Perhaps the best way to bet on the UFC Fight Night is through the prop market. Why? Because there’s a bunch of high-value bets flying under the radar — until now. In this article, we’re going to share our three favorite props for this UFC card so stick with us!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
- When: September 16, 2023
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso Prop Betting
The fact the rematch between Grasso and Shevchenko is on a free Fight Night card, and not headlining a preview tells you how stacked this show is. Doing this fight now is strategic though because it’s Mexican Independence Day weekend — typically a big boxing night. But Grasso, a Mexico-born star, is UFC’s promotional answer to that tradition. Out of all the Grasso vs. Shevchenko props, which there are many, we’re most interested in how exactly the fight ends. Here’s the betting options:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shevchenko by Stoppage | +225 | +225 | +225 |
| Shevchenko by Decision | +175 | +175 | +175 |
| Draw | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Grasso by Stoppage | +330 | +330 | +330 |
| Grasso by Decision | +350 | +350 | +350 |
These two met just six months ago in March. On that night, Grasso completed the biggest upset in UFC title history (yes, even more than Sean Strickland beating Izzy Adesanya last week). Shevchenko closed as a -1300 favorite but in the fourth round, the champion missed with a swingling leg kick. That was the opening Grasso needed to lock her in a chokehold and force the submission. With that, Shevchenko’s nine-fight winning streak (eight as a champion) came to a shocking end.
Shevchenko is once again the favorite to win, albeit only at -170. But we’ll be upfront and say we don’t quite agree with that line-making. To us, this is Grasso’s fight to lose. Even before the submission, it was a pretty even fight. Grasso, a boxer at heart, was outstriking Shevchenko. We would expect the champion to hold the same advantage in this one if they’re standing up.
Shevchenko might bery well be on the decline. A few years ago, we would’ve said it is foolish to try and hang with Shevchenko on the feet, but not anymore. The 35-year-old has put together the second-best career in women’s fighting history, but it’s also come with a lot of damage. We’re convinced Shevchenko has lost a step. Even before the Grasso defeat, she didn’t look like her usual self in a close decision win over Taila Santos.
So if Grasso wins, the betting question now becomes how? Our gut says the judges will have to decide it. Shevchenko is tough so much she’s only been finished twice in her lengthy career. So it’ll be hard to put her down, but we’re confident Grasso can strike her win to victory and get the decision here.
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland Prop Betting
Here’s a very simple way to bet on Maddalena vs. Holland. This prop bet is strictly concerned with whether it goes the three-round distance or not. As it stands, no is the slight favorite across UFC's best online bookmakers:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +135 | +135 | +135 |
| No | -165 | -165 | -165 |
We can see why not going the distance is favored. That’s because each fighter is very dangerous with their fists. Maddalena is the moneyline favorite and he’s a fighter that’s won 11 of 15 career fights by stoppage. And then there’s Holland, a UFC veteran. He’s also a heavy-handed hitter.
Each fighter, though, is a different type of striker. Holland’s best asset is his accuracy. He won’t throw as many strikes as Maddalena, but the ones that do are probably going to land with pinpoint precision. Holland also is the much longer fighter (with an 8-inch reach advantage). But where Maddalena shines is his pressure. It’s unrelenting, and he’ll likely have a way higher output in the octagon.
Yes, the threat of a KO or TKO is high with two stand-up fighters likely playing rock em sock em robots. However, our money says this goes to the judges. Both Holland and Maddalena are tough — they can deal punishment, but they can receive it too. It’s worth putting money on the yes outdone here.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrance Mitchell Prop Betting
This bet is a tad more of a crapshoot because of all the betting possibilities. Here we’re interested in the Rosas vs. Mitchell round betting — as who wins and what round exactly. The betting choices are as follows:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell In Round 1 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Mitchell In Round 2 | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Mitchell In Round 3 | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Mitchell By Points | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Rosas In Round 1 | -185 | -185 | -185 |
| Rosas In Round 2 | +475 | +475 | +475 |
| Rosas In Round 3 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Rosas By Points | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Draw | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
We’re all-in on Rosas taking this fight quite easily. He just turned 19 years old but has star potential. This fight was booked as a “rebound” for Rosas after losing the first of three career UFC bouts. We fully anticipate him to use his relentless grappling skills to overwhelm Mitchell. A first-round finish is completely within expectation— maybe a second if you feel a tad riskier.
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night Props?
Out of all the sports bet types on UFC this weekend, most will fall under the prop category. Across the 10 fights happening on this card, there are probably close to 100 different prop bets available. If you want to find a complete list of UFC prop bets, then hit one of the bookies listed in the table.
Any one of these sites will be an asset for you when UFC betting — whether that’s now or a future card. Per our sportsbook review section, these five bookmakers lead the industry, in part because of their deep combat sports menus. See for yourself by clicking one of the “play now” buttons below.
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