The highly anticipated card at UFC 310 is just around the corner. Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura will headline the loaded slate on Saturday, December 7 in what many are expecting to be a decisive matchup. But are those thoughts premature? We are here to find out.
- What: UFC 310
- When: Saturday, December 7, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Paradise, Las Vegas Valley, Nevada
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura
Alexandre Pantoja enters with a 28-5-0 overall record. His last fight came against Steve Erceg at UFC 301 this past May, which he won by unanimous decision. Pantoja’s reign as the UFC Flyweight Champion is now three matches old, all of which have required him to take fights to Round 5.
For Kai Asakura, meanwhile, the UFC 310 card will mark his first fight with the company. Typically, a first-timer would not receive such a high-profile bout. But the 31-year-old comes over from the Rizin Fighting Federation, where he was the Bantamweight Champion. His professional record (outside of UFC) is an impressive 21- 4, a track record that includes 16 victories by submission (three) or knockout (16).
UFC 310 Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura Betting Lines
As you might expect the latest online UFC 310 betting odds heavily favor Pantoja, given not only his status but extensive experience in The Company’s octagon:
While linemakers have made Pantoja a heavy favorite, please remember to double-check these UFC 310 betting lines right up until you actually submit your wager. Our Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura betting odds are accurate entering Friday, November 29. This gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to continue making adjustments ahead of the opening bell on December 7.
Granted, this is not a fight that will feature a change in favorites. Pantoja’s lead over Asakura is much too large for such a shift. But we could see an influx of long-shot action to capitalize on Asakura’s payout. And that, in turn, could serve to bridge some of the gap currently separating the two.
The Case for Alexandre Pantoja to Beat Kai Asakura
Pantoja is often able to overwhelm his opponents with a brew of powerful strikes and incredible wrestling maneuvers. Asakura hits harder than most fighting in this division, but Pantoja’s across-the-board skill set should serve him well.
Entering the headliner at UFC 310, Pantoja is landing 4.41 significant strikes per minute with an above-average accuracy rate of 49 percent. What’s more, he is also completing 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes. His wrestling maneuvers can be a little all over the place, but he is relentless with them. And obviously, there is no denying the results.
Two of Pantoja’s past five victories have come by submission. He got Alex Perez to submit with a neck crank at UFC 277. Then, in his fight directly before that, he brought Brandon Royval down with a rear naked chokehold.
Combine this versatility with knockout power on his strikes, and it’s clear Pantoja isn’t being heavily favored simply because he’s the more familiar face.
The Case for Kai Asakura to Beat Alexandre Pantoja
It’s safe to say that Asakura isn’t afraid of the bright lights–or the opponent—that awaits him at UFC 310. The 31-year-old recently said it will take “only one clean hit” to knock out Pantoja.
This is, without question, quite the declaration. Pantoja has not lost since facing Askar Askarov back in July 2020. And that fight was determined by a decision. In fact, Alexandre Pantoja has never been knocked out. Can we really expect Asakura, a newcomer, to be the first one who KOs him?
Look, it is not likely. But Asakura certainly has the power and precision to do so.
Though many fans can dismiss fighters from other federations, the Rizin Fighting Federation is no joke. Holding the Bantamweight Belt for so long in that circle is a big freaking deal.
Plus, there is a reason Asakura is getting an immediate shot at the Flyweight belt. The UFC has seemingly been courting him for a while. His proclamation that he can knock out Pantoja is bold—but there’s also a chance that his meld of fighting styles is well-equipped to actualize it.
UFC 310 Picks for Pantoja vs Asakura
The arrival of Kai Asakura (+220) at UFC 310 is legitimately intriguing. And if we are being honest, we are surprised online sportsbooks in the United States don't have him as a lighter underdog. His capacity to connect on strikes with knockout power and pinpoint accuracy is tantalizing.
Contrary to what he himself said, we would be surprised if he knocked out Alexandre Pantoja (-260). With that said, we would not be shocked if Asakura.
In the end, though, we cannot quite get there. Asakura has the skill to match or exceed Pantoja’s power. And the UFC newbie has the technique and depth as a grappler to fight a variety of styles. But we are ultimately too worried about his defense.
Asakura can often find himself wrong-footed or too open stanced after hitting or missing on his own strikes. Someone like Pantoja is skilled enough to capitalize on those moments.
Whether this will be a decision, knockout or submission is a tough call. We think it’s more likely Pantoja wins by decision. But again, that can change in one fell swoop if Asakura does not bring a better defensive package than he’s shown over the course of his career to date.
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