pretty much anyone who follows sports betting in the United States understands that billions of dollars are already being wagered in Texas. The Lone Star State ranks second in total population, according to StatsAmerica.org, and is also home to plenty of professional sports franchises, including some of the most recognizable organizations in the entire world.

Yet, even pluralizing “billion” isn’t going to move most Texas sports betting detractors. A market like this one is used to multi-billion dollar industries and figures. They are numb to it, even. But what happens if the number is $7 billion? Because it apparently just might be, according to the Texas Sports Betting Alliance. As Michael Lozano of Spectrum News 1 reported:

“Sports betting advocates are left looking toward the future after another lackluster result in the Texas Legislature's regular session this year. The Texas Sports Betting Alliance (TSBA) has been working diligently for years to see state lawmakers prioritize the topic of sports betting. Sports franchises like the Dallas Cowboys, San Antonio Spurs and Austin FC are members of the alliance, which has noted the untapped revenue potential that’s being left on the table. The TSBA says Texans wager $7 billion in unregulated offshore betting sites, meaning there’s an untapped potential of more than $360 million in tax revenue.”

This is a staggering projection. Especially because there is an emphasis on offshore betting sites. It remains unclear whether they are taking into account Texans who also travel across state lines to bet on sports in places like Louisiana. And even if it does take into account every possible form of gambling, it’s still an absurd amount of volume. As such, it raises an important question…

Are These $7 Billion Estimates Actually Accurate?

Considering the $7 billion estimate comes from a coalition intimately invested in the fate of Texas sports betting, it is perfectly fair to take it with a grain of salt. Could the TSBA simply be leaning on the best-possible scenario to bolster its case? Perhaps. At the same time, the volume isn’t as far-fetched as it might initially seem.

Look no further than the New York sports betting market as proof. The Empire State is currently the national leader in sports betting volume. And that makes sense. They have the largest population of any state with legal sports betting, and much like Texas, they are home to a variety of pro sports franchises, many of which attract fanbases on both a national and global scale.

To that end, just look at how much New Yorkers have bet on sports since wagering was first launched in 2023, via Sportsbook Review:

2023 Sports Betting Volume: $19.2 billion
2024 Sports Betting Volume: $22.7 billion
2025 Sports Betting Volume (projected): $27.1 billion

New Yorkers are essentially betting more than three times Texas’ current $7 billion projection. That is bonkers. Sure, The Empire State’s volume is no doubt higher because sports betting is legal—and thus more accessible. But that’s the entire point.

Why Texas Sports Betting Volume Estimates May Ultimately Be Too Conservative

Let’s run with New York’s first year of action as our baseline, since Texas would be a fledgling market if and when it launches sports wagering. The Empire State racked up a $19.2 billion handle in 2023 with a population of 19.74 million, according to data from the United States Census Bureau. That is a per-capita spend of around $972.64 for every resident.

Applying this same number to a hypothetical Texas sports betting market gets bananas fairly quickly. The Lone Star State’s population in 2025 is estimated to be just shy of 31.9 million. To keep estimates somewhat conservative, let us go ahead and round that down to 31.8 million.

For the sake of being even more accurate, we should also adjust for median household incomes. New York’s is expected to clock in at $42,397, per World Population Review. Texas’ median household income, meanwhile, settles at $41,661. That is roughly 98.3 percent of The Empire State’s projection. If we adjust each individual’s spending to reflect this, we get an estimated per capita of $956.10. Multiply that number by Texas’ total population (i.e. 19.74 million) and you get…around $18.8 billion. That would be the projected Texas sports betting handle if they ever legalize wagering. And again, that’s for Year 1. The market could grow at the same rate New York’s has over the first few trips around the sun.

Think that number is enough to drum up enough support for Texas sports betting in 2026? The reflexive answer is yes. But officials no doubt have already seen similar projections. If that type of volume isn’t moving them, what will? Perhaps we’ll find out…someday.

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