Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva will be on the main card at UFC 315 this upcoming May 10. No, the Flyweight Championship is not on the line in this bout. Grasso vs Silva best bets expect to feature some fireworks.
Who will emerge victorious as the UFC heads to Canada for the eighth time—and the first since UFC 186 all the way back in April 2015? Let’s find out on
- What: UFC 315
- When: Saturday, May 10, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EDT (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EDT (main card)
- Where: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Venue: Bell Centre
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (subscription required)
- Main Card: Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
Grasso is heading into UFC 315 with a lifetime record of 16-4-1 and has truly battled over the past couple of years. Her trilogy of fights against Valentina Shevchenko are still talked about. Shevchenko finally conquered Grasso last year at UFC 306. Grasso had few answers for the ground game Shevchenko brought. Worse, there were some definite holes in her defense that were exposed. Everyone wants to know can she bounce back?
During her training, the 126-pound flyweight worked on upping her jiu-jitsu skills along with her takedown and general defense. One of the main concerns was knowing how her opponent does not get taken down often via punches or moves. Significant strike defense is important here because typically Grasso absorbs more punishment to get her shots in. That could spell trouble even in a three-round fight on Saturday night.
Then there is Natalia Silva who is on quite a winning streak. Yes, the Brazilian UFC fighter has made quite an impact since joining the top MMA brand. Silva is 18-5-1 overall but 6-0 in UFC. Already, she has climbed up to 5th in the Flyweight rankings in a little less than three years. Grasso would be her biggest test to date.
Silva's signature wins involve her punishing her opponents. Just ask Jessica Andrade. Andrade lands a full significant strike per minute more than Grasso while allowing only 2.34 significant strikes per minute (Grasso comes in at 3.69). That could become a theme here.
UFC 315 Main Card: Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva Betting Lines
This UFC 315 main card clash marks the first big step for Natalia Silva. Normally, the updated online UFC betting odds will favor a former champion. This is true especially if they recently fought for the belt. However, you will notice a considerable swing, as you can see below:
Please remember to keep double-checking these UFC 315 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 315 online betting odds are accurate entering Thursday, May 8. This allows for the best online UFC betting sites and plenty of time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell on Saturday, May 10.
For this fight, specifically, do not expect to see sudden changes. With mere days from the matchup, the lines are close enough to encourage subtle movement. For example, Silva has said she wants to wear down Grasso. The UFC 315 betting lines have since moved even further in her favor.
The Favored Natalia Silva In A Springboard Fight
Natalia Silva is favored and knows she is in a springboard fight. Could Silva get a title shot after this? It is possible. Silva may not have the best ground game in the world but her 91% takedown defense rate is nearly impenetrable. Alexa Grosso really has a battle on her hands in this scenario. What else is there for Grosso vs Silva best bets?
Now, besides being one of the UFC’s best takedown defenders, Silva lands faster than Grosso, throws arguably harder than her, and has a 64% defense rate where Grosso is at only 58%. Silva has exceeded a 50% significant strike rate in consecutive bouts. Granted Silva was not fighting someone like Shevchenko. Arguably, Silva may be even more crafty and agile.
Honestly, Silva knows what is at stake. A mere one inch reach difference (65 to 66 for Grasso) phases her little. Again, the Brazilian knows she has to connect and connect often. If necessary get Grasso to the ground but watch out for those random power shots. That is what Grasso did to Shevchenko the first time around. This set up that stunning submission which turned the division upside down. Yes, the younger Silva has an advantage here seeing video and tendencies.
Silva has the upper hand and many know it.
Can Alexa Grasso Rebound And Win?
Alexa Grasso was champion once and even defended that title. Sure, that was a controversial decision. However, Grosso showed she more than belonged among the top flyweights in the women;s division. We mentioned her ability to toss in submissions along with some incredible power in her punches. Four of her first six professional wins were from punches. Though her rear-naked choke is solid, it is that face crank which draws the notice.
Furthermore, she is no slouch. Though that 40% takedown accuracy is not top-notch. She is capable of getting Silva on the ground a few times in this fight. Again, this match comes down to who wants it more. Is Grasso willing to get tagged more often to take her chances? It will be telling early. Remember, with only three rounds, time will not be on her side. She has to attack with some more urgency which again leaves her open.
If she nails Silva just right, that paves the way to a decision victory on Saturday.
UFC 315 Picks for Grasso vs. Silva
It is a bit of a risk to agree with odds from the best UFC betting apps. Grasso vs. Silva bets is okay to do so.
However, we take one more risk. Silva to win by four or more points is now plus money on Bovada. That may not last as it has been hovering between -125 and +105.
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