Betting on UFC 292? Read this first then. We’ve analyzed the fight card’s very top bouts and come away with three betting picks to make. If you keep on reading, you’ll get ‘em for free from us!
- What: UFC 292
- When: August 19, 2023
- Where: TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
- How to watch: ESPN+
Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley Betting Picks
The main event features two fighters that many fans don’t believe should be even in here. Sterling is still one of the most disrespected champions — even after three successful defenses. O’Malley, meanwhile, most don’t think he beat Petr Yan to set this up in the first place. But hey, it’s happening, and here are the Sterling-O’Malley moneyline odds:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aljo Sterling | -260 | -260 | -260 |
| Sean O'Malley | +210 | +210 | +210 |
Across the board at UFC’s most-used online betting sites, Sterling is the comfortable favorite to win. That comes despite a short turnaround from his last fight against Henry Cejudo, which was only in May. Sterling wanted time off to recover and heal injuries, but Dana White wasn’t having it and set this up. Could that fatigue play a factor?
It’s certainly possible given O’Malley possesses some of the best hands in the whole promotion. Yes, he has length. Yes, he has cracking power. But what really makes O’Malley a dangerous striker is his precision. He’s pinpointing his bombs, not just letting them fly. If he’s going to best Sterling, then it almost has to be a finish.
We don’t see a scenario where O’Malley can win via a decision. Sterling is the better all-around fighter. In particular, Sterling has an impressive takedown ability. Last time out, he took down Cejudo— a former Olympian in wrestling — on four occasions. Putting O’Malley on his back is certainly one way to neutralize his dangerous hands.
But here’s one more thing that can turn this right: who has the gas tank to last five rounds? Sterling has proven he does as that’s his M.O. — not stoppages. But O’Malley? We’re not convinced he can hang long. O’Mallet was quite gassed after two rounds vs. Yan last time. For these reasons, the pick to make is Sterling. The champion just has more path to victory compared to the challenger that NEEDS a finish.
Weili Zhang vs. Amanda Lemos Betting Pick
A second championship will be on the line at UFC 292 when women’s strawweight title-holder Zhang defends against Lemos. Here again, the moneyline odds aren’t particularly close with the champ being -310. We’re not in love with that, hence why we’re jumping on the Zhang-Lemos over/under instead. The odds for that are as follows:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 rounds | +165 | -260 | -260 |
| Under 3.5 rounds | +210 | +210 | +210 |
This fight has some parallels to the main event. With this one, Lemos’ best (and maybe only) chance at seizing the belt is to finish Zhang. She is fully capable of doing so too. Lemos is an excellent striker. She’s trained in Muy Thai and with her speed, a devasting strike is always milliseconds away. Zhang was famously caught with a massive leg kick by Rose Namajunas before so it’s within reason of happening.
Nonetheless, we’re still confident Zhang will win. She’s actually the more prolific striker, landing 5.76 significant strikes per minute compared to Lemos’ 4.51. Plus, she has a wrestling game to fall back in a way that the challenger really doesn’t. That wrestling might be handy in wearing down Lemos. Our prediction is this fight goes late, if not an outright decision, so take the over.
Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz Betting Pick
Originally, Henry Cejudo was supposed to fight Vera. But when he pulled out last month, Munhoz became the fill-in. Perhaps that’s one reason why Vera is a comfortable betting favorite to win over Munhoz:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | -195 | -195 | -195 |
| Pedro Munhoz | +165 | +165 | +165 |
What’s interesting enough is that both men have a common opponent in the title challenger of the night, O’Malley. Vera handed O’Malley his only career loss, while Munhoz could’ve added a second if not for getting his eye poked, and resulting in a no-contest. That tells you how close each fighter is to the title picture.
In this fight, we’re leaning with Vera to win. Both men prefer to fight on their feet, but we suspect Vera will have the advantage. He struggles against creative fighters that can surprise him while striking. We’re not convinced Munhoz fits that bill. Munhoz’s strikes are rarely unpredictable, which we believe will help Vera pick him apart, hence our pick.
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