Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Picks

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Picks

Need help betting on the next UFC Fight Night card? No sweat, we got you covered right here. After analyzing the fight card, we’ve settled on three UFC bets to take for Saturday. Keep reading to get our free picks!

  • What: UFC Fight Night
  • When: Saturday, September 23
  • Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Betting Pick

What a main event this one will be between two lightweights ranked top-10 in the division and not all that used to losing. A quick look at the best UFC betting sites and you’ll see the Fiziev vs. Gamrot moneyline is uber close. Still, Fiziev is a marginal favorite, as seen below:

Rafael Fiziev-150-150-150
Mateusz Gamrot+120+120+120

This is your classic clash of styles fight. The favorite, Fiziev, is one of the best strikers at lightweight — which is saying something. He is coming off a loss to Justin Gaethje but it was a razor-close defeat (some might even argue Fiziev did enough to win). Still, Fiziev stood toe to toe with one of the UFC’s heaviest hitters in Gaethje and never flinched. He truly has excellent Muy Thai and can pick apart most opponents standing up.

Gamrot is a wrestler through and through. He’s averaging 4.54 takedowns per fight. Aside from Beneil Dariush, Gamrot is the finest wrestler in the division. While Fiziev has no takedown offense (0.31 average), he is a surprisingly good defender. He sniffs out takedowns at a 90 percent rate.

We should say though, Gamrot is a “serviceable” stand-up fighter. He won’t be completely outmatched on the feet by Fiziev. Gamrot does have a tendency to get knocked down, but he’s never been finished either. His only two career losses have all been by decision.

Five rounds also has to be accounted for. On one hand, that’s 10 extra minutes for Fiziev to inflict damage on the feet. But the other perspective is that Gamrot could also wear our Fiziev if he’s to take him down. When it’s a fight this close between a wrestler and a striker, we almost always pick the wrestler. The style has repeatedly proven itself as THE X-factor in fights so we’ll ride with Gamrot in this one.

Mateusz Gamrot to beat Rafael Fiziev

Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige Betting Pick

Honestly, a lot of what we said about the main event also applies to the semi-main event featuring a pair of featherweights. Mitchell is a tried-and-true wrestler, whereas Ige is a kickboxing-based striker. This time, it’s the wrestler that’s favored to win as Mitchell is a comfortable -210 on the moneyline:

Bryce Mitchell-210-210-210
Dan Ige+175+175+175

Alright, we’re going to contradict what we said in the previous pick, and this time, choose the striker to win. Here’s why we’re confident in Ige to get the upset: he’s experienced enough to hold off Mitchell’s takedowns. The 32-year-old has been in the octagon with a way higher caliber of opponents than Mitchell — and it’s not even close.

Plus, we have questions about Mitchell after his first career loss to Ilia Topuria. It wasn’t competitive in the slightest and Mitchell went only 1-of-9 on takedowns. Mitchell has zero stand-up game to fall back on too so we fully expect Ige to be able to defend against the leg shooting Mitchell inevitably goes for on Saturday. Bank on Ige to score the upset win here.

Dan Ige to beat Bryce Mitchell

Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson

After betting two straight moneylines, we’re focusing on the Rodriguez-Waterson over/under instead. Here’s how oddsmakers have the line pegged:

Over 2.5 rounds-350-350-350
Under 2.5 rounds+250+250+250

Rodriguez is a convincing favorite to win the fight at almost -300 odds. It certainly makes sense when comparing records as Rodriguez is 16-3 to Waterson’s 18-11. However, Rodriguez has lost two fights in a row and her once-booming career feels like it’s at a crossroads.

Waterson, on the other hand, is a grizzled veteran. She’s fought some of the best women’s fighters of all time — Carla Esparza, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Rose Namajunas, just to name a few. She lost all three, but still, Waterson has been through the fire.

To us, this fight has more stoppage potential than the odds are letting on. Rodriguez is a solid boxer. She’s already beaten Waterson once back in 2021, albeit by decision. If anything, that fight has revealed Waterson tendencies — and vice-versa too. Half of Waterson’s 18 career wins have come via submission so she’s fully capable of ending it early too. We’d throw money on the under if we were you.

Under 2.5 rounds in Rodriguez vs. Waterson fight

How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?

The UFC Fight Night card is stacked with betting opportunities— more so than the three we covered above. To get all UFC Fight Night betting in one spot, hit one of the bookmakers listed below. Moneylines, over/unders, props, and any other type of bet you can think of will be available for betting at these very sites listed.

What’s more, there are big-money promotional bonuses available from site to site. By big money, we’re talking deals that can net as much as $2500 in free play when maxed out. That’s a whole lot of dough to bankroll your UFC betting. See the best bonuses available now in the table underneath.

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...

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