UFC Picks: Can Mateusz Gamrot Pull Off Upset Over Arman Tsarukyan?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
UFC Picks: Can Mateusz Gamrot Pull Off Upset Over Arman Tsarukyan?

If the latest online betting odds for UFC are any indication, we're in for one humdinger of a main card during the Fight Night on Saturday, June 25. A typical UFC Fight Night in 2022 has four to five headliner matchups on the docket. Saturday's affair has six bouts on the main card, including the premier showdown in Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot.

Our latest batch of 2022 UFC picks will provide predictions for this headlining battle in addition to the other five fights taking place in primetime. But before we get to those, here's an overview of the latest UFC Fight Night betting odds, courtesy of the folks over at BetOnline:

Arman Tsarukyan-290+215Mateusz Gamrot
Shavkat Rakhmonov-430+300Neil Magny
Alan Baudot-120-104Josh Parisian
Thiago Moises-260+196Christos Giagos
Umar Nurmagomedov-900+520Nate Maness
Chris Curtis-158+124Rodolfo Vieira

Double-checking these UFC odds is imperative. Our UFC Fight Night predictions will use MMA betting lines that are accurate entering Tuesday, June 21. The betting odds for Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot as well as every other match are subject to move right up until the opening bell.

Thorough UFC enthusiasts should also make it a priority to check out our reviews of the top online sportsbooks and our list of the best betting apps for UFC. By taking stock of the information we offer, you'll be able to find the best UFC betting bonuses and promotions—and maybe even a permanent home for all of your sports betting.

Without further ado, let's get to our Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot picks. And after that, we'll move on to all of the other fights, offering predictions in the order of which matches will be the most interesting or high-stakes.

Tsarukyan will Bring the Heat vs. Gamrot

At first glance, Gamrot looks like he might have the edge.

Much like Tsarukyan, he is a powerful defender, able to ward off both takedown attempts and lethal strike combinations. In addition, though, Gamrot has proven to be a more accurate and quicker striker, a seemingly critical difference.

But that "edge" isn't enough to write off concerns about Gamrot's stamina. Each of his past three victories have come by knockout. Though he isn't TKO-or-bust, per se, he doesn't have as much experience going up against fighters like Tsarukyan, who do a great job maintaining everything from their power and precision to their technicals and form in later rounds.

OSB Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan (-290)

Arman Tsarukyan To beat Mateusz Gamrot

Shavkat Rakhmonov Could Deliver TKO on Neil Magny

Shavkat Rakhmonov is known primarily for his defense—and for good reason. His infallible footwork, low center of gravity and sturdy technical skills makes him extremely difficult to hit from a variety of angles. Wrapping him up is virtually a non-option, too.

And yet, Rakhmonov probably deserves just as much credit for the power and lethality with which he gets after opponents. All three of his past matches have ended before a decision, with one knockout and a pair of submissions. 

To be honest, we can't shake the feeling Neil Magny is being thrown to the wolves here.

OSB Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov (-430)

Shavkat Rakhmonov To beat Neil Magny

Alan Baudot is Undervalued Against Josh Parisian

Oddsmakers are presenting this matchup between Alan Baudot and Josh Parisian as a toss-up. We believe it's something less.

Yes, Baudot has lost each of his past three matches. But he's still landing more than five significant strikes per minute at a 55-plus percent clip. Parisian is both slightly slower and less accurate, not to mention working off a less-than-impressive loss himself.

This is the fight that gets Baudot back on the fast track.

OSB Prediction: Alan Baudot (-120)

Alan Baudot To beat Josh Parisian

Christos Giagos is a Great Underdog Pick Over Thiago Moises

Go ahead and scoop up Christos Giagos while he's still paying out nearly 2-to-1. We don't think bettors will allow that to stand for much longer.

Giagos' odds are likely dragged down by the loss he suffered to Arman Tsarukyan at a previous UFC Fight Night. Christo fell to the floor just over two minutes into the match.

But we can't let a one-off letdown taint our perception of a fighter who has historically shown great speed and thrust with his both hands. Given how Thiago Moises tends to operate at a more methodical rate, without too much power, he's just the type of opponent who Giagos can dismantle.

OSB Prediction: Christos Giagos (+196)

Christos Giagos To beat Thiago Moises

Nate Maness Stands No Chance in Matchup with Umar Nurmagomedov

Sending Nate Maness into the octagon against Umar Nurmagomedov feels almost mean. The latter is connecting on 3.61 significant strikes per minute while also racking up successful takedowns at a rate of 7.56.

To be fair, Maness is a pretty economical wrestler and deliberate with his right and left hands. Nurmagomedov can also be a little too haphazard with his offense. But this seems like a match that will come down to who's more comfortable being the aggressor. That's clearly Nurmagomedov.

OSB Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov (-900)

Umar Nurmagomedov To beat Nate Maness

Chris Curtis' Star Keeps Rising vs. Rodolfo Vieira

Chris Curtis has been on a tear, and we don't expect that to stop versus Rodolfo Vieira.

Entering this Saturday's card, Curtis is landing more than seven significant strike attempts per minute at a nearly 70 percent clip. That type of connectivity borders on unprecedented, and it's impressive enough for us to overlook the recklessness with which he sometimes leaves his middle and upper body open to flying kicks and monster hooks.

OSB Prediction: Chris Curtis (-158)

Chris Curtis To beat Rodolfo Vieira

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your UFC betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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