Best UFC Bets: Alex Perez vs. Matheus Nicolau Picks

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Apr 25, 2024 08:00 PM
Best UFC Bets: Alex Perez vs. Matheus Nicolau Picks

After a one-week layoff last week, UFC is back with a fight card this week. If you need some betting wins, then keep on reading. We’re giving you three of the best bets to make on the upcoming UFC Vegas 91 card.

  • What: UFC Vegas 91
  • When: Saturday, April 27
  • Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada

Alex Perez vs. Matheus Nicolau Betting Pick

A few weeks ago, this main event was booked for Nicolau and Manel Kape. But if you know anything about Kape, you know he’s practically Mr. Cancellation. Welp, he’s out for the ninth time in his UFC career and in steps in Perez for this flyweight main event against Nicolau.

No surprise, Nicolau is the betting favorite here since he’s had a full training camp. He is -180 on the moneyline, which we’re not in love with. We feel there are better odds out there, which is why we’re betting the Nicolau-Perez over/under instead. Here’s where the odds stand at top UFC betting sites:

OutcomeMyBookieBetUSBetOnline
Over 4.5 Rounds+105+105+105
Under 4.5 Rounds-135-135-135

This should be an exciting fight with serious stoppage potential. Both fighters are superb strikers. We favor Nicolau standing up though. The No. 5-ranked fighter isn’t afraid to let his hands go. Before losing to Brandon Royval last time out, Nicolau was on a six-fight win streak. A few more wins here and the flyweight could compete for a title.

Perez, however, is more dangerous on the ground. Nicolau can takedown and wrestle too, but not at the level of Perez. Perez’s takedown average is 2.26 to Nicolau’s 1.48. But here’s our issue with Perez: he’s lost three in a row. None of his seven career UFC wins came against active UFC fighters.

All this is to say we’re pretty confident that Perez is "over the hill" skills wise. We predict that Nicolau finishes him early in this fight. Therefore, under is the bet to take here.

Under 4.5 rounds in Nicolau vs. Perez fight at UFC Fight Night
-135
BetOnline

Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov Betting Pick

The co-main event features a light heavyweight bout. Here again, the fight is rather one-sided on the moneyline. Spann is almost -200 to win, whereas Guskov +165 to pull off rhe upset. Here again, we lean toward betting the over/under on Spann and Guskov. Here’s where the odds stand:

OutcomeMyBookieBetUSBetOnline
Over 1.5 Rounds+200+200+200
Under 1.5 Rounds-270-270-270

Somebody is likely being finished here based on the caliber of fighter. Spann is more well-known since he’s been with the UFC since 2018. Here you have a lengthy fighter that can throw heavy. Eighteen of Spann’s 21 wins have been by finish. Surprisingly though, more have been via submission (12) than KO (six). Spann often surprises his opponents with a takedown when they’re preoccupied with defending his bog blows.

This is only Guskov’s third UFC fight so he might be unknown to the common better. Let us tell you, he’s a pretty damn good striker that can chain combos together. He has 13 KOs in 15 career wins but it’s been against lesser competition. Guskov is the smaller fighter, but is fully capable of stunning Spann with one big punch.

Despite this, we’re leaning toward betting the over. A finish is still very likely, but just later in the fight. We expect the early going to be competitive before one fighter eventually “figures out” the other and takes advantage in the late rounds. Bet the over here!

Over 1.5 rounds in Spann vs. Guskov fight at UFC Fight Night
+200
BetOnline

Karine Silva vs. Ariane Lipski Betting Pick

Finally, we get a competitive fight in this women’s flyweight clash. Competitive because unlike many of the previous fights we mentioned, both competitors are actually fresh off wins and trending up in this weight class. Because of that, the Silva vs. Lipski moneyline odds are close:

Silva is the slight betting favorite. A quick look at her 17-4 record probably explains why. Get this, Silva has won every single fight by stoppage — nine by knockout and eight by submission. The 30-year-old Brazilian knows only one way to fight: attack and attack some more.

FighterMyBookieBetUSBetOnline
Karine Silva-145-145-145
Ariane Lipski+125+125+125

Lipski, though, has far more UFC fighting experience. The 30-year-old has been fighting with the promotion since 2019. After a shaky early start to her UFC career, she’s rebounded by winning three in a row, all as a betting underdog too. She’s also well-rounded like her opponent that can mix up the striking and grappling, winning with either one.

We expect a back-and-forth affair here but our preferred pick is indeed Silva. We think she’s a rising star at flyweight that could one day compete for a championship. Expect a big showing out of Silva and another stoppage victory from her.

Karine Silva to beat Ariane Lipski at UFC Fight Night
-145
BetOnline

How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?

UFC Fight Night betting opportunities are far and wide besides the three we mentioned. If you want every type of bet available in one spot, we recommend one of the betting sites below. Any one of these sites will have you covered for this show or any other that UFC puts on.

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Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...

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