Must-Make UFC Fight Night Undercard Picks

Undercard betting is so overlooked by the typical UFC bettor. We’re here to tell you it’s one of the best betting opportunities in the entire sport. That’s especially the case in this upcoming show. For three free undercard bets on UFC Fight Night, keep on reading!

What: UFC Fight Night
Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Saturday, March 2

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Bekzat Almakhan Betting Pick

This show was originally supposed to take place in Saudi Arabia, hence why the card is loaded up with Muslim fighters. No last name is more synonymous with Muslim fighters than Nurmagomedov. Yes, Umar is the cousin of Khabib, and he’s a staggering -1200 favorite over Almakhan here. There's not a lot of money to be made off that so we’re sticking to betting the Nurmagomedov-Almakhan over/under instead. Here’s how it’s being pegged at the top UFC betting sites:

Outcome
Over 1.5 Rounds	-195	-195	-195
Under 1.5 Rounds	+150	+150	+150

The betting lines are actually off on this fight. Almakhan is getting zero respect from oddsmakers. Spoiler alert: this isn’t some bum off the street. Almakhan is a 26-year-old fighter who holds a very respectable 17-1 mark. This is his UFC debut so perhaps that explains why he’s being overlooked this much. But watch the fight tape, this guy can scrap.

In particular, Almakhan is probably a better striker than Nurmagomedov. Now wrestling, of course, we favor the Dagestan fighter. The Nurmagomedov family is truly world-class at wrestling, and Umar is no exception. So we actually expect a very competitive fight come UFC Fight Night.

Still, Nurmagomedov should win. We’re very much in the camp that believes he’ll soon be competing for the bantamweight championship. So our money is going squarely on the over. It’s a high-conviction wager because Almakhan is no jabroni. We predict Nurmagomedov will wrestle Almakhan all three rounds to avoid getting into a striking contest with him, which isn’t a smart idea.

Over 1.5 rounds in Nurmagomedov vs. Almakhan fight

-195

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Vinicius Oliveira vs. Benardo Sopaj Betting Pick

This is last-minute thrown-together bantamweight fight. Originally, Oliveira was scheduled to scrap with Yanis Ghemmouri, however, he backed out for undisclosed reasons. Sopaj fills in on only days' notice,but despite that, this Oliveira-Sopaj is dead even on the odds:

Fighter
Vinicius Oliveira	-110	-110	-110
Benardo Sopaj	-110	-110	-110

This is a fun fight with two young fighters that have some promise. Let’s begin with Oliveira. This is first fight in the “real” UFC after scoring a knockout victory in Dana White’s Contender Series. Knockouts are the MO of Oliveira. He has a 19-3 career record with a whopping 15 of them being KOs. Make no mistake about it, Oliveira very much is a head-hunter when he gets in a ring — which has pros and cons, which we’ll get to it.

As for Sopaj, he’s not afraid to bring the pressure too. He’s only 23 years old and holds a 11-2 mark. This is his UFC debut so for those unaware of his game: it's striking-heavy. This guy has fast hands, and yes, stopping power too. Seven of 11 career wins have ended in KO for Sopaj.

Someone is getting knocked out, plain and simple. Both these fighters are aggressive, perhaps too aggressive. When you get too attack-focused, you leave yourself open for taking a big shot too. So we wouldn’t be against betting the under 1.5 rounds on this fight.

However, the “safer” wager is just taking Oliveira’s moneyline. The short turnaround time should hurt Sopaj. Furthermore, Oliveira is the lot bigger fighter of the two. That matters if the two end up fighting in a phone booth like we expect. Put money on Oliveira dropping Sopaj in this bantamweight clash.

Vinicius Oliveira to beat Bernardo Sopaj

-110

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Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg Betting Pick

Erceg is a comfortable favorite in this flyweight bout. He’s a -360 favorite, a line we’re not in love with. Therefore, we’re jumping on the Erceg-Schnell over/under. Here’s the odds:

Outcome
Over 1.5 Rounds	-130	-130	-130
Under 1.5 Rounds	+100	+100	+100

Both fighters are grappling-based. But here’s the thing: neither is good at actually getting takedowns. Schnell has a 44 percent takedown accuracy, while Erceg is even worse at 33 percent. So we might see some weird striking and bad takedowns.

Still, it will eventually get on the ground and when so, Erceg has the clear upper hand as his jiu-jitsu is superior. But with that said, Schnell is a tough guy. We very much see him going the distance and NOT tapping out early. Therefore, the over bet makes a ton of sense here.

Over 1.5 rounds in Erceg vs. Schnell fight

-130

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How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?

Want to lock in the UFC Fight Night bets we covered above? Or perhaps find even more bets worth putting money on? Hit one of the underneath bookmakers then. Any one of these will have every type of bet you need — not just this show, but other events the UFC puts on this year.

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