One of the best modern-day fighting rivalries we’ve seen is Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira. It’s spanned about a decade, multiple sports, and countries — and it just may have one more fight left in it. Speaking hypothetically (nothing is confirmed), who would win a trilogy fight between Adesanya and Pereira? We have predictions right here!
- Who: Israel Adesnya vs. Pereira III
- When: Not Official
Adesnya vs. Pereira III Preview
We can’t preview any future Adesnya vs. Pereira fight without accounting for the two’s bitter history against one another. We start with the most recent event — UFC 287 this past April. Adesnya regained the middleweight championship with a second-round knockout for the ages. Pereira, per usual, was on the attack and had Izzy against the cage. However, Adesanya shot back with a counter-attack that stopped Pereira. It was a display of Izzy’s insane speed and precision.
After the win, Adesanya was as emotional as we’ve ever seen him in the octagon. As he should’ve been because Pereira had proven to be his kryptonite in the three professional fights they’d done before — two in kickboxing and the other in the UFC. In November 2022, Pereira took the middleweight belt from Izzy with a KO victory of his own. Adesanya was on his way to winning (he was ahead on all scorecards) before Pereira caught him in the cage and finished him in the fifth round.
Pereira is the only person that’s ever knocked out Adesanya, having done so two separate times. The other time was in Glory of Heroes, a kickboxing promotion. Back in 2017, a left hook sent Adesanya to the ground for good (requiring an oxygen mask to get him back to his feet too). A year earlier, Pereira scored a five-round decision over Izzy.
So if Pereira and Adesnya fight once more, it would be the fifth time ever, but third in the UFC. Trilogy series are rare in the UFC and five fights between the same opponents are even rarer in all of combat sports. Given the history, running it back one more time almost has to happen since we need to settle who is definitively the better fighter.
For what it’s worth, Adesanya has said he doesn’t want a fifth fight. Moreover, Pereira has left the 185-pound division and is going to 205 now. So a fifth fight is far away, but money talks and so do legacies. Assuming it happens one more time, below is what we predict would happen.
Pereira vs. Adesanya III Predictions
Betting odds are actually available on Pereira-Adesanya. Many of the top UFC betting sites have this line out in case the fight is made. As it stands, the title holder is favored to win on the moneyline:
| Fighter |  |  | GTBets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | -190 | -190 | -190 |
| Alex Pereira | +140 | +140 | +140 |
A big variable for this potential fight is what weight class would it be at — middleweight or light heavyweight? Adesanya has fought once in the light heavyweight class, losing to Jan Blachowicz. He’s entertained winning a second divisional title so we could see Izzy giving 205 pounds a second go. But if so, we’d say that’s to his disadvantage. Adesanya is a naturally lanky fighter, which gives him the deadly speed we mentioned before. At 205, he’s adding weight that just slows him down (without gaining too much power to counter it).
Let’s assume this is at middleweight again. Who wins is a bit of a crapshoot. Both fighters are evenly matched in the stand-up game given the kickboxing backgrounds. And given the bad blood, you’d have to think either man would want to win by knockout, thus cementing themselves as the superior fighter (a decision leaves things up more in the air). In that case, it really comes down to who can land the first big hit.
Our money says Adesanya would win. Pereira’s style is more like rock 'em sock 'em robots — flurries of power punches without much accuracy. Izzy, on the other hand, strikes with a purpose. Because of that, he baited Pereira in the last fight to give him the opening he needed. The superior in-ring IQ and accuracy give us confidence that Adesanya would win a future matchup, one we desperately hope happens.
How To Bet On UFC Futures?
This is a UFC futures bet — meaning it’s for possible bouts in the distant future. There are several of these lucrative types of bets available right now at offshore betting sites. Other matchup futures available include Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler. To get a full list of the betting options available, hit one of the underneath bookmakers.
All five sites you see listed here are industry leaders, that according to our latest sportsbook reviews. Any UFC betting line you can think of would be carried by any one of these sites, whether it’s upcoming matches (UFC 290 is only weeks away) or far-away possibilities (Izzy vs. Pereria). See for yourself by visiting one of the bookies underneath.
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